HEADLINES: • Poland macro: NBP on a protracted hold • NEPI Rockcastle: sells Promenada Novi Sad in Serbia for EUR 177m POSITIVE • Text: key takeaways from the 1Q24-25 preliminary earnings call POSITIVE • Bank Millennium: to book PLN 518m of FX mortgage saga provisions in 2Q24E NEUTRAL • Auto Partner: June sales growth at 11% yoy, below our expectations NEGATIVE • Polish telecoms: mobile number portability in 2Q24 NEUTRAL • Elm: announces resignation of CEO and new CEO appointment NEUTRAL • Greek...
HEADLINES: • Text: 1Q24-25 (calendar 2Q24) preliminary results – USD 22.6m preliminary cash flow (up 12% yoy, 4% qoq) POSITIVE • Motor Oil Hellas: to sell EUR 18.2m worth of Ellaktor shares (ELLAKTOR GA), as Reggeborgh exercises call option POSITIVE • ADNOC Drilling: awarded USD 733m contract for three new rigs POSITIVE • Krka: 2018 appeal against EU perindopril anticompetition case overturned NEUTRAL • Short News (HTO)
A director at MBank S.A. sold 926 shares at 635.830PLN and the significance rating of the trade was 60/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly showin...
EME Equity Market – June 2024 Another positive month for most of the EME indices, with the Hungarian BUX Index outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index rose by 1.0% in EUR terms, but declined -0.2% in USD terms in June. The Hungarian BUX index reported the strongest performance, adding 4.8% in EUR terms, followed by the Romanian BET and the Polish WIG20 (+3.7% and 2.1%, in EUR terms, respectively), and the Turkish ISE30 (+0.9% in EUR terms). Greece and the Czech Republic were in negative territor...
HEADLINES: • Text: 4Q23-24 (calendar 1Q24) results – EBITDA down 12% yoy, 11% below our forecast NEGATIVE • Türkiye macro: giving credit where credit is due, but keep realistic lags in mind • PKO BP: partial resolutions of AGM, dividend approved, AGM paused • Poland macro: CPI well-behaved, wage growth still soaring • Santander Bank Polska: 2Q24 CHF mortgage saga charges of PLN 1,109m NEUTRAL • Wizz Air: calls to improve Air Traffic Control in Europe in wake of delays NEGATIVE • Public Power Cor...
HEADLINES: • mBank: 2Q24E CHF mortgage saga cost at PLN 1bn NEGATIVE • CTP: issues EUR 500m unsecured loan at 4.7% fixed, buys back EUR 500m of outstanding bonds POSITIVE • Europe macro: June surveys confirm stagnant industry, but rising inflation expectations • Türkiye macro: CBT extends the hawkish hold • Czech Republic macro: CNB preparing the ground for slower rate cuts • Warsaw Stock Exchange: OGM approves dividend of PLN 3/share NEUTRAL • Cyfrowy Polsat: to invest in 500 MW wind farm proje...
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: how big should the political risk premium in Europe be? • Lamda Development: 1Q24 – with the wind in its sails • BIM: strong set of results in 1Q24 POSITIVE • LPP: 1Q24 strong, as expected; FY24E guidance maintained POSITIVE • CCC: 1Q24 results in line with prelims; positive trends maintained in 2Q24 NEUTRAL • US macro: Fed pushes back on rate cuts • Jahez: announces SAR 150m real estate purchase NEUTRAL • Text: 4Q23-24E preview – 1% yoy EBITDA drop expected (due...
HEADLINES: • NLB Group: a tale of growth and expansion (BUY - transfer of coverage) • Greek banks: SSM greenlights banks' dividend distributions POSITIVE • Poland macro: NBP extends the pause • Piraeus Financial Holdings: revises 2024E guidance up POSITIVE • Auto Partner: May sales up by a limited 7% yoy NEGATIVE • Global airlines: French ATC strikes prompt Ryanair to call on EU to take action to protect freedom of movement NEGATIVE • mBank: announces path for succession in Management Board NEUT...
EME Equity Market – May 2024 Turkish equities lead, in the mostly green month of May. The MSCI EM Europe Index rose by 0.7% mom in EUR terms and 1.8% mom in LCU terms in May. The Turkish ISE30 index reported the strongest performance, adding 3.6% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Romanian BET and the Czech PX (+2.7% and 2.1% mom in EUR terms, respectively). The Hungarian BUX index and the Polish WIG20 remained broadly flat (+0.4% and +0.2% mom in EUR terms, respectively); although, in LCU terms,...
HEADLINES: • Allegro: 1Q24 strong, as expected, guidance for GMV acceleration in 2Q24E POSITIVE • Turkish Airlines: 1Q24 – revenue up, but EBITDA down yoy, as ex-fuel CASK up in mid-single digits, but RASK down 6% yoy NEUTRAL • Coca-Cola Icecek: strong operating results in 1Q24 POSITIVE • Tupras: 1Q24 results – weak results, on maintenance NEGATIVE • Logo Yazilim: 1Q24 results – on track POSITIVE • Cyfrowy Polsat: 1Q24 results review – adjusted EBITDA +1% yoy, 2% above our estimate POSITIVE • In...
