HEADLINES: • Athens Exchange Group: set sail to dividend wonderland (BUY - transfer of coverage) • EME Macro/Strategy: Central Asia and the Caucasus – USD 1,000bn GDP by 2030! • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one – the Year-Ahead issue • Graphisoft Park: 3Q24 – on course for another good year POSITIVE • Bank Handlowy: rather neutral set of 3Q24 results NEUTRAL • Pegasus Airlines: 3Q24 – 22% higher CASKX alleviated by 4% higher RASK and 12% lower fuel CASK (in line with the consensus) • Bank of...
3Q24 saw another good set of results from Graphisoft Park. The FFO delivery was in line with the same pace as previous quarters, translating into a double-digit FFO yield, one of the highest in the sector. Even after its strong share price performance, the stock is still trading at over a 30% discount to the NAV, and it remains one of our favourite real estate names in CEE. The planned launch of the residential for sale development in the Southern Area of the Park may be positive for momentum. W...
EME Equity Market – October 2024 A red October for the EME indices, only Czechia in positive territory. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 6.0% in EUR terms and 8.4% in USD terms in October. The Czech PX index was the only one spared, adding 1.3% mom in EUR terms. Türkiye was battered the most, with the Turkish ISE30 declining by 7.3% mom in EUR terms, followed closely by the Polish WIG20 (-6.7% mom in EUR terms). Greece fell 4.8% mom in EUR terms, while the Hungarian BUX index lost 2.7% mom i...
HEADLINES: • Graphisoft Park: still great value (stays BUY) • OMV: 3Q24 trading statement NEUTRAL • OMV Petrom: 3Q24 trading statement NEUTRAL • Wirtualna Polska: real users in September 2024 NEGATIVE • Polish telecoms: mobile number portability in 3Q24 NEUTRAL • EME macro/strategy: macro all-in-one (30 September-6 October)
We reiterate our BUY rating on Graphisoft Park (GSPARK), increasing our 12M PT to EUR 13.0/share. Even with its low leverage (2Q24 net LTV of 32%), GSPARK generates 8-9% FFO ROE, one of the highest among the European landlords. Trading at a >30% discount to book, this translates into an FFO yield in the mid-teens, well ahead of its cost of equity, which we estimate at c.9-10%. GSPARK plans to build around 150 apartments in the Southern area of the Park. We expect to learn more details about the ...
HEADLINES: • Graphisoft Park: 2Q24 – steady results, guidance reviewed slightly upwards • DIGI Communications: 2Q24 results – adjusted EBITDA up 16% yoy, 1% above our estimate POSITIVE • Telecom Egypt: 2Q24 results review – EBITDA up 40% yoy, 7% above our estimate POSITIVE • Romgaz: 2Q24 results NEUTRAL • Pegasus Airlines: 2Q24 – RASK (up 4% yoy) ahead of our and the consensus estimates POSITIVE • Pegasus Airlines: erratum • Georgia Capital: takeaways from the 2Q24 earnings call NEUTRAL • DataWa...
Since the beginning of the year, Graphisoft Park’s shares have been trading around EUR 9/share. In July, the share price rerated, to EUR 10-11/share. We are not sure whether there has been a specific driver behind the step up. It is possible that the market may have been reacting to the plans regarding the potential development of apartments, which could boost the mid-term earnings and cash flows. It is also possible that recent shareholding changes (a large existing shareholder increasing its s...
EME Equity Market – May 2024 Turkish equities lead, in the mostly green month of May. The MSCI EM Europe Index rose by 0.7% mom in EUR terms and 1.8% mom in LCU terms in May. The Turkish ISE30 index reported the strongest performance, adding 3.6% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Romanian BET and the Czech PX (+2.7% and 2.1% mom in EUR terms, respectively). The Hungarian BUX index and the Polish WIG20 remained broadly flat (+0.4% and +0.2% mom in EUR terms, respectively); although, in LCU terms,...
HEADLINES: • InPost: strong 1Q24, as expected; FY24E guidance maintained; slight volume deceleration in 2Q24 so far POSITIVE • Graphisoft Park: 1Q24 – occupancy and results stable so far; guidance maintained POSITIVE • Sphera Group: 1Q24 above our expectations POSITIVE • Hidroelectrica: 1Q24 – lower power prices offset by no tax on producers NEGATIVE • DIGI Communications: 1Q24 results – adjusted EBITDA up 22% yoy, 6% above our estimate POSITIVE • AROBS Transilvania Software: weak 1Q24 results, ...
Graphisoft Park has published a stable set of 1Q24 results, but maintained its guidance, noting the lower occupancy and higher costs, weighing on the FFO in 2024E. In the last 12 months, the company has generated FFO of EUR 15m, which represents a 16-17% FFO yield on its market cap of less than EUR 100m. We maintain our view that Graphisoft Park remains one of the most obviously under-valued real estate companies in CEE, for the earnings that it offers. The company announced that it is looking i...
