reports
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
GREEK BANKS | Banking on dividends again
ECB approval and EPS upgrades likely to catalyze a re-rating – The ECB has approved Greek banks' requests to pay the proposed dividends out of 2023 profits, signaling a return to normality after 16 years. The announced payouts correspond to shareholder remuneration of €0.063 for Piraeus (1.7% DY), €0.052 for Alpha Bank, equally split between a cash dividend of €0.026 (1.6% DY) and a buyback (3.2% total yield), €0.0933 for Eurobank (4.6% DY), and €0.36 for NBG (4.6% DY). Following a period of >15...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
GREEK BANKS | Banking on dividends again
ECB approval and EPS upgrades likely to catalyze a re-rating – The ECB has approved Greek banks' requests to pay the proposed dividends out of 2023 profits, signaling a return to normality after 16 years. The announced payouts correspond to shareholder remuneration of €0.063 for Piraeus (1.7% DY), €0.052 for Alpha Bank, equally split between a cash dividend of €0.026 (1.6% DY) and a buyback (3.2% total yield), €0.0933 for Eurobank (4.6% DY), and €0.36 for NBG (4.6% DY). Following a period of >15...
- Kate Heseltine
OPAP - Steady progress towards FY24 guidance
OPAP delivered good revenue growth in Q124 while profitability declined, mainly due to the upfront investment to support a major new product launch, which should boost revenue as the year progresses and provide better leverage on the higher cost base. The broad message is of strong online growth with resilience in its land-based activities, which gives management confidence to reiterate its guidance for the year.
- Research Team
The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: Turkish equities in the lead
EME Equity Market – May 2024 Turkish equities lead, in the mostly green month of May. The MSCI EM Europe Index rose by 0.7% mom in EUR terms and 1.8% mom in LCU terms in May. The Turkish ISE30 index reported the strongest performance, adding 3.6% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Romanian BET and the Czech PX (+2.7% and 2.1% mom in EUR terms, respectively). The Hungarian BUX index and the Polish WIG20 remained broadly flat (+0.4% and +0.2% mom in EUR terms, respectively); although, in LCU terms,...
EUROB EUROBANK ERGASIAS SERVICES & HOLDINGS SA
PEO BANK POLSKA KASA OPIEKI SA
OPAP GREEK ORGANISATION OF FOOTBALL PROGNOSTICS SA
KRU KRUK S.A.
EXAE HELLENIC EXCHANGES SA
CEZ CEZ AS
ACP ASSECO POLAND SA
KRKG KRKA D.D.
HTO HELLENIC TELECOMMUNICATIONS ORGANIZATION SA
CDR CD PROJEKT S.A.
RBI RAIFFEISEN BANK INTERNATIONAL AG
OMV OMV AG
PKO PKO BANK POLSKI S.A.
KOMB KOMERCNI BANKA A.S.
BHW BANK HANDLOWY W WARSZAWIE S.A.
BIMAS BIM BIRLESIK MAGAZALAR A.S.
WIZZ WIZZ AIR HOLDINGS PLC
PZU POWSZECHNY ZAKLAD UBEZPIECZEN SPOLKA AKCYJNA
MIL BANK MILLENNIUM SA
BSK ING BANK SLASKI S.A.
BDX BUDIMEX S.A.
GEKTERNA GEK TERNA
MTELEKOM MAGYAR TELEKOM TELECOMMUNICATIONS
CAI CA IMMOBILIEN ANLAGEN AG
PKN POLSKI KONCERN NAFTOWY ORLEN S.A.
LPP LPP S.A.
ASELS ASELSAN ELEKTRONIK SANAYI VE TICARET A.S. CLASS B
BRISA BRISA-BRIDGESTONE SABANCI LASTIK SANAYI VE TICARET A.S.
CIMSA CIMENTO SANYAI VE TICARET A.S.
LOGO LOGO YAZILIM SANAYI VE TICARET A.S.
CCC CCC SA
CCOLA COCA-COLA ICECEK A.S.
GTC GLOBE TRADE CENTRE S.A.
TENERGY TERNA ENERGY S.A.
