reports
- Stephane Foucaud
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 02/08/2024
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target of A$0.75 per share: Reflections on Welchau – IIndependent consultants have calculated that each of the three reservoirs encountered at Welchau (Reifling - 128 metres, Steinalm -118 metres and the Guttenstein - 111 metres) are hydrocarbon bearing with uncertainty on the hydrocarbon type. Laboratory work on the Steinalm reservoir has confirmed the full properties ofthe 43° API light sweet oil that was recove...
RDSA ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC CLASS A
GTE GRAN TIERRA ENERGY
OMV OMV AG
TXP TOUCHSTONE EXPLORATION
PXT PAREX RESOURCES INC.
SEI. SINTANA ENERGY
PEN PANORO ENERGY ASA
VLE VALEURA ENERGY INC.
SQZ SERICA ENERGY
XOM EXXON MOBIL CORPORATION
BP. BP P.L.C.
JSE JADESTONE ENERGY
AXL. ARROW EXPLORATION LTD
TRIN TRINITY CAPITAL INC
ADX ADX ENERGY LTD
BWEFF BW ENERGY LTD
TCF TRILLION ENERGY INTERNATIONAL INC
- Colin Smith
Seplat Energy: 6M24 results – Solid half, better to come
Seplat delivered a solid performance in the first half of the year with production at 48.4kboed at the mid-point of guidance, unchanged at 44-52kboed. That translated into EPS of US$0.07, flat YoY and the quarterly dividend was maintained at the current run rate of US$0.03. Adjusted EBITDA increased 13.3% YoY to US$267.3m while net cash generation bounced back from the weak performance in 1Q24. ANOH remains on track for first gas in 3Q24. Detail on progress of the transformational MPNU acquisiti...
Q12024 Seplat Unaudited Financial Result | Elevated Tax Expense Drive...
Elevated Tax Expense Drives Net LossIn Q1:2024, Seplat Energy’s revenue grew by a remarkable 76.73% year-on-year (YoY) to reach NGN268.62bn. This exceptional performance was fueled by substantial growth in both crude oil (up 64.72% YoY) and gas (up 184.84 % YoY) revenue streams. Average production slowed down by 4.8% YoY to 49,258 barrels of oil and equivalent per day (boepd) compared to 51,720 boepd. However, higher oil (USD86.17pb in Q1:2024 vs USD82.32pb in Q1:2023) and gas (USD3.11/Mscf in Q...
- Stephane Foucaud
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 03/05/2024
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of A$0.75 per share: Raising new equity to fund a high impact activity programme – ADX has raised A$13.5 mm of new equity priced at A$0.105 per share. One free-attaching option will be issued for evert two placement shares with an exercise price of A$0.15 per share and an expiry date of 08/05/2026. The proceeds from the raise will fund (1) the production testing of the 450 m gas column encountered at ...
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
GTE GRAN TIERRA ENERGY
EGY VAALCO ENERGY INC.
OMV OMV AG
TXP TOUCHSTONE EXPLORATION
SEI. SINTANA ENERGY
CHAR CHARIOT OIL & GAS
PEN PANORO ENERGY ASA
DELT DELTIC ENERGY
CNE CANACOL ENERGY LTD
ZPHR ZEPHYR ENERGY
JSE JADESTONE ENERGY
AXL. ARROW EXPLORATION LTD
I3E I3 ENERGY
TRIN TRINITY CAPITAL INC
CEQ CRITERIUM ENERGY LTD.
ADX ADX ENERGY LTD
BWEFF BW ENERGY LTD
LNGE LNG ENERGY GROUP CORP.
SHELL ROYAL DUTCH SHELL
- Colin Smith
Seplat Energy: 1Q24 results - operations strong, financials skewed
Seplat delivered an encouraging operating performance in 1Q24 including production of 49.3kboed, towards the upper end of guidance (44-52kboed). All current guidance was maintained but good progress on the ANOH export infrastructure and an earlier than expected resumption of exports through Zone 6 of the Trans Niger Pipeline improve confidence that guidance will be at least met. Financial performance for the quarter was skewed by a substantial underlift, FX effects, and a high deferred tax charg...