EME Equity Market – February 2024 Market performance – a positive February, with the Polish WIG20 outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 4.2% mom in EUR terms and 3.7% mom in USD in February. The Polish WIG20 saw the strongest performance, adding 6.4% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Greek ASE (+4.2% mom), the Turkish ISE30 (+4.0% mom) and the Romanian BET (+2.6% mom) (all in EUR terms). There was a relatively muted performance in Hungary (+0.6% mom in EUR terms) and a decline in the Cze...
HEADLINES: • Graphisoft Park: 4Q23 – another year of growing earnings, FFO approaching EUR 15m in 2023 POSITIVE • NEPI Rockcastle: 2H23 – NOI grows by 13% yoy in 2023, on strong tenant sales POSITIVE • Bank of Cyprus: 4Q23 highlights and 2024E guidance POSITIVE • Coca-Cola Icecek: completes acquisition of Coca-Cola Bangladesh Beverages Ltd NEUTRAL • DIGI Communications: 4Q23E preview – 13% yoy EBITDA growth expected (due 28 February) • Sipchem: 4Q23E results preview (due on 28 February) NEUTRAL ...
Trading at 0.5-0.6x P/NAV, we continue to see Graphisoft Park as attractively valued in the context of listed European real estate – especially considering its unique portfolio of buildings, booked at around an 8% yield on the gross rental income. The proposed dividend translates into almost an 8% yield. With almost a 50% payout of the EPRA earnings, Graphisoft Park could either continue to deleverage, it could expand its portfolio via developments, or it could increase the payout, potentially p...
EME Equity Market – November 2023 Market performance – Greeks in the lead, in a month with only green across the region. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 5.6% mom in EUR terms and 8.7% mom in USD in November. The Greek ASE Index was the top performer in our region (+6.9% mom), followed by the Polish WIG20 (+5.5% mom) and the Hungarian BUX (+4.0% mom). The Czech PX Index saw the most muted performance, advancing 2.8% mom.
HEADLINES: • Aegean Airlines: en route to the best year on record, by far (stays HOLD) • Alro: deep net loss of RON 230m in 3Q23 NEGATIVE • Nuclearelectrica: 3Q23 reported net profit 4% lower yoy, fully in line with our estimate NEUTRAL • Banca Transilvania: solid 3Q23 results, but spoiled, once again, by the Volksbank saga • Graphisoft Park: 3Q23 - steady as she goes • OTE: key takeaways from the 3Q23 earnings call NEUTRAL • MedLife: targeting return to c.15% EBITDA margins NEUTRAL • ADNOC D...
The occupancy of Graphisoft Park’s offices has remained stable, so far, at a very high level of 97% throughout 9M23. The portfolio seems to be en route to generate FFO of around EUR 14m both this and likely also next year (even when factoring in some deterioration in the occupancy, going forward). This translates into an FFO yield of around 16-17% on the current share price (0.5x P/NAV). While the yield adjustment across European real estate may continue into 2024E, we maintain our view that Gra...
EME Equity Market – August 2023 Market performance – Turkey the top performer in August, once again. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 0.7% mom in EUR terms and 2.2% mom in USD in August. Turkey, yet again, outperformed its peers, with the ISE30 gaining 9.4% mom in EUR terms. The Hungarian BUX index saw a solid performance in August, adding 6.1% mom in EUR terms, while the Romanian BET had a lacklustre month, barely making any gains (0.1% mom in EUR terms). Elsewhere, the index performances were neg...
HEADLINES: • OTP Bank: beats expectations with 2Q23 delivery, implies massive upside risk to FY23E expectations • CEZ: strong 2Q beat on trading, EBITDA and net guidance unchanged POSITIVE • Graphisoft Park: 2Q23 - occupancy stable, FFO yield at 17%, developments could push it up to 20+% POSITIVE • CTP: 2Q23 - recurring in line, FFO guidance reiterated, leasing backdrop supportive, LTV contained POSITIVE • Magyar Telekom: 2Q23 results review - adjusted EBITDA +19% yoy to HUF 83.4bn, 4% above ou...
Graphisoft Park has reported yet another set of good results. The annualised 2Q23 FFO translates into a 17% yield on the current share price. With its portfolio booked at around an 8% yield, the valuations offer a tangible buffer over the c.5.75-6.5% prime yield reported for Budapest offices by leading realtors. While we cannot rule out further yield expansion, the almost full occupancy of the Park seems a testament to tenants’ loyalty. This could mean that continued rental growth, driven by ind...
EME Equity Market – May 2023 Market performance – in its election month and with talks of a return to investment grade starting to materialise, Greece outperformed, posting a stellar performance. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 2.3% mom in EUR terms, but lost 1.4% mom in USD in May. The Greek ASE Index saw the biggest gains (+12.3% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Hungarian BUX Index (+6.2% mom in EUR terms) and the Turkish ISE 30 Index (+3.4% mom in EUR terms). The remaining geographies finis...
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