HEADLINES: • EMEA airlines: disruption in Middle East operations • Romanian banks: draft government plan suggests new tax on banks is being considered • MOL: to acquire Budapest University of Technology and Economics NEGATIVE • Graphisoft Park: sells residential land plot POSITIVE • CEZ: AGM approves dividend of CZK 47/share NEUTRAL • OMV Petrom: to invest in solar power plant in Bulgaria NEUTRAL • OPAP: Greece invites bidders for State lotteries licence NEUTRAL • Short News (BFT, CDR)
EME Equity Market – May 2025 EME indices mostly in the green in May, apart from Türkiye. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 3.6% mom in EUR and USD terms. The Greek ASE index (+7.8% mom) was the best performer, followed by the Czech PX (+6.6% mom) and Romanian BET indices (+5.0% mom), the Hungarian BUX (+4.0% mom) and the Polish WIG20 (+2.0% mom; all in EUR terms). The Turkish ISE30 Index was, again, the worst performer, with a more modest decline (-1.4% mom in EUR terms) this time.
HEADLINES: • Magyar Telekom: 1Q25 results review – EBITDA +24% yoy, 4% above the consensus; solid 2025E guidance reiterated POSITIVE • Ignitis Group: 1Q25 adjusted EBITDA 20% above our expectations, driven by strong Green Capacities POSITIVE • Graphisoft Park: 1Q25 – recurring income higher yoy, and a small revaluation loss • Aquila Part Prod Com S.A.: strong 1Q25 gross profit margin sustainable in FY25E POSITIVE • InPost: 1Q25 in line with expectations; FY25E EBITDA guidance maintained; soft do...
Graphisoft Park has booked a steady stream of recurring income, with the FFO at around EUR 4m in 1Q25, double-digit growth yoy and ahead of our estimate. The bottom line was affected negatively by a small revaluation loss (EUR 7m, or c.3% of the value of the portfolio). We are not very troubled by the effect on the book value, but we do share concerns regarding the risk premium that investors may apply for Hungarian assets, the low investment liquidity (suggesting a lack of buyers), and the heav...
EME Equity Market – February 2025 Poland outperforms, again; Türkiye declines. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced by 3.1% in EUR terms and 2.9% mom in USD terms in February. The Polish WIG20 was, once again, the best performer, adding 7.3% mom in February; followed by the Czech PX Index (+6.1% mom); while Greece (+3.8% mom), Hungary (+3.5% mom) and Romania (+3.0% mom) all reported rather similar performances. The Turkish ISE30 was the worst performer, declining 4.5% mom.
HEADLINES: • Wizz Air: knocked out, beat down, black and blue (stays BUY) • Graphisoft Park: 4Q24 results, and another strong year • MOL: 4Q24 results below expectations, posts a net loss NEGATIVE • NLB Group: bottom-line miss in 4Q24, but equity story remains intact NEUTRAL • Metlen Energy & Metals: 2024 EBITDA +7%, to EUR 1.1bn, as expected NEUTRAL • Akcansa: proposed dividend almost in line with our estimate NEUTRAL • Piraeus Financial Holdings: 4Q24E preview (due on 24 February) NEUTRAL • Gr...
Despite the initially cautious management guidance, Graphisoft Park (GSPARK) has delivered another strong year in 2024, with its FFO exceeding EUR 14m. Even after the stock’s recent rally, the company still offers a >10% FFO yield, ranking among the most attractively-valued real estate plays under our coverage and, we believe, in Europe. Weak economic growth in Hungary and a wave of new office developments planned in Budapest for 2025-26E pose risks, potentially keeping vacancy rates elevated an...
EME Equity Market – November 2024 Rebound in Türkiye, Romania hammered. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced 3.8% in EUR terms and 1.0% in USD terms in November. The Turkish ISE30 recouped the losses of the previous month, adding 10.4% mom in EUR terms. The Hungarian BUX added 4.3% mom in EUR terms, followed by the PX (+2.9% mom), the ASE (+0.8% mom) and the WIG (+0.8% mom) (all in EUR terms). Following the first round of presidential elections, and the polemic and uncertainty that ensued, the BET ...
HEADLINES: • Athens Exchange Group: set sail to dividend wonderland (BUY - transfer of coverage) • EME Macro/Strategy: Central Asia and the Caucasus – USD 1,000bn GDP by 2030! • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one – the Year-Ahead issue • Graphisoft Park: 3Q24 – on course for another good year POSITIVE • Bank Handlowy: rather neutral set of 3Q24 results NEUTRAL • Pegasus Airlines: 3Q24 – 22% higher CASKX alleviated by 4% higher RASK and 12% lower fuel CASK (in line with the consensus) • Bank of...
3Q24 saw another good set of results from Graphisoft Park. The FFO delivery was in line with the same pace as previous quarters, translating into a double-digit FFO yield, one of the highest in the sector. Even after its strong share price performance, the stock is still trading at over a 30% discount to the NAV, and it remains one of our favourite real estate names in CEE. The planned launch of the residential for sale development in the Southern Area of the Park may be positive for momentum. W...
