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ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research
  • Fredrik Stensved
  • Markus Henriksson
  • Viktor Stenlöf

Sector-high earnings growth

CEPS miss on one-off tax item. Halving hybrid leads to higher CEPS. '24e-'26e CEPS CAGR of ~14% vs sector at ~9%.

ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research
  • Bengt Jonassen

Still attractive

Strong start to 2024. Balance sheet supports expansion. BUY reiterated, TP lifted to NOK 260 (250)

Simen Mortensen
  • Simen Mortensen

Equity raise, two more Q1 reports

This week, Nyfosa raised SEK1.7bn in equity, and Citycon and Olav Thon reported their Q1 results. Real estate stocks have performed well globally since the latest US CPI print. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.32% for 2024e and 4.71% for 2025e.

Simen Mortensen
  • Simen Mortensen

Olav Thon (Buy, TP: NOK265.00) - Strong and stable

There were no surprises in the Q1 results. Olav Thon remains one of the most attractively valued stocks in our Nordic real estate coverage, as well as having among the strongest balance sheets. We have made limited estimate changes following the report, and reiterate our BUY, while we have raised our target price to NOK265 (250).

ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research
  • Bengt Jonassen
ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research
  • Fredrik Stensved
  • Markus Henriksson
  • Viktor Stenlöf

Weak quarter, sound outlook

Messy quarter, negative est. changes. Asset rotation set to continue. Several reasons to buy the share; BUY, TP SEK 155

Simen Mortensen
  • Simen Mortensen

Swedish policy rate cut, an upgrade and a downgrade

Sweden’s Riksbank cut the policy rate this week to 3.75% (4.0%); our estimates are based on another four cuts by end-2025. During the week we upgraded Veidekke to BUY, downgraded Castellum to HOLD, and reiterated our HOLD on Kojamo and SELL on Hufvudstaden and Sagax. The average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.40% for 2024e and 4.79% for 2025e.

Stendörren Fastigheter AB: 1 director

A director at Stendörren Fastigheter AB bought 2,497 shares at 180.000SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 69/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two y...

Castellum AB: 2 directors

A director at Castellum AB bought 3,633 shares at 126.950SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 42/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly ...

ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research
  • Fredrik Stensved
  • Markus Henriksson
  • Viktor Stenlöf
Niklas Wetterling
  • Niklas Wetterling

Castellum (Hold, TP: SEK135.00) - Unconvincing Q1 results

We have downgraded to HOLD (BUY) and trimmed our target price to SEK135 (136) following rather soft Q1 results that showed a risk in vacancy adding concern about the rental market outlook. We consider the stock fully valued, given only an 10% NAV discount (adjusted for Entra at market value) and its soft FFOPS growth outlook.

ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research
  • Fredrik Stensved
  • Markus Henriksson
  • Viktor Stenlöf

On track

European occupancy continues up. Minor estimate changes for '25e-'26e. Trading above key peers, we reiterate HOLD.

Simen Mortensen
  • Simen Mortensen

Q1 reporting continues

This week, Castellum and Balder reported Q1 results, Wihlborgs announced a new lease, and SBB corrected 2023 profits and dissolved Unobo. Norges Bank has signalled interest rates might stay higher for longer. K2A has halted preference dividend payments. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.69% for 2024e and 4.97% for 2025e.

ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research
  • Fredrik Stensved
  • Markus Henriksson
  • Viktor Stenlöf
Jan Frederik Slijkerman ... (+5)
  • Jan Frederik Slijkerman
  • Jeroen van den Broek
  • Jesse Norcross
  • Nadège Tillier
  • Timothy Rahill

Coffee, Croissants & Credit/Balder and Klepierre

Real Estate: Balder 1Q24: small earnings miss, focus on the ICR for credit investors

ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research
  • Fredrik Stensved
  • Markus Henriksson
  • Viktor Stenlöf
ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research
  • Fredrik Stensved
  • Markus Henriksson
  • Viktor Stenlöf
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