EME Equity Market – June 2024 Another positive month for most of the EME indices, with the Hungarian BUX Index outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index rose by 1.0% in EUR terms, but declined -0.2% in USD terms in June. The Hungarian BUX index reported the strongest performance, adding 4.8% in EUR terms, followed by the Romanian BET and the Polish WIG20 (+3.7% and 2.1%, in EUR terms, respectively), and the Turkish ISE30 (+0.9% in EUR terms). Greece and the Czech Republic were in negative territor...
HEADLINES: • Text: 4Q23-24 (calendar 1Q24) results – EBITDA down 12% yoy, 11% below our forecast NEGATIVE • Türkiye macro: giving credit where credit is due, but keep realistic lags in mind • PKO BP: partial resolutions of AGM, dividend approved, AGM paused • Poland macro: CPI well-behaved, wage growth still soaring • Santander Bank Polska: 2Q24 CHF mortgage saga charges of PLN 1,109m NEUTRAL • Wizz Air: calls to improve Air Traffic Control in Europe in wake of delays NEGATIVE • Public Power Cor...
HEADLINES: • cyber_Folks (CBF PW): top exposure to e-commerce and AI in Poland (BUY - initiation of coverage, PT PLN 177.2) • Vercom (VRC PW): global expansion through M&A ahead (HOLD - initiation of coverage, PT PLN 139.8) • Public Power Corporation: announces merger of Romanian businesses NEUTRAL • OPAP: extends Cyprus concession for another 15 years POSITIVE
We initiate coverage of cyber_Folks (CBF) with a BUY rating and a price target (PT) of PLN 177.2/share, implying 41% upside. The cyber_Folks Group offers, inter alia, web hosting, domain sales and a Communication as a Service (CPaaS) platform, used to send personalised messages on a large scale and automate communications. We see it as offering unique exposure to the CEE e-commerce market, the global CPaaS market and AI adoption, as it develops its own AI-powered tools. It offers an attractive c...
We initiate coverage of Vercom with a HOLD rating and a price target (PT) of PLN 139.8/share. Vercom is a Polish software company that offers a Communications Platform as a Service (CPaaS) solution, that can be used, inter alia, to send personalised messages on a large scale, automate communications, and integrate different communications channels. Vercom is focused on growth through both organic expansion and M&A, and delivered an impressive 48% 2020-23 adj. EBITDA CAGR. For 2023-26E, we foreca...
HEADLINES: • Georgia macro: Borrell's statements on Georgia • CEZ: AGM approves dividend of CZK 52/share NEUTRAL • OPAP: Greek gaming market picks up speed in April POSITIVE • HELLENiQ Energy: eyeing 50% stake in Elpedison; State to the rescue with regards to 35% stake in Depa Commercial? POSITIVE • Short News (MTELEKOM)
OPAP delivered good revenue growth in Q124 while profitability declined, mainly due to the upfront investment to support a major new product launch, which should boost revenue as the year progresses and provide better leverage on the higher cost base. The broad message is of strong online growth with resilience in its land-based activities, which gives management confidence to reiterate its guidance for the year.
EME Equity Market – May 2024 Turkish equities lead, in the mostly green month of May. The MSCI EM Europe Index rose by 0.7% mom in EUR terms and 1.8% mom in LCU terms in May. The Turkish ISE30 index reported the strongest performance, adding 3.6% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Romanian BET and the Czech PX (+2.7% and 2.1% mom in EUR terms, respectively). The Hungarian BUX index and the Polish WIG20 remained broadly flat (+0.4% and +0.2% mom in EUR terms, respectively); although, in LCU terms,...
A director at Greek Organisation Of Football Prognostics S.A. bought 9,950 shares at 15.050EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 65/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's director...
HEADLINES: • Sok Marketler Ticaret: very weak results in 1Q24 NEGATIVE • Telecom Egypt: 1Q24 results review – EBITDA up 19% yoy, 3% above the consensus NEUTRAL • Bank of Georgia: 1Q24 highlights – first quarter with Ameria • Aselsan: 1Q24 results – strong backlog, execution on track POSITIVE • Terna Energy: strong set of 1Q24 results, as very much expected NEUTRAL • OPAP: 1Q24 earnings fall, expectedly, on increased opex, but outlook remains bright NEUTRAL • Huuuge Games: earnings call takeaways...
Q1 EBITDA -3% yoy on front-loaded marketing; FY24 guidance reiterated – OPAP Q1 was in sync with our expectations, with revenues (GGR) +4.2% yoy but EBITDA -3.1% at €190.3m (EEe €191m) due to elevated marketing expenses (launch of Eurojackpot, spending in support of recently revamped lottery games etc.). Overall, non-variable opex were up 12% yoy (some €13m swing yoy), thus diluting the positive effect from the c4% increase in gross profit from gaming operations (effectively revenues minus varia...
