reports
Habib Bank Ltd: 3 directors
Two Directors at Habib Bank Ltd sold 19,000 shares at between 152.450PKR and 160.368PKR. The significance rating of the trade was 58/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the...
United Bank Ltd: 1 director
A director at United Bank Ltd bought 1,614,598 shares at 480.919PKR and the significance rating of the trade was 77/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years c...
Moody's Ratings upgrades five Pakistani banks and changes outlook to p...
Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has today upgraded the long-term deposit ratings to Caa2 from Caa3 of five Pakistani banks: Allied Bank Limited (ABL), Habib Bank Ltd. (HBL), MCB Bank Limited (MCB), National Bank of Pakistan (NBP) and United Bank Ltd. (UBL). We have also upgraded ABL, HBL, MCB and UBL's ...
Moody's announces completion of a periodic review for a group of Pakis...
Moody's Investors Service ("Moody's") has completed a periodic review of the ratings -and other ratings that are associated with the same analytical units for the rated entity(entities) listed below. The review was conducted through a portfolio review discussion held on 30 November 2023 in which Mo...
- Yusra Beg
United Bank: Laser-sharp focus on profitability and payouts
* The signing of the IMF SBA programme has improved prospects for Pakistan’s economy, with the banking sector being the best performing at the Index in July. UBL has led the pack on a laser-sharp focus on profitability and excellent dividend yield. * We raise CY23-27f EPS estimates for UBL by 13% on average, on strong margin expansion and asset quality. We also incorporate an ultra-high cash payout ratio for the next 1-2yrs (c 100% payout in CY23f), with capital ratios appearing adequat...
- Yusra Beg
Habib Bank: 2QCY23 Review - Record high pre-tax profits
HBL has reported 2QCY23 NPAT of PKR13.0bn (EPS: PKR8.86), up 3.8x YoY / flat QoQ. This takes 1HCY23 NPAT to PKR26.2bn (EPS: PKR17.86), up 2.2x YoY. The 2Q result is in line with our expected EPS of PKR8.90, while the interim DPS of PKR2.00 is higher than our estimated DPS of PKR1.50. While total provisions and admin expenses are slightly higher than expected, these have been offset by strong non-interest income led by fee. Strong performance has led to improvement in T1 and CAR to comfortable...
- Yusra Beg
United Bank: 2QCY23 Result Review: Another stellar payout
UBL has posted consolidated 2QCY23 NPAT of PKR12.7bn (EPS: PKR10.39), up a massive 4.8x YoY and 11% QoQ. This takes 1HCY23 NPAT to PKR27.5bn (EPS: PKR22.01), up 2.3x YoY. The result is higher than our projected 2Q EPS of PKR9.50, with the deviation primarily stemming from a deferred tax reversal which reduced the overall effective tax rate. UBL also announced a higher than expected dividend of PKR11.0/sh vs. our estimate of PKR10.0/sh, translating into a 106% payout. 2QCY23 RESULTS HIGHLIGHTS...
- Yusra Beg
Pakistan Banks – 2QCY23 Result Previews - Strong core performance to c...
* Pre-tax 2QCY23 profits for the IMS Banking Universe are expected to rise 10%QoQ, reflecting strong core performance. However, net earnings may come off by 15%QoQ due to retrospective impact of super tax (10% vs. 4% previously). Payouts should remain broadly intact. * Domestic asset quality has remained resilient, which should keep the cost of risk in check. Impairment, if any, should also be contained compared to the last few quarters. We expect MEBL to stand out due to the lagged ass...
- Yusra Beg
Pakistan Banks: Returning conviction
* With the IMF staff-level agreement in place, the much needed breathing space for Pakistan's economy reinforces our liking for the banking sector. The absence of banks from debt restructuring in Zambia and Sri Lanka also provides comfort if this conversation crops up again in Pakistan next year. * 1QCY23 results indicate underlying profitability is strong, on rising margins and resilient asset quality. Our 2023-27f earnings estimates remain broadly unchanged, even as we conservatively ...
- Yusra Beg
United Bank: 1QCY23 Result Review - Dividend payout steals the show
UBL has posted consolidated 1QCY23 NPAT of PKR14.2bn (EPS: PKR11.62), up 53% YoY and 9% QoQ. The result is significantly above our projected EPS of PKR10.15, with the deviation stemming from very high Fx gains (other line items are broadly in line). Results were accompanied with a record-high interim dividend of PKR11.0/sh vs. our estimate of PKR6.0/sh. 1QCY23 RESULTS HIGHLIGHTS: * UBL has reported NII of PKR34.9bn, up 10% QoQ and 56% YoY – inline with estimates. This is a function of both m...
- Yusra Beg
Habib Bank: 1QY23 Review - Reasonable base to build upon
HBL has reported 1QCY23 NPAT of PKR13.2bn (EPS: PKR9.00), up 56% YoY / 24% QoQ. The result is inline with our expected EPS of PKR8.90, although the first interim DPS of PKR1.50 falls short of our expected PKR2.00. Relatively weak non-interest income (Fx losses), high admin expenses and a low tax rate (38% vs. 43% expected) are among the salient features of the result, which mask solid core revenue generation for the bank. 1QCY23 RESULTS HIGHLIGHTS: * NII came in at PKR55.8bn, inline with exp...
- Yusra Beg
Banks – 1QCY23 Result Previews - Earnings momentum to accelerate
* We expect the IMS Banking Universe to lift by 54% YoY and 20% QoQ in 1QCY23f, as we incorporate strong pickup in NII, a lower impairment charge on overseas bonds (for those banks that have already booked it in CY22), and a lower effective tax rate (43%). This should more than offset rising admin expenses and any untoward increase in loan provisions. * The higher interest rate environment will drive up margins while balance sheet growth remains strong. BAFL may stand out in terms of se...
- Yusra Beg
United Bank: Narrower focus on core operations
We have raised our CY23-26f EPS estimates for UBL by 11% on average, with margin-led revenue growth more than offsetting a higher cost of risk and tail-end charges on sovereign bonds. Our new TP stands at PKR155/sh vs. PKR150/sh previously, offering a 1yr total return of 69%. Despite no NPL formation as yet, Pakistan’s distressed macroeconomic profile leads us to maintain an elevated cost of risk (100bps/90bps in CY23/24f). Major ECL charges on sovereign bonds are already behind us. NIMs are ...
Moody's downgrades five Pakistani banks; deposit rating outlook change...
Moody's Investors Service ("Moody's") has today downgraded to Caa3 from Caa1 the long-term deposit ratings of five Pakistani banks: Allied Bank Limited (ABL), Habib Bank Ltd. (HBL), MCB Bank Limited (MCB), National Bank of Pakistan (NBP) and United Bank Ltd. (UBL). Moody's has also downgraded the fi...
- Yusra Beg
Habib Bank: 4QCY22 Review - Strong core revenues lead to earnings beat
HBL has reported 4QCY22 NPAT of PKR10.7bn (EPS: PKR7.27), up 28% YoY but lower by 7% QoQ. This takes CY22 NPAT to PKR34.0bn (EPS: PKR23.23), flat YoY. This is an earnings beat vs. our estimated 4Q EPS of PKR6.90, with deviation led by very strong NII which has offset a large provisioning charge of PKR4.9bn and a higher than estimated tax rate. Results were accompanied with final cash dividend of PKR1.50 (in line), taking CY22 payout to PKR6.75/sh. 4QCY22 RESULTS HIGHLIGHTS: * NII came in at ...
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