EME Equity Market – March 2024 Market performance – mixed performances in March, with the Romanian BET outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 0.3% mom in EUR terms and 0.4% mom in USD in March. The Romanian BET reported the strongest performance, adding 7.1% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Czech PX and the Polish WIG20 (+4.1% and 1.0% mom, in EUR terms, respectively). Greece saw a relatively muted performance (-0.2% mom in EUR terms), while Hungary (-1.1% mom in EUR terms) and Tür...
HEADLINES: • InPost: 4Q23 strong, as expected; neutral FY24E guidance; volume acceleration in 1Q24 NEUTRAL • Asseco Poland: 4Q23 review – net profit up 10% yoy, in line with preliminaries; strong 2024 backlog recorded POSITIVE • Echo Investment: 4Q23 – residential good, offices bad NEUTRAL • Athens Exchange Group: 4Q23 results NEUTRAL • LPP: key takeaways from the conference call on the exit from Russia, 2.0 POSITIVE • Kruk: 2023 net profit DPS proposal of PLN 18, in line with our expectations N...
HEADLINES: • Cimsa: announces the completion of the 10.1% SBS shares transfer POSITIVE • InPost: PPF executes only part of the option, at this stage NEUTRAL • Inter Cars: 2024E revenue growth target at 13-15% yoy NEUTRAL • Inter Cars: November sales growth decelerated to a limited 10% yoy NEGATIVE • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (4-10 December) • Hidroelectrica: signs agreement to acquire assets and personnel from manufacturer of hydro equipment NEUTRAL • WOOD's Winter Wonderland EME Con...
A director at Echo Investment S.A. bought 39,400 shares at 4.090PLN and the significance rating of the trade was 54/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years c...
EME Equity Market – September 2023 Market performance – positive developments in Romania and Turkey, declines everywhere else. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 3.7% mom in EUR terms and 6.0% mom in USD in September. Romania took the spotlight, with the BET Index advancing 7.4% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Turkish ISE30 (+4.6% mom). The Polish WIG20 declined the most (-8.7% mom), followed by the Greek ASE, the Hungarian BUX and, finally, the Czech PX (-7.9%, -1.9% and -0.6% mom, respectively).
HEADLINES: • Echo Investment: 2Q23 - weak quarter, as expected NEUTRAL • Polish banks: to face credit holiday extension into 2024E NEUTRAL • CD Projekt: Phantom Liberty gets 88-89/100 Metascore; base game Update 2.0 to be released today NEUTRAL • CEZ: committee postpones debate on Lex CEZ 2.0 until 18 October NEUTRAL • Nuclearelectrica: Canada to support the development of Units 3 & 4 of the Cernavoda NPP with CAD 3bn • Allegro: price hike for monthly Smart! subscription • Short News (DAT, OPL...
EME Equity Market – May 2023 Market performance – in its election month and with talks of a return to investment grade starting to materialise, Greece outperformed, posting a stellar performance. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 2.3% mom in EUR terms, but lost 1.4% mom in USD in May. The Greek ASE Index saw the biggest gains (+12.3% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Hungarian BUX Index (+6.2% mom in EUR terms) and the Turkish ISE 30 Index (+3.4% mom in EUR terms). The remaining geographies finis...
HEADLINES: • PZU: books solid 1Q23 result on strong investment income and solid insurance operations performance POSITIVE • Allegro: 1Q23 results above expectations; guidance for growth slowdown in 2Q23E POSITIVE • Grupa Pracuj: 1Q23 results - adjusted EBITDA up 5% yoy, 8% above the market consensus POSITIVE • Asseco Poland: 1Q23 review - net profit flat yoy, at PLN 108m, in line with preliminary estimate NEUTRAL • CA Immo: 1Q23 - recurring in line, EUR 324m of assets sold at 30%+ premium to bo...
EME Equity Market – March 2023 Market performance – all geographies down in March. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 7.6% mom in EUR terms and 5.7% mom in USD in March. Among a sea of red, Romania’s BET saw the smallest decline (-2.6% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Czech PX Index (-5.5% mom in EUR terms). The Greek ASE and the Hungarian BUX indices saw similar declines (-7.4% and -7.5% mom ,respectively, in EUR terms), while the worst performer for the month was the Turkish ISE30, down 10.5% mo...
HEADLINES: • Ten Square Games: 4Q22 adjusted EBITDA broadly as expected, 1Q23 trading update disappoints slightly NEUTRAL • Sarantis: 2H22 results review - supportive sales, but persistent costs erode yoy profitability • Cyfrowy Polsat: 4Q22 preliminary results review - weak quarter, in line with expectations NEUTRAL • Echo Investment: 4Q22 - revaluation loss, opex and financing costs lower than we expected NEUTRAL • Hungary macro: MNB pushes back against rate cut bets • Huuuge Games: earnings...