BFT BENEFIT SYSTEMS S.A. ALLOTMENT
MGROS MIGROS TICARET A.S
PGE PGE POLSKA GRUPA ENERGETYCZNA S.A.
PGSUS.E PEGASUS HAVA TASIMACILIGI AS
APR AUTO PARTNER SA
TBCB TBC BANK JOINT STOCK CO
TPEIR PIRAEUS BANK SA
ALPHA ALPHA BANK AE
PPC PUBLIC POWER CORPORATION S.A.
OTP OTP BANK NYRT
CAR INTER CARS S.A.
FROTO FORD OTOMOTIV SANAYI A.S.
OTKAR OTOKAR OTOMOTIV VE SAVUNMA SANAYI A.S.
THYAO TURK HAVA YOLLARI A.O.
EUR EUROCASH S.A.
ECH ECHO INVESTMENT
GSPARK GRAPHISOFT PARK SE
CPS CYFROWY POLSAT SA
MBR MO-BRUK S.A.
GPW WARSAW STOCK EXCHANGE
11B 11 BIT STUDIOS S.A.
TPE TAURON POLSKA ENERGIA S.A.
ALR ALIOR BANK SA
OTOEL AUTOHELLAS S.A.
VGO VIGO SYSTEM SA
BANK OF CYPRUS PCL
WPL WIRTUALNA POLSKA HOLDING SA
BRD BRD-GROUPE SOCIETE GENERALE
TLV BANCA TRANSILVANIA S.A.
ETEL TELECOM EGYPT
H4L1 HALYK SAVINGS BANK OF KAZAKHSTAN GDR
SNP PETROM S.A.
PBK PATRIA BANK SA
DIGI DIGI COMMUNICATIONS NV
DNP DINO POLSKA S.A.
NBGGY NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE S.A. ADS
BVB S.C. BURSA DE VALORI BUCURESTI S.A.
GEB BANK OF GEORGIA
RICHT RICHTER
M MED LIFE
SFG SPHERA FRANCHISE GROUP SA
ADNOCDIST ADNOC DISTRIBUTION PJSC
CGEO GEORGIA CAPITAL
SOKM SOK MARKETLER TICARET AS
EAT AMREST HOLDINGS SE
ESLT ELBIT SYSTEMS LTD
KAP NATIONAL ATOMIC COMPANY KAZATOMPROM
TEN TEN SQUARE GAMES
ILRA-R-A ILIRIJA D.D.
ALG ALLEGRO.EU SA
CZG CESKA ZBROJOVKA GROUP
DUNAHOUSE DUNA HOUSE
PCF PCF GROUP SA
HUGE HUUUGE
4IG 4IG NYRT
IGN1L IGNITIS GRUPE
PCO PEPCO GROUP NV
CTPNV KAZMUNAYGAS NC JSC
GPP CTP NV
ADNOCDRILL GRUPA PRACUJ DA
AROBS ADNOC DRILLING CO
2381 AROBS TRANSILVANIA SOFTWARE SA
7202 ARABIAN DRILLING CO.
9526 ARABIAN INTERNET & COMMUNICATIONS SERVICES CO
ELPE JAHEZ INTERNATIONAL CO
4071 HELLENIQ ENERGY
7203 ARABIAN CONTRACTING SERVICES CO
AQ ELM CO
GEV AQUILA PART PROD COM
GEVORKYAN A.S.
Greek Organisation Of Football Prognostics S.A.: 1 director
A director at Greek Organisation Of Football Prognostics S.A. bought 9,950 shares at 15.050EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 65/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's director...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: SOKM TI; ETEL EY; BGEO LN; ASELS TI; TENERGY GA; OPAP GA; ...
HEADLINES: • Sok Marketler Ticaret: very weak results in 1Q24 NEGATIVE • Telecom Egypt: 1Q24 results review – EBITDA up 19% yoy, 3% above the consensus NEUTRAL • Bank of Georgia: 1Q24 highlights – first quarter with Ameria • Aselsan: 1Q24 results – strong backlog, execution on track POSITIVE • Terna Energy: strong set of 1Q24 results, as very much expected NEUTRAL • OPAP: 1Q24 earnings fall, expectedly, on increased opex, but outlook remains bright NEUTRAL • Huuuge Games: earnings call takeaways...