EME Equity Market – October 2024 A red October for the EME indices, only Czechia in positive territory. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 6.0% in EUR terms and 8.4% in USD terms in October. The Czech PX index was the only one spared, adding 1.3% mom in EUR terms. Türkiye was battered the most, with the Turkish ISE30 declining by 7.3% mom in EUR terms, followed closely by the Polish WIG20 (-6.7% mom in EUR terms). Greece fell 4.8% mom in EUR terms, while the Hungarian BUX index lost 2.7% mom i...
HEADLINES: • Graphisoft Park: still great value (stays BUY) • OMV: 3Q24 trading statement NEUTRAL • OMV Petrom: 3Q24 trading statement NEUTRAL • Wirtualna Polska: real users in September 2024 NEGATIVE • Polish telecoms: mobile number portability in 3Q24 NEUTRAL • EME macro/strategy: macro all-in-one (30 September-6 October)
We reiterate our BUY rating on Graphisoft Park (GSPARK), increasing our 12M PT to EUR 13.0/share. Even with its low leverage (2Q24 net LTV of 32%), GSPARK generates 8-9% FFO ROE, one of the highest among the European landlords. Trading at a >30% discount to book, this translates into an FFO yield in the mid-teens, well ahead of its cost of equity, which we estimate at c.9-10%. GSPARK plans to build around 150 apartments in the Southern area of the Park. We expect to learn more details about the ...
HEADLINES: • Graphisoft Park: 2Q24 – steady results, guidance reviewed slightly upwards • DIGI Communications: 2Q24 results – adjusted EBITDA up 16% yoy, 1% above our estimate POSITIVE • Telecom Egypt: 2Q24 results review – EBITDA up 40% yoy, 7% above our estimate POSITIVE • Romgaz: 2Q24 results NEUTRAL • Pegasus Airlines: 2Q24 – RASK (up 4% yoy) ahead of our and the consensus estimates POSITIVE • Pegasus Airlines: erratum • Georgia Capital: takeaways from the 2Q24 earnings call NEUTRAL • DataWa...
Since the beginning of the year, Graphisoft Park’s shares have been trading around EUR 9/share. In July, the share price rerated, to EUR 10-11/share. We are not sure whether there has been a specific driver behind the step up. It is possible that the market may have been reacting to the plans regarding the potential development of apartments, which could boost the mid-term earnings and cash flows. It is also possible that recent shareholding changes (a large existing shareholder increasing its s...
EME Equity Market – May 2024 Turkish equities lead, in the mostly green month of May. The MSCI EM Europe Index rose by 0.7% mom in EUR terms and 1.8% mom in LCU terms in May. The Turkish ISE30 index reported the strongest performance, adding 3.6% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Romanian BET and the Czech PX (+2.7% and 2.1% mom in EUR terms, respectively). The Hungarian BUX index and the Polish WIG20 remained broadly flat (+0.4% and +0.2% mom in EUR terms, respectively); although, in LCU terms,...
HEADLINES: • InPost: strong 1Q24, as expected; FY24E guidance maintained; slight volume deceleration in 2Q24 so far POSITIVE • Graphisoft Park: 1Q24 – occupancy and results stable so far; guidance maintained POSITIVE • Sphera Group: 1Q24 above our expectations POSITIVE • Hidroelectrica: 1Q24 – lower power prices offset by no tax on producers NEGATIVE • DIGI Communications: 1Q24 results – adjusted EBITDA up 22% yoy, 6% above our estimate POSITIVE • AROBS Transilvania Software: weak 1Q24 results, ...
Graphisoft Park has published a stable set of 1Q24 results, but maintained its guidance, noting the lower occupancy and higher costs, weighing on the FFO in 2024E. In the last 12 months, the company has generated FFO of EUR 15m, which represents a 16-17% FFO yield on its market cap of less than EUR 100m. We maintain our view that Graphisoft Park remains one of the most obviously under-valued real estate companies in CEE, for the earnings that it offers. The company announced that it is looking i...
EME Equity Market – February 2024 Market performance – a positive February, with the Polish WIG20 outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 4.2% mom in EUR terms and 3.7% mom in USD in February. The Polish WIG20 saw the strongest performance, adding 6.4% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Greek ASE (+4.2% mom), the Turkish ISE30 (+4.0% mom) and the Romanian BET (+2.6% mom) (all in EUR terms). There was a relatively muted performance in Hungary (+0.6% mom in EUR terms) and a decline in the Cze...
HEADLINES: • Graphisoft Park: 4Q23 – another year of growing earnings, FFO approaching EUR 15m in 2023 POSITIVE • NEPI Rockcastle: 2H23 – NOI grows by 13% yoy in 2023, on strong tenant sales POSITIVE • Bank of Cyprus: 4Q23 highlights and 2024E guidance POSITIVE • Coca-Cola Icecek: completes acquisition of Coca-Cola Bangladesh Beverages Ltd NEUTRAL • DIGI Communications: 4Q23E preview – 13% yoy EBITDA growth expected (due 28 February) • Sipchem: 4Q23E results preview (due on 28 February) NEUTRAL ...
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