EME Equity Market – November 2022 Market performance – Turkey does it again, breezing past everyone else, once more, in November. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced 11.6% mom in EUR terms and 16.7% mom in USD. The ISE30 index, again, boasted the best performance among our coverage, adding 18.6% mom in EUR terms and 23.9% mom in local currency (lcl) terms. Positive performances were also recorded in the WIG (+14.0% EU /13.0% lcl mom), the BUX (+12.6% EUR/12.0% lcl mom), the BET (+8.4% EUR/8.6% lcl...
HEADLINES: • Echo Investment: 3Q22 - beat on revaluation and JV result POSITIVE • CD Projekt: 3Q22 results just in line with our forecasts, no surprises during the earnings call NEUTRAL • PCF Group: 3Q22 EBIT above our forecast, below the consensus, but not game-changing NEUTRAL • PKN Orlen: 3Q22 results • JSW: 3Q22 results review - small P&L beat, strong cash flow generation POSITIVE • Allegro: PLN 2.3bn impairment of Mall Group NEGATIVE • Fondul Proprietatea: Enel's supply and distribution en...
HEADLINES: • Echo Investment: good projects, challenging backdrop (downgraded to HOLD) • GTC: taking profits, after relative outperformance (downgraded to SELL) • Enerjisa Enerji: 3Q22 results review - P&L beat, guidance hiked, FCF turns positive POSITIVE • Wizz Air: 2Q FY23 - headline figures in line, cash position strong NEUTRAL • Czech Republic macro: real GDP slows down sharply in 3Q • Turkish automotive: ADA releases October light vehicle sales data NEUTRAL • The Rear-View Mirror - EME m...
We have downgraded Echo Investment (Echo) to HOLD, setting our 12M price target (PT) at PLN 3.1/share. We see a wide range of outcomes for Echo Investment. On the positive side, there is potentially significant value in Resi4Rent. Successful office disposals could bring the net debt to assets down from the current c.30% to sub-20%, strengthening the balance sheet ahead of new project launches and increasing the dividend capacity. The launch of Towarowa 22 could be positive for sentiment, followi...
HEADLINES: • Coca-Cola Icecek: mispriced given the strength of delivery (stays BUY) • Bank Handlowy: profit warning of 3Q22E trading loss NEUTRAL • Polish residential real estate: hammered • Georgia Capital: launches tender for c.USD 60m of 2024 notes POSITIVE • Fondul Proprietatea: NAV per share as of end-September down 4.5% mom NEUTRAL • Hungary macro: tough funding conditions should force wise policy decisions • 4iG: acquires a 30% stake in INNObyte NEUTRAL • Kalekim: 3Q22 earnings previe...
Apartment sales dropped sharply across Poland in 3Q22. As the pressure from high mortgage rates (c.8%) is exacerbated by the tighter creditworthiness criteria introduced in the spring, the affordability has deteriorated and the market is dominated by cash buyers. Mortgage applications in July and August trailed last year’s levels by around 70%. The market is on a defensive footing, and the priority of the companies is to protect liquidity. There are very few new residential projects being launch...
EME Equity Market – September 2022 Market performance – in a rough month for the markets, Turkey emerges as the top-performing region, once again. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined 8.3% mom in EUR terms and 10.7% mom in USD in September; while the ISE index outperformed all the other indices once again, but with a muted performance this time, adding just 1.0% mom in EUR terms and 0.1% in local currency terms. All the other indices recorded negative performances, with the Czech PX Index losing 4....
HEADLINES: • Turkish oil and gas: margin calls (Tupras stays BUY, Petkim downgraded to HOLD) • Hungary macro: MPC raises the policy rate to 13.00% and signals a shift of focus • mBank: to book PLN 2.3bn in FX mortgage litigation risk provisions in 3Q22E NEUTRAL • Echo: 2Q22 results - strong margin on apartments handed over, low overheads, small revaluation loss POSITIVE • Grupa Pracuj: key takeaways from the 2Q22 earnings call POSITIVE • Kofola: key takeaways from the Seznam Zprav interview wi...
EME Equity Market – May 2022 Market performance – markets down mostly, as MSCI EM Europe Index declines 3.6%. The MSCI EM Europe Index fell 3.6% mom and 2.0% mom in EUR and USD terms, respectively, in May. The best-performing index was the Russian MOEX, which added 6.3% mom in EUR terms, but declined 3.7% mom in local currency. However, we note that, with the CBR ban on short selling and restrictions on international investors, as well various sanctions, this performance is not fully comparable ...
HEADLINES: • Bank of Georgia: 1Q22 review • Magyar Telekom: 1Q22 results, strong with 24% yoy EBITDA growth, 5% above consensus POSITIVE • Nuclearelectrica: 14% higher than expected 1Q22 reported net profit • Bucharest Stock Exchange: 1Q22 results review - very strong numbers as volatility has increased POSITIVE • Cyfrowy Polsat: 1Q22 organic EBITDA down 12% yoy to PLN 801m, in line with our expectations NEGATIVE • Enea: 1Q22 results review - strong EBITDA reading driven by generation and mi...
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