ASELS ASELSAN ELEKTRONIK SANAYI VE TICARET A.S. CLASS B
TENERGY TERNA ENERGY S.A.
MBR MO-BRUK S.A.
VGO VIGO SYSTEM SA
ETEL TELECOM EGYPT
GEB BANK OF GEORGIA
SOKM SOK MARKETLER TICARET AS
HUGE HUUUGE
7202 ARABIAN INTERNET & COMMUNICATIONS SERVICES CO
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
OPAP | First thoughts: No surprises, EBITDA -3%, guidance reiterated
Q1 EBITDA -3% yoy on front-loaded marketing; FY24 guidance reiterated – OPAP Q1 was in sync with our expectations, with revenues (GGR) +4.2% yoy but EBITDA -3.1% at €190.3m (EEe €191m) due to elevated marketing expenses (launch of Eurojackpot, spending in support of recently revamped lottery games etc.). Overall, non-variable opex were up 12% yoy (some €13m swing yoy), thus diluting the positive effect from the c4% increase in gross profit from gaming operations (effectively revenues minus varia...
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
OPAP | First thoughts: No surprises, EBITDA -3%, guidance reiterated
Q1 EBITDA -3% yoy on front-loaded marketing; FY24 guidance reiterated – OPAP Q1 was in sync with our expectations, with revenues (GGR) +4.2% yoy but EBITDA -3.1% at €190.3m (EEe €191m) due to elevated marketing expenses (launch of Eurojackpot, spending in support of recently revamped lottery games etc.). Overall, non-variable opex were up 12% yoy (some €13m swing yoy), thus diluting the positive effect from the c4% increase in gross profit from gaming operations (effectively revenues minus varia...
Mytilineos S.A.: 1 director
A director at Mytilineos S.A. bought 1,000 shares at 37.200EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 54/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearl...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
GREEK BANKS | Solid Q1 leaves upside skew to FY24e; Buy
Q1 Results Beat Estimates – Greek banks kicked off the year with strong Q1 results, with adj. net profit remaining flat qoq at €1.26bn and soaring 45% yoy exceeding both our and consensus estimates by >10%, as a result of resilient NII and lower-than-expected underlying CoR (at 64bps vs EEe of 77bps). In more detail, sector-wide NII surged 15.5% yoy in Q1 (NIM +42bps), slipping just 2.6% qoq (NIM down by 8bps) after a record-breaking Q4’23, in line with our estimates, with Eurobank showing the m...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
GREEK BANKS | Solid Q1 leaves upside skew to FY24e; Buy
Q1 Results Beat Estimates – Greek banks kicked off the year with strong Q1 results, with adj. net profit remaining flat qoq at €1.26bn and soaring 45% yoy exceeding both our and consensus estimates by >10%, as a result of resilient NII and lower-than-expected underlying CoR (at 64bps vs EEe of 77bps). In more detail, sector-wide NII surged 15.5% yoy in Q1 (NIM +42bps), slipping just 2.6% qoq (NIM down by 8bps) after a record-breaking Q4’23, in line with our estimates, with Eurobank showing the m...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
GREEK BANKS | Valuation remains out of sync with sustainable RoTEs
March underperformance sparked repositioning opportunity; risk-reward compelling – Greek bank shares had a strong start to 2024 (until Feb) closing the valuation gap vs EU periphery peers buoyed by the stellar 2023 profits (adj. RoTE of c16%), successful B/S de-risking (NPE ratio c4%) and improved market liquidity post HFSF’s placements. However, in March they suffered a bout of underperformance (>15%), with the relative 2024e P/TBV discount widening to c20% (and the P/E discount even higher) on...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
GREEK BANKS | Valuation remains out of sync with sustainable RoTEs
March underperformance sparked repositioning opportunity; risk-reward compelling – Greek bank shares had a strong start to 2024 (until Feb) closing the valuation gap vs EU periphery peers buoyed by the stellar 2023 profits (adj. RoTE of c16%), successful B/S de-risking (NPE ratio c4%) and improved market liquidity post HFSF’s placements. However, in March they suffered a bout of underperformance (>15%), with the relative 2024e P/TBV discount widening to c20% (and the P/E discount even higher) on...
