GREATER CHINA Results Baidu Inc (9888 HK/HOLD/HK$90.20/Target: HK$93.00): 4Q24: Solid earnings beat and strong AI cloud revenue growth outlook in 2025. Hysan Development (14 HK/BUY/HK$12.58/Target: HK$14.19): 2024: Positive growth in rental income supported stable DPS. INDONESIA Update Bumi Serpong Damai (BSDE IJ/BUY/Rp1,035/Target: Rp1,440): Expect continuation of all-time high marketing sales in 2025 (+10% yoy). MALAYSIA Results Hartalega Holdings (HART MK/BUY/RM2.61/Target: RM3.14): 3QFY25:...
BSDE recorded Rp2.87t in 4Q24 marketing sales (+4.5% yoy; +44% qoq), bringing 2024 marketing sales to a record Rp9.7t (+2.3% yoy). We expect a continuation of all-time high marketing sales in 2025 (+10% yoy), driven primarily by continuous growth in the shophouse segment and land-plot sales recovery. Thus, we anticipate robust earnings growth of 15.3% in 2025 to Rp3.6t. Maintain BUY with a target price of Rp1,440 (+1.5SD discount to 2024 RNAV of 77.9%).
CTRA achieved a record-breaking Rp11t in marketing sales for 2024 (+8% yoy), while SMRA underperformed with Rp4.37t (-3.4% yoy), and BSDE is expected to meet its target. In 2025, total marketing sales are forecasted to grow 4.4% yoy. Two main catalysts in 2025 are additional rounds of interest rate cuts and VAT exemptions. The property sector is trading at an undemanding valuation of -1.5SD to the five-year mean discount to RNAV. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Top picks: BSDE and CTRA.
GREATER CHINA Economics Trade Surprising beat on exports. Sector Automobile Weekly: Trump’s tariff to reshape China automobile supply chain. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, CATL, Fuyao Glass and Desay SV. Results Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK/BUY/HK$36.35/Target: HK$46.00) 3Q24: EBITDA decline due to higher reinvestmen...
We expect the impact on Indo-US export flows to be manageable as a 10-20% tariff is unlikely to compensate for the US’ high labour cost. The risk may come from Indo-China trade as a sizeable amount of exports to China are commodities. We focus on sectors likely to benefit from domestic policies − banks, auto, property, technology and consumer − while reducing positions in commodities. Our BUYS: BBNI, BBRI, BBTN, BSDE, CTRA, CMRY, ACES, GOTO and ASII. Trim: ADRO, ITMG and INCO.
Strategy: Trump Wins: What Is The Potential Impact On Indonesia? Positives: Banking − BBNI, BBRI, BBTN; property − BSDE, CTRA; consumer − CMRY; retail − ACES; technology − GOTO. Negatives: ADRO, ITMG, INCO. TRADERS’ CORNER Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS IJ): Technical BUY Jasa Marga (JSMR IJ): Technical BUY
BSDE's 3Q24 net profit fell to Rp369b (-35.1% yoy; -58.8% qoq) on higher expenses and reduced associate income. However, 9M24 net profit surged 53% yoy to Rp2.7t, driven by strong development sales. Expectations for 4Q24 remain optimistic, as anticipated handovers and land-plot sales are expected to lift earnings, and marketing sales could hit Rp9.6t in 2024. Maintain BUY with a higher target price of Rp1,440, based on the stock’s +1.5SD five-year discount or 77.9% discount to 2025 RNAV.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Hong Kong Developers And Landlords Top developer leads strong sales rebound in Oct 24; landlords continue to face challenges from GBA integration. Sector Internet - China Encouraging monetisation visibility from adtech and LLM upgrades. Update Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK/BUY/HK$27.30/Target: HK$31.70) 3Q24 results preview: Robust growth in IoT se...
