We lower our estimates and target price to reflect last week's substantial profit warning in Umicore's Battery Materials division. Given the current challenges in the EV supply chain as well as uncertainty on Umicore's strategy in Battery Materials, we stick to our HOLD and lower our target price from €19.00 to €16.00.
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One month after the surprising CEO change, Umicore issued a severe profit warning on the back of lower EV demand growth, which prompted us to lower our FY24 adjusted EBITDA forecast by about 15%. Umicore announced it will re-assess its mid to long term growth ambitions and we have already taken a more conservative approach with our FY30 CAM volume estimate now at 250 GWh, vs 300 GWh previously and the company's current official target of 400 GWh. Even with our lowered forecasts, vehicle electrif...
>Battery Material woes result in material lower 2024-2026 estimates - We have adjusted our 2024 estimates for E&ST, in line with the updated guidance for Battery Materials and we are now, for Umicore as a whole, at €768m, the lower end of the updated 2024 adj. EBITDA guidance of €760m to €800m. The faster than expected decline in volume from mid-nickel chemistry contracts and the slower ramp-up (or delays) of the high nickel chemistry contracts also impacts our 2025 a...
The formation of alliances to Macron's left and right reduces his leeway and increases the risk of a cohabitation, a priori probably with a Prime Minister from the Rassemblement National (National Rally). Equity markets are more visibly affected by these developments. Reduce positions in French names linked to government intervention, the most heavily indebted sectors. We are adjusting our vision of sector risks flagged on Monday morning. The sectors most at risk are: banks, construct...
La constitution d’alliances à gauche et à droite de Macron réduit sa marge de manœuvre politique et augmente le risque d’une cohabitation, a priori plutôt avec un Premier Ministre issu du Rassemblement National. Les marchés actions accusent davantage le coup. Alléger ses positions sur les noms français liés à l’intervention étatique, les secteurs les plus endettés. Nous ajustons notre vision des risques sectoriels de lundi matin. Les secteurs les plus à risque sont : Banques, Construc...
>Adverse developments in Battery Materials - Due to mid nickel chemistry contracts ending sooner and delays in the scaling up of new contracts, Umicore is adjusting the EBITDA guidance for the Battery Materials unit from €135m positive to break-even (including a €50m one off), also indicating that volumes in 2024 will be lower than in 2023. As we had outlined in our April 29 note, the so called guard rails that Umicore referred to when discussing its contracts in Batt...
Umicore lowered FY24 adjusted EBITDA guidance from € 900-950m to € 760-800m, fully attributable to lower than expected top and bottom line growth in the Battery Materials business. The FY24 capex budget is being cut by c. € 200m to not exceeding € 650m and the reassessment of mid to long term growth in Battery Materials is ongoing, with the new CEO still convinced Umicore has the right to play in this space across all drivetrains. We already lowered our mid- to long-term forecasts after the rece...
• Umicore lowers its FY24 guidance that Battery materials will be around breakeven instead of an EBITDA of around EUR 135m due to a severe slowdown in the EV market.• We had already lowered our estimates for Battery materials recently, but today's news shows that the impact is much more severe than we feared. • We put our estimates and TP under review.
1M Performance - Absolute: Over the last 1M period, the KBCS Holdings Universe posted a return of -0.9% which was mainly driven by multi-asset holdings (-1.3%) while single-asset holdings posted a positive return of +0.6%. The 3 top performers during the period were Solvac (+8.0%), Gimv (+5.5%), and Compagnie du Bois Sauvage (+5.3%) while the 3 worst performers were HAL Trust (-6.5%), D'Ieteren Group (-1.8%), and Texaf (-1.1%). YTD Performance - Relative: On a YTD basis, the KBCS Holdings Univ...
EVS Communicates the Results of the Extraordinary General Meeting of June 10, 2024 Publication on June 10, 2024, after market closureRegulated informationEVS Broadcast Equipment S.A.: Euronext Brussels (EVS.BR), Bloomberg (EVS BB), Reuters (EVSB.BR) EVS COMMUNICATES THE RESULTS OF THE EXTRAORDINARY GENERAL MEETING OF JUNE 10, 2024 EVS Broadcast Equipment SA, leading provider of live video production systems, held a postponed Extraordinary General Meeting on June 10, 2024 (due to the lack of attendance quorum at the Extraordinary General Meeting convened on May 21, 2024). In total 116 ...
Umicore's sudden management change, the subsequent battery segment review and the current malaise in the European EV supply chain are raising key questions regarding Umicore's ambitions in battery materials. With this update, we lower our target price to €19 per share, on the back of reduced estimates and a lower target multiple for the Battery Materials division. With Umicore's strategic direction unclear until an update due on 26 July, we remain at HOLD.
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