After some relief for markets on the data front this week, a period of quiet in terms of macro news should offer a further window for new supply to come from EM issuers ahead of an expected summer lull. Spread levels remain well anchored and EM credit should continue to see robust demand from yield-seeking investors.
HEADLINES: • mBank: solid 1Q24 results justify one of the top market valuations (1Q24 P/BV of 2.1x) POSITIVE • OTP Bank: books solid 1Q24, keeps 2024E guidance unchanged NEUTRAL • Bank Millennium: 1Q24 results in line • CCC: 40% EBITDA beat in 1Q24, on opex control POSITIVE • Dino: 2-7% EBITDA miss in 1Q24 NEGATIVE • AmRest: 1Q24 broadly in line with our forecasts, but below the consensus NEGATIVE • MOL: 1Q24 results – EBITDA below expectations on maintenance NEUTRAL • MedLife: 1Q24 results poin...
HEADLINES: • mBank: revises up 1Q24 FX mortgage saga costs NEUTRAL • GEVORKYAN: 4Q23 results broadly in line; new contracts from Poland and Sweden NEUTRAL • DataWalk: preliminary 1Q24 results – sales up 100% yoy, to PLN 6.43m POSITIVE • DataWalk: key takeaways from the 1Q24 preliminary earnings call POSITIVE • Wirtualna Polska: real users in April 2024 NEUTRAL • Wirtualna Polska: 1Q24E preview – 9% yoy adjusted EBITDA growth expected (due on 21 May) • Grupa Pracuj: 1Q24E results preview – flat y...
EME Equity Market – April 2024 Market performance – green across all geographies, with Turkey outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index was up 5.3% mom in EUR terms and 4.2% mom in USD in April; while the Turkish ISE30 saw the strongest performance, adding 11.6% mom; followed by the Hungarian BUX (+5.0% mom); the Czech PX (+2.8% mom); the Greek ASE (+1.8% mom), the Polish WIG20 (+1.2% mom) and the Romanian BET (+0.1% mom) (all in EUR terms).
HEADLINES: • Arcelik: weak bottom-line performance in 1Q24 NEGATIVE • Sipchem: 1Q24 results – weak net income NEGATIVE • Kruk: issues flash 1Q24 net profit of PLN 338m NEUTRAL • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (22-28 April) • Türkiye macro: MPC takes a pause, but hiking cycle not over yet • OTP Bank: CEO Csanyi speaks at AGM on future acquisitions and Russian exposure POSITIVE • Budimex: BXF Energia acquires 60 MW photovoltaic project NEUTRAL • Inter Cars: dividend policy for 2023-25E and p...
• LPP: the glass is half full (stays BUY) • Eurocash: 4Q23 beat on costs, profit warning for 1Q24E • 11 bit studios: 4Q23 adjusted EBITDA beats expectations on a solid top line • Polish banks: 2024 contributions to the BFG • MOL: oil production starts on a new platform at ACG field • Ford Otosan: completes the Eurobond book-building process • Kalekim: 2023 IAS 29 results - strong operating results • Lamda: 4Q23 results - a significant step-up in Ellinikon revenues, revaluation gain on existing m...
HEADLINES: • Greek banks: life after the windfall (Alpha, Eurobank, NBG and Piraeus – transfer of coverage) • Cyfrowy Polsat: key takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings call NEUTRAL • Orlen: announces PLN 1.6bn of probable trading losses NEGATIVE • ING BSK: AGM approves PLN 33.35 DPS NEUTRAL • Public Power Corporation: partners with Mytilineos for 2GW solar portfolio NEUTRAL • InPost: PPF realises option to buy 10% stake • ONE United Properties: founders and others selling up to 9.5% in ABB • PKO BP: ...
HEADLINES: • Middle Eastern Oil Services: we’re going with what’s growing (ADNOC Drilling upgraded to BUY, Arabian Drilling downgraded to HOLD) • Public Power Corporation: 4Q23 earnings review NEUTRAL • Kruk: 1Q24 trading update shows strong recoveries POSITIVE • Budimex: 4Q23 figures in line with the preliminary guidance NEUTRAL • Budimex: management recommends PLN 35.69 DPS (5% dividend yield), above our expectations POSITIVE • Polish utilities: Industry Ministry plans to link mines to coal-fi...
HEADLINES: • OMV Petrom: 1Q24 trading statement POSITIVE • OMV: 1Q24 trading statement NEUTRAL • Bank Millennium: 1Q24E CHF mortgage saga provisions land at PLN 507m NEUTRAL • Polish gencos: IndMin floats notion of alternative solution to the NABE NEUTRAL • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (1-7 April) • Halyk Savings Bank: pays off State aid fully POSITIVE • Orange Polska: key takeaways from the interview with the CTO NEUTRAL • Polish telecoms: mobile number portability in 1Q24 NEUTRAL • Pub...
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