Bumi Serpong Damai (BSDE IJ/BUY/Rp1,170/Target: Rp1,440): 3Q24: Weak profit; in line with consensus estimate. Bukalapak.com (BUKA IJ/HOLD/Rp120/Target: Rp120): 3Q24: Restructuring looms as BUKA exits some businesses. Downgrade to HOLD. GoTo GoJek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ/BUY/Rp66/Target: Rp86): 3Q24: Strong performance overall but below consensus expectation. TRADERS’ CORNER Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ): Technical BUY Astra International (ASII IJ): Technical BUY
President-elect Prabowo Subianto has summoned 108 individuals to meet with him They represent the members of the 2024-29 cabinet, including 16 members from the previous cabinet. Sri Mulyani is likely to continue as the Minister of Finance. New names include Indonesia's UN ambassador, a leading academic from Tsinghua University, and the exwife of Ahok. We think the cabinet members are strong and highly competent. Our top picks are ASII, NCKL, BBNI, BBTN, BSDE, CTRA, SIDO, CMRY, BBYB and ACES.
Strategy: New Cabinet Members For 2024-29: Our top picks: ASII, NCKL, BBNI, BBTN, BSDE, CTRA, BBYB, SIDO, CMRY, and ACES. We have an end-24 target of 8,000 for the JCI. TRADERS’ CORNER Petrindo Jaya Kreasi (CUAN IJ): Technical BUY Semen Indonesia (SMGR IJ): Technical BUY
The announcement of China’s stimulus measures has impacted the JCI. Metals miners have seen a 6.8% increase in nickel prices since the announcement due to potentially higher demand for stainless steel. Coal stocks could also benefit even though prices have not rallied. Retailers and importers could potentially see an increase in COGS. We believe that funds could return back to Indonesia from late-Oct 24 onwards. Our top picks are ASII, NCKL, BBNI, BBTN, BSDE, CTRA, SIDO, CMRY, BBYB and ACES.
Strategy: China Stimulus Results In Nickel Prices Jumping 6.8%: Our top picks: ASII, NCKL, BBNI, BBTN, BSDE, CTRA, BBYB, SIDO, CMRY, and ACES. We have an end-24 target of 8,000 for the JCI. TRADERS’ CORNER Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS IJ): Technical BUY Trimegah Bangun Persada (NCKL IJ): Technical BUY
Ytd, the JCI has delivered a 10.5% return, in line with that of the MSCI Asia Pacific ex- Japan (MXAPJ) Index (11.1%). Analysis of the budget indicates 5.2% GDP growth, 2.5% CPI, 7.2% rise in state revenue and 8.9% rise in state spending. Spending on law and security, food security and education will see the largest percentage rise in 2025. The JCI is still trading near -1SD PE and we raise our Dec 24 target from 7,800 to 8,000. Our top picks are BBNI, BBTN, BSDE, CTRA, BBYB, SIDO , CMRY, ACES a...
Strategy: JCI Valuation Still Attractive, Upgrade JCI Dec 24 Target To 8,000: Our top picks are BBNI, BBTN, BSDE, CTRA, BBYB, SIDO, CMRY, ACES and JSMR. We have a new end-24 target of 8,000 for the JCI. TRADERS’ CORNER Bumi Resources (BUMI IJ): Technical BUY Aneka Tambang (ANTM IJ): Technical BUY
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: September Conviction Calls: We expect an improving operating performance among selected companies in September, and add AIA, COLI, Desay SV, Galaxy Entertainment, Meituan, Ping An and TUL to our BUY list and add Li Auto as a SELL. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Trailing The JCI’s Strong Performance In Aug 24: Our picks are ICBP, TOWR, BBNI, BMRI, BBRI, EXCL, CTRA, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO and JSMR. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Adapting To A Bipolar Market: Our Al...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: August Conviction Calls: We expect stimulus to be announced in August and add COSCO Shipping Ports, Haier Smart Home, and KE Holdings to our BUY list and add SELL call on WuXi Bio, and XPeng. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Underperformance in Jul 24: Our picks are BBNI, BMRI, BBRI, EXCL, CTRA, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO and JSMR. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Raising The M&A And Monetisation Bets: Our Alpha Picks marginally beat the KLCI. Jul 24 picks: Ekovest, Gamu...
GREATER CHINA Update Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (388 HK/BUY/HK$241.40/Target: HK$310.00) A head of steam or a flash in the pan? Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group (600887 CH/BUY/Rmb26.21/Target: Rmb30.60) Lower 2024 revenue expectation; expects active channel adjustments to lead to better liquid milk sales in 2H24. Meituan (3690 HK/BUY/HK$119.10/Target: HK$139.00) 2Q24 results preview: ISHT margin to stabili...
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