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Simen Mortensen
  • Simen Mortensen

A merger, a bond exchange offer and other news

KMC (No rec) and Logistea (No rec) plan to combine, with Logisea acquiring all of KMC Properties’ group operations. SBB Norden announced a bond exchange offer. Dios named David Carlsson new CEO. Corem divested SEK107m of properties. Citycon announced the result of a bond hybrid exchange offer. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.43% for 2024e and 4.83% for 2025e.

Niklas Wetterling
  • Niklas Wetterling

Nyfosa (Hold, TP: SEK105.00) - Nearing a return to growth

We reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our target price to SEK105 (100) ahead of the Q2 results (due on 10 July). While the equity raise lowered the LTV adj (total assets) to c50%, leaving room for accretive M&A, near-term Nyfosa is likely to prioritise repurchasing its hybrid bond. We believe the stock screens attractively in a rapidly falling interest-rate scenario, owing to its short average interest rate period (1.6 years), but we find it fairly valued at a 2024–2025e P/FFO of 15–14x.

Stendörren Fastigheter AB: 1 director

A director at Stendörren Fastigheter AB bought 50,000 shares at 183.200SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 67/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two ...

Simen Mortensen
  • Simen Mortensen

Initiating with a BUY, office-space reduction, and personnel changes

This week, we initiated coverage with a BUY on Public Property Invest, a key tenant for Fabege reduced its office space, Hufvudstaden made management changes, we updated our estimates for Besqab following the merger with Aros Bostad, and transaction volumes in May rose from low levels. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.38% for 2024e and 4.78% for 2025e.

ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research
  • Fredrik Stensved
  • Markus Henriksson
  • Viktor Stenlöf

Key takeaways from the Nordic Property Tour 2024

Strong demand in logistics rental market during H1 2024. Residential companies more likely to grow through acquisitions than development. Bond financing margins are converging on bank margins across the sector.

Simen Mortensen
  • Simen Mortensen

A bit of everything

This week, Wihlborgs bought new assets, Citycon sought the conversion of its 2025 hybrid bond, SBB announced a new JV, dismantled an old one, and set a record date for the remaining 2023 dividends, Balder issued four bonds, while Prisma Properties is aiming for an IPO. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.42% for 2024e and 4.82% for 2025e.

Simen Mortensen
  • Simen Mortensen

Bond margin improvement and other news

This week, Sagax issued a 6-year EUR500m fixed bond – the first ‘large and longer-duration’ EUR bond issue by a listed Swedish real estate company in around two years. Also, Fitch warned about the liquidity situation in SBB Norden, Emilshus raised equity, and K2A initiated a written procedure to extend its bonds. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.38% for 2024e and 4.78% for 2025e.

ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research
  • Fredrik Stensved
  • Markus Henriksson
  • Viktor Stenlöf

Window shopping in Poland

We visited Poland with Eastnine last week. ~EUR 200m to spend on acquisitions, which could lower ’24e P/CEPS to 11x (45% discount to the sector).

ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research
  • Fredrik Stensved
  • Markus Henriksson
  • Viktor Stenlöf

Sector-high earnings growth

CEPS miss on one-off tax item. Halving hybrid leads to higher CEPS. '24e-'26e CEPS CAGR of ~14% vs sector at ~9%.

ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research
  • Bengt Jonassen

Still attractive

Strong start to 2024. Balance sheet supports expansion. BUY reiterated, TP lifted to NOK 260 (250)

Simen Mortensen
  • Simen Mortensen

Equity raise, two more Q1 reports

This week, Nyfosa raised SEK1.7bn in equity, and Citycon and Olav Thon reported their Q1 results. Real estate stocks have performed well globally since the latest US CPI print. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.32% for 2024e and 4.71% for 2025e.

Simen Mortensen
  • Simen Mortensen

Olav Thon (Buy, TP: NOK265.00) - Strong and stable

There were no surprises in the Q1 results. Olav Thon remains one of the most attractively valued stocks in our Nordic real estate coverage, as well as having among the strongest balance sheets. We have made limited estimate changes following the report, and reiterate our BUY, while we have raised our target price to NOK265 (250).

ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research
  • Bengt Jonassen
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