- Egor Fedorov
- James Wilson
EM Credit Spark/EM credit weekly
EM credit markets continue to hold up well amid the challenging macro backdrop, with some more optimism building around the higher-yielding portion of the market. With valuations fairly tight on the whole, we expect more positive technical tailwinds, such as a return of inflows to the asset class, will be needed for spreads to tighten further. Key topics: • EM Credit: Weekly review. • Egypt surges amid foreign investment from UAE. • CEEMEA corporates: Brief review of key events: ENGPRO, KZO...
- Colin Smith
Seplat Energy - FY23 results – strong performance, more to come
Seplat delivered a strong operating and financial performance in 2023 with production up 8% to 47.8kboed and EPS increased by 27% to US$0.14, despite a near 20% fall in the oil price. Reserves increased by 9% to 478mmboe. Guidance for start-up at ANOH was reconfirmed and Seplat remains highly confident that the transformational MPNU acquisition will complete. Cash flow was strong and net debt was reduced to US$306m (YE22 US$366m). The current quarterly dividend of USc3 was supplemented with a sp...
- Colin Smith
Seplat Energy - Research Update - Valuation Catalysts
We believe Seplat has multiple catalysts for value uplift which remain poorly understood despite the share price outperformance this year. Based on new modelling, we provide detailed insights into these catalysts. Most certain are improved operational reliability and the start-up of the ANOH gas project. Completion of the MPNU acquisition and conversion to the new PIA terms could be transformative while enhanced corporate governance and the improved outlook for Nigeria add supportive context. Se...
- Stephane Foucaud
Auctus on Friday - 03/11/2023
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of A$0.80 per share: On Track to start drilling in early November - 3Q23 production of 324 boe/d and cash of A$5.7 mm at the end of September were near our expectations. This includes 101 bbl/d gross production for Anshof that was shut-in on 19 September after reaching the regulatory limit for test production. Until that date the Anshof-3 well produced at a stable rate of 114 bbl/d, which is above the...
GTE GRAN TIERRA ENERGY
CVX CHEVRON CORPORATION
OMV OMV AG
CASP CASPIAN SUNRISE
CHAR CHARIOT OIL & GAS
XOM EXXON MOBIL CORPORATION
CE1 CALIMA ENERGY
ZPHR ZEPHYR ENERGY
SDX SDX ENERGY
RDSA ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC
SOUC SOUTHERN ENERGY CORP
TCF TRILLION ENERGY INTERNATIONAL INC. (TCF)
ADX ADX ENERGY LTD
IVZ INVICTUS ENERGY
BP. BP PLC
- Colin Smith
Seplat Energy - 9M23 Results - Good performance, ANOH update
Seplat delivered a strong operating performance in 9M23, despite third-party infrastructure issues in 3Q23 with production up 11% YoY to 48.2kboed. Cash generated from operations was flat YoY while net debt was cut to US$347.6m and is expected to fall further by YE23. Guidance for FY23 was narrowed to 46-50kboed for production and US$160m-US$180m for capex. The quarterly dividend was maintained at the current run rate of USc3.0 with Seplat hinting at another potential special dividend. Seplat i...
- Colin Smith
Seplat Energy - 1H23 results – solid operating performance
Seplat delivered a solid operating performance in 1H23 with production up 2% to 50.8kboed and FY23 production guidance of 45-55kboed was reiterated. Net profit for the period was US$82.6m, down 1% YoY, on lower oil prices and net of overlift, FX loss on Naira devaluation, and higher G&A but benefitting from a low tax rate, with EPS halved to US$0.07. The dividend was maintained at the current USc3 quarterly run rate, up 20% YoY. Net cash generated from operations was US$209.4m (1H22 US$284.3m) w...
- Colin Smith
Seplat Energy - Q1 Update
Seplat reported a 1.6% YoY increase in operating profit to $103.7m for 1Q23 as higher working interest production, up 8.6% YoY to 51.7kboed, more than offset lower oil prices. Diluted EPS tripled to US$0.10 benefitting from a low tax charge which more than offset higher finance charges. Production guidance was maintained at 45-55kboed. Adjusted EBITDA slipped 5.1% to US$140.2m with cash generated from operations down 21.7% to $139.9m, impacted by a negative working capital swing, but net debt fe...
- Stephane Foucaud
Auctus on Friday - 28/04/2023
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C: Target price of A$0.100 per share: 1Q23 update – 1Q23 production in Austria was 299 boe/d. The company held A$3.41 mm in cash at the end of March. Criterium Energy (CEQ CN)C: On track for near term acquisition – The FY22 financials were in line with our expectations. The company held C$3.7 mm in cash at YE22. Criterium has also filed the notice of intention to file a short form prospectus. This could be an indica...