Q1 EBITDA -3% yoy on front-loaded marketing; FY24 guidance reiterated – OPAP Q1 was in sync with our expectations, with revenues (GGR) +4.2% yoy but EBITDA -3.1% at €190.3m (EEe €191m) due to elevated marketing expenses (launch of Eurojackpot, spending in support of recently revamped lottery games etc.). Overall, non-variable opex were up 12% yoy (some €13m swing yoy), thus diluting the positive effect from the c4% increase in gross profit from gaming operations (effectively revenues minus varia...
HEADLINES: • PZU: posts solid 1Q24, confirming growth trends in the non-life segment; strategy from new management update due in 4Q24E NEUTRAL • Wirtualna Polska: 1Q24 results review – adjusted EBITDA up 11% yoy, 3% above the consensus POSITIVE • Public Power Corporation: 1Q24 EBITDA jumps, but bottom line disappoints NEGATIVE • Halyk Bank: 1Q24 highlights and notes from the conference call NEUTRAL • CEZ: proposes CZK 52 DPS from the 2023 earnings NEUTRAL • KazMunayGas: Board recommends KZT 491....
EME Equity Market – April 2024 Market performance – green across all geographies, with Turkey outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index was up 5.3% mom in EUR terms and 4.2% mom in USD in April; while the Turkish ISE30 saw the strongest performance, adding 11.6% mom; followed by the Hungarian BUX (+5.0% mom); the Czech PX (+2.8% mom); the Greek ASE (+1.8% mom), the Polish WIG20 (+1.2% mom) and the Romanian BET (+0.1% mom) (all in EUR terms).
HEADLINES: • Greek banks: life after the windfall (Alpha, Eurobank, NBG and Piraeus – transfer of coverage) • Cyfrowy Polsat: key takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings call NEUTRAL • Orlen: announces PLN 1.6bn of probable trading losses NEGATIVE • ING BSK: AGM approves PLN 33.35 DPS NEUTRAL • Public Power Corporation: partners with Mytilineos for 2GW solar portfolio NEUTRAL • InPost: PPF realises option to buy 10% stake • ONE United Properties: founders and others selling up to 9.5% in ABB • PKO BP: ...
HEADLINES: • Middle Eastern Oil Services: we’re going with what’s growing (ADNOC Drilling upgraded to BUY, Arabian Drilling downgraded to HOLD) • Public Power Corporation: 4Q23 earnings review NEUTRAL • Kruk: 1Q24 trading update shows strong recoveries POSITIVE • Budimex: 4Q23 figures in line with the preliminary guidance NEUTRAL • Budimex: management recommends PLN 35.69 DPS (5% dividend yield), above our expectations POSITIVE • Polish utilities: Industry Ministry plans to link mines to coal-fi...
HEADLINES: • OMV Petrom: 1Q24 trading statement POSITIVE • OMV: 1Q24 trading statement NEUTRAL • Bank Millennium: 1Q24E CHF mortgage saga provisions land at PLN 507m NEUTRAL • Polish gencos: IndMin floats notion of alternative solution to the NABE NEUTRAL • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (1-7 April) • Halyk Savings Bank: pays off State aid fully POSITIVE • Orange Polska: key takeaways from the interview with the CTO NEUTRAL • Polish telecoms: mobile number portability in 1Q24 NEUTRAL • Pub...
Firstly, how to value OPAP – Being a business operating limited-life concessions, OPAP is far more complicated to value than most investors realize. In fact, one can argue that as concession expiration approaches, the shares ought to incorporate a lower valuation reflecting the reduced time life of the respective concessions. On the other hand, we also note that some of the provisions embedded in certain concessions act as effective barriers to entry, attributing to these licences going-concern ...
Firstly, how to value OPAP – Being a business operating limited-life concessions, OPAP is far more complicated to value than most investors realize. In fact, one can argue that as concession expiration approaches, the shares ought to incorporate a lower valuation reflecting the reduced time life of the respective concessions. On the other hand, we also note that some of the provisions embedded in certain concessions act as effective barriers to entry, attributing to these licences going-concern ...
EME Equity Market – March 2024 Market performance – mixed performances in March, with the Romanian BET outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 0.3% mom in EUR terms and 0.4% mom in USD in March. The Romanian BET reported the strongest performance, adding 7.1% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Czech PX and the Polish WIG20 (+4.1% and 1.0% mom, in EUR terms, respectively). Greece saw a relatively muted performance (-0.2% mom in EUR terms), while Hungary (-1.1% mom in EUR terms) and Tür...
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