EME Equity Market – April 2024 Market performance – green across all geographies, with Turkey outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index was up 5.3% mom in EUR terms and 4.2% mom in USD in April; while the Turkish ISE30 saw the strongest performance, adding 11.6% mom; followed by the Hungarian BUX (+5.0% mom); the Czech PX (+2.8% mom); the Greek ASE (+1.8% mom), the Polish WIG20 (+1.2% mom) and the Romanian BET (+0.1% mom) (all in EUR terms).
HEADLINES: • Santander Bank Polska: 1Q24 results – 19%+ headline ROE affected only slightly by FX mortgage saga costs • Bank Pekao: 1Q24 results in line with market's expectations NEUTRAL • PCF Group: 4Q23 headlines hit heavily by write-offs, but a more limited EBITDA loss than we had expected NEUTRAL • Erste Bank: 1Q24 results NEUTRAL • OMV: 1Q24 results – chemicals stronger than expected NEUTRAL • Borouge: 1Q24 results – better than expected POSITIVE • OMV Petrom: 1Q24 results NEUTRAL • Garan...
HEADLINES: • MONETA Money Bank: strong 1Q24 delivery, on better-than- expected revenues POSITIVE • Alior Bank: books small beat on 1Q24 delivery, driven by low credit risk charges; robust 2024E outlook supported POSITIVE • Shoper: 1Q24 adjusted EBITDA 9% above our expectations; FY23 results in line with prelims POSITIVE • Mo-BRUK: 4% miss vs. our 4Q23 adjusted EBITDA forecast, weak cash flows NEGATIVE • Wizz Air: fiscal 2024 post-close trading update POSITIVE • Aselsan: CEO's comments on exports...
HEADLINES: • Kaspi.kz: 1Q24 highlights Kruk: buys more portfolios in Italy • Tupras: launches USD 256m propylene investment NEUTRAL • Turkish banks: coverage UNDER REVIEW • Sipchem: 1Q24E results preview (due on 25 April) NEUTRAL • Jeronimo Martins: 1Q24E results preview – 11% yoy EBITDA growth expected (due on 26 April, before the open) • Erste Bank: 1Q24E preview (due on 30 April) • BRD-GSG: 1Q24E preview (due on 2 May) NEUTRAL • PKO BP: 1Q24E preview (due on 9 May) • Banca Transilvania: 1Q24E...
A director at Cyfrowy Polsat S.A bought 25,000 shares at 10.226PLN and the significance rating of the trade was 56/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years cl...
A director at Kofola Ceskoslovensko A.S. bought 3,600 shares at 275.000CZK and the significance rating of the trade was 54/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two ...
• LPP: the glass is half full (stays BUY) • Eurocash: 4Q23 beat on costs, profit warning for 1Q24E • 11 bit studios: 4Q23 adjusted EBITDA beats expectations on a solid top line • Polish banks: 2024 contributions to the BFG • MOL: oil production starts on a new platform at ACG field • Ford Otosan: completes the Eurobond book-building process • Kalekim: 2023 IAS 29 results - strong operating results • Lamda: 4Q23 results - a significant step-up in Ellinikon revenues, revaluation gain on existing m...
HEADLINES: • Lamda: 4Q23 results - significant step-up in Ellinikon revenues, revaluation gain on existing malls • Electrica: proposed changes to the regulatory framework • Bank Pekao: AGM chooses new Supervisory Board members, approves PLN 19.2 DPS • 11 bit studios: release date of INDIKA moved to 2 May • Nuclearelectrica: shareholders abstain from voting on the items from yesterday’s GMS • EMEA airlines: 1Q24 traffic - a good start to the year • Budimex: 1Q24E flat yoy - profitability improvem...
HEADLINES: • Sok Marketler: weak performance in the 4Q23 results • Inter Cars: targets 15-17% yoy revenue growth this year • Polish telecoms: telecommunications fee to grow from 0.05% of sales to 0.15% sales • Polish media: CPS audience share at 21.53%, WP TV at 0.61% in March 2024 • OMV Petrom: 1Q24E results preview (due out 30 April)
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: reassessing the inflation and rates outlook to 2025E eop • Benefit Systems: strong momentum continues • Dom Development: volume growth, margins stronger for longer (stays BUY) • Kazakhstan macro: NBK keeps policy rate on hold, at 14.75% • Ford Otosan: to issue Eurobond • Bank Pekao: 1Q24E preview (results due on 30 April) • Santander Bank Polska: 1Q24E preview (results due on 30 April) • ING BSK: 1Q24E preview (results due on 7 May) • Short News (HUG)
HEADLINES: • Greek banks: life after the windfall (Alpha, Eurobank, NBG and Piraeus – transfer of coverage) • Cyfrowy Polsat: key takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings call NEUTRAL • Orlen: announces PLN 1.6bn of probable trading losses NEGATIVE • ING BSK: AGM approves PLN 33.35 DPS NEUTRAL • Public Power Corporation: partners with Mytilineos for 2GW solar portfolio NEUTRAL • InPost: PPF realises option to buy 10% stake • ONE United Properties: founders and others selling up to 9.5% in ABB • PKO BP: ...