FP TOTAL SE
SEPL SEPLAT PETROLEUM DEVELOPMENT COMPANY
EOG EUROPA OIL & GAS (HOLDINGS) PLC
TLW TULLOW OIL PLC
HES HESS CORPORATION
OMV OMV AG
CNE CAIRN ENERGY PLC
TXP TOUCHSTONE EXPLORATION
ENI ENI S.P.A.
REP REPSOL SA
ADX ADX ENERGY
BPV BAHAMAS PETROLEUM CO. PLC
PEN PANORO ENERGY ASA
RBD REABOLD RESOURCES
UKOG UK OIL & GAS PLC
UOG UNITED OIL & GAS
GKP GULF KEYSTONE PETROLEUM LTD.
OKEA OKEA
JSE JADESTONE ENERGY
SDX SDX ENERGY
TAL PETROTAL (TAL)
HBR HARBOUR ENERGY PLC
TRIN TRINITY EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION
HHR HARTSHEAD RESOURCES NL
CEQ CRITERIUM ENERGY LTD.
NOG NOSTRUM OIL & GAS PLC
- Colin Smith
Seplat Energy - FY Results Update
Seplat reported FY22 net income of $104.7m with adjusted EBITDA up 12.1% YoY to $416.9m and debt cut to $365.9m, despite payment of $140m in transaction deposits. That enabled the Board to announce a US$0.05c special dividend taking the total for the year to $0.15 representing a yield of 11%. Seplat experienced a difficult year operationally which held back the results, nevertheless the strong cash performance saw debt cut and enabled the payment of a $0.05 special dividend. Export resilience ha...
- Chaiwat Arsirawichai
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
PTT Exploration & Production (PTTEP TB) - Strong Sales Volume Growth O...
We reiterate our long-term positive view that PTTEP will post positive sales volume growth of 3% CAGR during 2023-27 on the back of better contributions from its Erawan G1/61 gas field and major projects including the world’s second-largest LNG Mozambique, as well as the SK410B project, a world-class, large-scale project in 2027. PTTEP, OR and SPRC remain our sector top picks. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt195.00.
- Chaiwat Arsirawichai
PTT Oil & Retail Business (OR TB) - 3Q22: Results Below Consensus; Exp...
OR posted a net profit of Bt701m in 3Q22, in line with our forecast but below consensus estimate of Bt2.1b. The qoq decline in earnings was mainly due to lower earnings contributions from all business units, including mobility, lifestyle and global businesses. Going forward, we expect core earnings to improve in 4Q22 on the seasonal high in petroleum sales volume and a potentially higher marketing margin. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt33.00.
- Oliver Juggins
Seplat Energy - Q3 Results Update
In Q3 Seplat suffered from an unusually elevated level of evacuation problems, but these issues have all been addressed in time for Q4, and it is guiding strong exit production (55kboepd), at the very top end of its prior FY guidance range. As such, we expect this to be a bump in the road from which the company has already recovered, but which will leave a mark on the FY results – albeit one that is more than offset by improved oil prices, with 9M22 revenue up 34.4% at an average price of $108....
- Janet Ogabi
Seplat: Crude oil theft erodes earnings
Seplat Energy reported a pre-tax loss in Q3 of US$24mn – the first quarterly loss since the oil price crash at the start of Covid in 2020 and, before that, the militant attacks in 2016/17. This time around, the poor result can be attributed to the oil thefts that have forced oil operators to declare force majeure. The Nigerian government has taken numerous steps to put a stop to the thefts, which drove the country's oil production to under 1mn barrels per day (mbpd) in August – lower than the...
- Janet Ogabi
Seplat caught in the middle of shaky IOC exits
The past two weeks have been a rollercoaster for Seplat that has begun to weigh on the company's share price, which has dropped 4% in the London listing and 9% in Nigeria (the bulk of which occurred yesterday). On August 8, the President (who is also the Minister of Petroleum) approved Seplat's acquisition of Mobil Producing Nigeria Unlimited (MPNU), which is an oil major (or IOC – International Oil Companies). But this was repealed by the regulator soon after, and the President also withdrew...
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