reports
- Iyad KhalidÊGhulam
Kayan: Q4 22 Result Analysis | Challenges continue
Kayan reported a weak set of Q4 22 results with a net loss of SAR791mn vs a net loss of SAR812mn in Q3 22 and a profit of SAR449mn in Q4 21. The losses are higher than the SNB Capital and consensus estimates of losses of SAR302mn and SAR649mn, respectively. We believe the variance was due to 1) lower than expected prices and volumes, 2) higher than expected cost of production and 3) higher SG&A. We highlight that gross loss margin came in at 25.4% in Q4 22 vs18.8% in Q3 22. * Revenues stood ...
- Iyad KhalidÊGhulam
Saudi Petrochemicals Sector | Q4 Update | A difficult year ahead
Following a challenging H2 22, major headwinds are expected in the near-term for the Saudi petrochemicals sector. The expected global recession, high inflation levels and the commissioning of new capacities will test the sector’s dynamics, exerting pressure on product margins. However, we believe the full removal of COVID-19 restrictions in China by H2 23f is a key positive and will drive demand over the medium term. Valuations are generally attractive over the LT, but given the major headwin...
- Iyad KhalidÊGhulam
Kayan: Q3 22 Results Analysis | Highest quarterly losses since incepti...
Kayan reported a disappointing set of Q3 22 results, with a net loss of SAR812mn vs profits of SAR667mn and SAR150mn in Q3 21 and Q2 22, respectively. The results were significantly lower than the SNB Capital and consensus estimates of profits of SAR41mn each. Although revenues came in-line with our estimates, we believe the losses were due to a combination of higher-than-expected cost of production, SG&A and other expenses. The company reported a gross loss margin of 18.8% in Q3 22, which we...
- Iyad KhalidÊGhulam
Kayan: Strong sales drives earnings
Kayan reported a net profit of SAR150mn in Q2 22, down 80.8% yoy (-28.3% qoq). However, this is significantly higher than the SNB Capital and consensus estimates of SAR4mn and SAR56mn, respectively. Revenues grew by 14.6% yoy, but the decline in earnings was driven by 1) higher feedstock costs resulting in lower gross profits, 2) higher opex and 3) higher financing costs. The variance was mainly due to higher than expected revenue, which we believe is due to a combination of better volumes an...
- Iyad KhalidÊGhulam
Saudi Petrochemicals Sector | Q2 22 Sector Update | Challenges and opp...
The Saudi petrochemicals sector is going through an interesting period, as it is simultaneously facing major headwinds and attractive opportunities. Slowing global economic growth, supply-chain disruptions, new capacities and high feedstock prices are the sector’s main challenges. On the other hand, the ease of China’s lockdown has improved sentiments and will support outlook. We prefer companies with 1) favourable product mix, 2) feedstock advantage 3) low debt levels and 4) attractive divid...
- Iyad KhalidÊGhulam
Kayan: Weak earnings due to low sales and lower margin
Kayan reported a Q1 22 net profit of SAR209mn, down 57.5%yoy ( -53.7% qoq). This is significantly lower than the SNB Capital and consensus estimates of SAR513mn and SAR452mn, respectively. The decline and variance are attributed to 1) lower revenues due to decrease in average selling prices 2) higher costs of production due to increase in feedstock prices resulting in lower gross profits. * Revenues stood at SAR3.14bn, up 16.9% yoy (-12.0% qoq) and lower than our estimates of SAR3.55bn. The ...
SAUDI KAYAN PETROCH. sees a downgrade to Slightly Negative on account ...
The independent financial analyst theScreener just lowered the general evaluation of SAUDI KAYAN PETROCH. (SA), active in the Commodity Chemicals industry. As regards its fundamental valuation, the title now shows 0 out of 4 stars while market behaviour can be considered moderately risky. theScreener believes that the title remains under pressure due to the loss of a star(s) and downgrades its general evaluation to Slightly Negative. As of the analysis date December 24, 2021, the closing price w...
- Iyad KhalidÊGhulam
Kayan: Strong sales partially offset by high feedstock cost
Kayan reported a net income of SAR667mn in Q3 21 vs a profit of SAR781 in Q2 21 (-14.5% qoq) and a loss of SAR28mn in Q3 20. However, this is better than SNB Capital and consensus estimates of SAR617mn and SAR638mn, respectively. We believe the variance is mainly due to strong revenue growth driven by higher average realized prices and operating rates. This was partially offset by higher feedstock costs and operating expenses. With profits in Q3 21, Kayan’s retained earnings reached SAR458mn,...
- Iyad KhalidÊGhulam
Kayan: Q2 21 review – Strong results, in-line with expectations
Kayan reported their highest quarterly earnings since Q2 18, with a net profit of SAR781mn vs a profit of SAR493mn in Q1 21 and a loss of SAR398mn in Q2 20. The results were in-line with our estimates of SAR779mn but significantly higher than the consensus estimates of SAR699mn. We believe the weaker than expected revenues were offset by lower COGS and SG&A. * Revenues stood at SAR2.97bn, up 93.5% yoy (+10.8% qoq), its highest levels since Q3 18. However, it is 7.3% lower than our estimates....
- Iyad KhalidÊGhulam
Kayan: Highest earnings since Q3 18
Saudi Kayan reported a strong Q4 20 results, with a net profit of SAR158mn vs a loss of SAR28mn in Q3 20 and a loss of SAR167mn in Q4 19. This is significantly higher than the NCBC and consensus estimates of SAR66mn and SAR27mn, respectively. We believe the variance is due to higher operating rates and selling prices. Based on our last update published in June 2020, we are Neutral on Kayan with a PT of SAR9.1. Since then, the stock recorded a strong rally of 74%. We await the full financials ...
- Iyad KhalidÊGhulam
Kayan: Lower losses on higher operating rates
Kayan reported a better than expected set of Q3 20 results. Although the company reported a net loss of SAR28mn, the loss is lower than the NCBC and consensus estimates of losses of SAR178mn and SAR172mn, respectively. This compares to a loss of SAR398mn in Q2 20 and a profit of SAR1.3mn in Q3 19. We believe the better than expected results are mainly due to better than expected topline and lower financing costs. Based on our last update published in June 2020, we are Neutral on Kayan with a...
- Iyad KhalidÊGhulam
Saudi Petrochemical Sector: Q2 20 update – Covid-19 is not the only ...
The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in major supply and demand shocks to the petrochemicals sector, pushing prices to their lowest levels in more than 10 years. It also resulted in major uncertainty on the sector’s 2020f earnings outlook. Beyond the negative impact of COVID-19, we believe the sector outlook remains muted, due to increasing supply, trade tensions and weak demand. We believe the sector is currently pricing-in a full recovery for the global economy, leaving limited attractive inv....
Ford Equity International Rating and Forecast Report
Ford Equity International Research Reports cover 60 countries with over 30,000 stocks traded on international exchanges. A proprietary quantitative system compares each company to its peers on proven measures of business value, growth characteristics, and investor behavior. Ford's three recommendation ratings buy, hold and sell, represent each stock’s return potential relative to its own country market.. The rating reports which are generated each week, include the fundamental details behind...
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