- Toby Thorrington
Mytilineos - Strong Q1 and plans for potential London listing
On April 25, Mytilineos (MYTIL) announced, as part of its strategic review, that it is considering a potential international listing on the London Stock Exchange (LSE) within the next 12–18 months. Listing on the LSE would demonstrate a strong vote of confidence by MYTIL in the UK market and aligns with its international growth ambitions, allowing the company to leverage its geographically diverse portfolio of operations. It would provide greater liquidity for investors and enable MYTIL to conti...
Motor Oil (Hellas) Corinth Refineries S.A. : 1 director
A director at Motor Oil (Hellas) Corinth Refineries S.A. bought 2,000 shares at 26.090EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 55/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors ov...
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
MYTILINEOS Energy & Metals | More than just a deal, more than 10% grow...
Stellar delivery, bulletproof growth, and more catalysts ahead… – Over the past two years Mytilineos has reported impressive results, leveraging synergies arising from the vertically integrated model. Following outstanding delivery to the ambitious FY’23 EBITDA target of €1bn (+23% yoy), we still see ample room for growth, now estimating FY’24 EBITDA of €1.14bn (+13% yoy) and a 3-year EBITDA CAGR of 10%, driven by a step-up in Renewables and solid growth Metals. Moreover, we view the value-accre...
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
MYTILINEOS Energy & Metals | More than just a deal, more than 10% grow...
Stellar delivery, bulletproof growth, and more catalysts ahead… – Over the past two years Mytilineos has reported impressive results, leveraging synergies arising from the vertically integrated model. Following outstanding delivery to the ambitious FY’23 EBITDA target of €1bn (+23% yoy), we still see ample room for growth, now estimating FY’24 EBITDA of €1.14bn (+13% yoy) and a 3-year EBITDA CAGR of 10%, driven by a step-up in Renewables and solid growth Metals. Moreover, we view the value-accre...
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
OPAP | More measured growth, but still betting on a safe ace
Firstly, how to value OPAP – Being a business operating limited-life concessions, OPAP is far more complicated to value than most investors realize. In fact, one can argue that as concession expiration approaches, the shares ought to incorporate a lower valuation reflecting the reduced time life of the respective concessions. On the other hand, we also note that some of the provisions embedded in certain concessions act as effective barriers to entry, attributing to these licences going-concern ...
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
OPAP | More measured growth, but still betting on a safe ace
Firstly, how to value OPAP – Being a business operating limited-life concessions, OPAP is far more complicated to value than most investors realize. In fact, one can argue that as concession expiration approaches, the shares ought to incorporate a lower valuation reflecting the reduced time life of the respective concessions. On the other hand, we also note that some of the provisions embedded in certain concessions act as effective barriers to entry, attributing to these licences going-concern ...
- Research Team
The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: mixed market performances in March
EME Equity Market – March 2024 Market performance – mixed performances in March, with the Romanian BET outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 0.3% mom in EUR terms and 0.4% mom in USD in March. The Romanian BET reported the strongest performance, adding 7.1% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Czech PX and the Polish WIG20 (+4.1% and 1.0% mom, in EUR terms, respectively). Greece saw a relatively muted performance (-0.2% mom in EUR terms), while Hungary (-1.1% mom in EUR terms) and Tür...
EUROB EUROBANK ERGASIAS SERVICES & HOLDINGS SA
PEO BANK POLSKA KASA OPIEKI SA
JMT JERONIMO MARTINS SGPS S.A.
OPAP GREEK ORGANISATION OF FOOTBALL PROGNOSTICS SA
KRU KRUK S.A.
EXAE HELLENIC EXCHANGES SA
MOL MOL NYRT
CEZ CEZ AS
ACP ASSECO POLAND SA
HTO HELLENIC TELECOMMUNICATIONS ORGANIZATION SA
CDR CD PROJEKT S.A.
OMV OMV AG
PKO PKO BANK POLSKI S.A.
ALK ALKALOID AD SKOPJE
BHW BANK HANDLOWY W WARSZAWIE S.A.