HEADLINES: • Auto Partner: 4Q23 EBITDA misses our forecast by 4%, but the consensus by 12% NEGATIVE • Cyfrowy Polsat: 4Q23 results review – adjusted EBITDA down 17% yoy, 4% below the consensus NEGATIVE • Warsaw Stock Exchange: 4Q23 bottom-line beat lacking some quality NEUTRAL • Pepco Group: lfl worsens to -2.9% in 2Q24; new CEO appointed NEGATIVE • DataWalk: actual 4Q23 numbers fully in line with the preliminaries; strong 1Q24 sales funnel POSITIVE • CEZ: Parliament formally drops Lex CEZ 2.0 N...
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: Türkiye – unprecedented CHP victory in local elections • PGE: 4Q23 fully in line with prelims NEUTRAL • Turkish Airlines: 4Q24 conference call takeaways POSITIVE • Grupa Pracuj: key takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings call NEUTRAL • European oil and gas monthly: March 2024 – winter was survived, as expected • Poland macro: MPC keeps rates on hold, as expected • Romania macro: rates on hold, with a word of caution • Arabian Drilling: may have three offshore contracts...
HEADLINES: • Text: 4Q23-24 (calendar 1Q24) preliminary results – USD 21.7m preliminary cash flow (up 9% yoy, 2% qoq) NEGATIVE • Piraeus Port Authority: conference call takeaways • AROBS Transilvania Software: publishes 2024 budget NEUTRAL • Huuuge Games: March bookings estimate at USD 14m, up 8% mom POSITIVE • Ten Square Games: March bookings estimate mom recovery, driven by Hunting Clash POSITIVE • Benefit Systems: 1Q24 update on card base fully in line with recent guidance NEUTRAL • Turkish a...
EME Equity Market – March 2024 Market performance – mixed performances in March, with the Romanian BET outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 0.3% mom in EUR terms and 0.4% mom in USD in March. The Romanian BET reported the strongest performance, adding 7.1% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Czech PX and the Polish WIG20 (+4.1% and 1.0% mom, in EUR terms, respectively). Greece saw a relatively muted performance (-0.2% mom in EUR terms), while Hungary (-1.1% mom in EUR terms) and Tür...
HEADLINES: • Tofas: fortune favours the bold (stays BUY) • LPP: 4Q23 in line with prelims; FY24E guidance maintained; stellar rollout plans NEUTRAL • Aselsan: strong pre-IAS29 4Q23 results, bullish FY24E guidance POSITIVE • Hungary macro: MNB turns cautious, with a slower pace of rate cuts • Logo Yazilim: weak 4Q23 results, but the details matter NEGATIVE • Eurowag: takeaways from the 2H23 earnings call NEUTRAL • Wirtualna Polska: key takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings call POSITIVE • Ten Square G...
We maintain our BUY rating on Tofas, and raise our 12M price target (PT) to TRY 450.20 (from TRY 280). We believe that the investment community has adopted a highly cautious view of Tofas, continuing to exercise great caution in the domestic light vehicle market and failing to fully recognise the potential for value creation through the Stellantis agreement. In our view, the Stellantis agreement represents a notable transformation for Tofas, as it expands the company's operational reach in local...
HEADLINES: • Ten Square Games: 4Q23 adjusted EBITDA 8% above our forecast, but trading update disappoints NEUTRAL • Wirtualna Polska: 4Q23 results review – adjusted EBITDA up 3% yoy, in line with the consensus POSITIVE • Colt CZ Group SE: weak 4Q23 results, but bullish FY24E guidance NEGATIVE • Fondul Proprietatea: proposes RON 0.06 DPS (11.8% dividend yield) POSITIVE • PKO BP: new acting CEO and two new board members appointed; more to come; but CRO Mazur stays • CEZ: starts divestment of Polis...
HEADLINES: • Air Astana Group: a cash-accretive airline from the heart of Eurasia (BUY - initiation of coverage) • Elm: still a digital champion (stays HOLD) • PZU: reports solid 4Q23; high DPS potential POSITIVE • CEZ: misses on 4Q23 net profit, tepid 2024E guidance NEGATIVE • Benefit Systems: strong 4Q23 beats expectations, but company trims 2024E guidance for card additions abroad NEUTRAL • Teknosa: mixed results in 4Q23 NEGATIVE • CA Immo: 4Q23 – all about the disposals POSITIVE • Brisa: 4Q2...
HEADLINES: • Huuuge Games: 4Q23 slightly above the consensus; up to USD 70m buyback announced (14% yield) POSITIVE • KazMunayGas: 4Q23 results – weaker than expected NEGATIVE • Enea: announces significant impairment charges (PLN 2.9bn) affecting the FY23 figures NEGATIVE • MONETA Money Bank/Komercni Banka: negative impact from the drop in mortgage rates NEGATIVE • MOL: updated strategy for 2030E – conference call takeaways NEUTRAL • Sarantis: key takeaways from the Investor Day • Allegro: key ta...
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