PZU POWSZECHNY ZAKLAD UBEZPIECZEN SPOLKA AKCYJNA
VER VERBUND AG CLASS A
SPL SANTANDER BANK POLSKA SA
MIL BANK MILLENNIUM SA
BSK ING BANK SLASKI S.A.
BDX BUDIMEX S.A.
TPS ORANGE POLSKA S.A.
CAI CA IMMOBILIEN ANLAGEN AG
SAR GR. SARANTIS S.A.
LPP LPP S.A.
AKCNS AKCANSA CIMENTO
ASELS ASELSAN ELEKTRONIK SANAYI VE TICARET A.S. CLASS B
BRISA BRISA-BRIDGESTONE SABANCI LASTIK SANAYI VE TICARET A.S.
CIMSA CIMENTO SANYAI VE TICARET A.S.
LOGO LOGO YAZILIM SANAYI VE TICARET A.S.
CCC CCC SA
CCOLA COCA-COLA ICECEK A.S.
2310 SAHARA INTERNATIONAL PETROCHEMICAL COMPANY
DOM DOM DEVELOPMENT SA
AEGN AEGEAN AIRLINES SA
ENA ENEA S.A.
BFT BENEFIT SYSTEMS S.A. ALLOTMENT
MGROS MIGROS TICARET A.S
PGE PGE POLSKA GRUPA ENERGETYCZNA S.A.
TKNSA TEKNOSA IC VE DIS TICARET AS
PGSUS.E PEGASUS HAVA TASIMACILIGI AS
LVC LIVECHAT SOFTWARE SA
TBCB TBC BANK JOINT STOCK CO
OTP OTP BANK NYRT
CAR INTER CARS S.A.
ARCLK ARCELIK A.S.
FROTO FORD OTOMOTIV SANAYI A.S.
OTKAR OTOKAR OTOMOTIV VE SAVUNMA SANAYI A.S.
TUPRS TURKIYE PETROL RAFINERILERI A.S.
ECH ECHO INVESTMENT
11B 11 BIT STUDIOS S.A.
TPE TAURON POLSKA ENERGIA S.A.
ALR ALIOR BANK SA
WPL WIRTUALNA POLSKA HOLDING SA
BRD BRD-GROUPE SOCIETE GENERALE
TLV BANCA TRANSILVANIA S.A.
ETEL TELECOM EGYPT
SNG SOCIETATEA NATIONALA DE GAZE NATURALE ROMGAZ SA
H4L1 HALYK SAVINGS BANK OF KAZAKHSTAN GDR
SNP PETROM S.A.
TOFAS TOFAS TURK OTOMOBIL FABRIKASI A.S.
DIGI DIGI COMMUNICATIONS NV
DNP DINO POLSKA S.A.
NBGGY NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE S.A. ADS
SNN SOCIETATEA NATIONALA NUCLEARELECTRICA SA
TEL C.N.T.E.E. TRANSELECTRICA
ELSA SOCIETATEA ENERGETICA ELECTRICA
FP. FONDUL PROPRIETATEA S.A. GDR (REG S)
GEB BANK OF GEORGIA
TGN SOCIETATEA NATIONALA DE TRANSPORT GAZE NATURALE TRANSGAZ S.A.
RICHT RICHTER
ALPHA ALPHA BANK
SFG SPHERA FRANCHISE GROUP SA
ADNOCDIST ADNOC DISTRIBUTION PJSC
KAP NATIONAL ATOMIC COMPANY KAZATOMPROM
TEN TEN SQUARE GAMES
ALG ALLEGRO.EU SA
CZG CESKA ZBROJOVKA GROUP
INPST INPOST S.A.
PCF PCF GROUP SA
HUGE HUUUGE
WINE PURCARI WINERIES PCL
CTPNV KAZMUNAYGAS NC JSC
ONE CTP NV
GPP ONE UNITED PROPERTIES SA
AROBS GRUPA PRACUJ DA
2381 AROBS TRANSILVANIA SOFTWARE SA
9526 ARABIAN DRILLING CO.
4071 JAHEZ INTERNATIONAL CO
H2O ARABIAN CONTRACTING SERVICES CO
7203 HIDROELECTRICA S.A.
AQ ELM CO
AIRA AQUILA PART PROD COM
AIR ASTANA JSC
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