Some signs of cooling economic data out of the US, and the start of DM rate-cutting cycles has offered some optimism for EM assets, with the grind tighter in credit spreads continuing as seen for much of this year. We expect the benign environment to offer further opportunities for new issuance, while spread levels look fairly tight.
EME Equity Market – February 2024 Market performance – a positive February, with the Polish WIG20 outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 4.2% mom in EUR terms and 3.7% mom in USD in February. The Polish WIG20 saw the strongest performance, adding 6.4% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Greek ASE (+4.2% mom), the Turkish ISE30 (+4.0% mom) and the Romanian BET (+2.6% mom) (all in EUR terms). There was a relatively muted performance in Hungary (+0.6% mom in EUR terms) and a decline in the Cze...
HEADLINES: • Yapi Kredi: 4Q23 results and 2024E guidance highlights NEUTRAL • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (29 January-4 February) • Turkey macro: new CBRT Governor appointed • Wirtualna Polska: 4Q23E preview – 2% yoy adjusted EBITDA growth expected (due on 26 March) • Short News (HUG, CEZ, TRP)
EME Equity Market – October 2023 Market performance – election results prompt stellar market reaction in Poland; sell-off in Turkey. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 1.7% mom in EUR terms and 2.0% mom in USD in October. Poland staged a massive rebound, post the elections, with the WIG20 advancing 16.4% mom in EUR terms. Apart from Turkey, where October was a sell-off, with the ISE30 declining 13.7% mom in EUR terms, there were relatively muted performances everywhere else (BUX +2.1% / PX +0.4% / B...
HEADLINES: • Orlen: it'll be great when it's finished (stays BUY) • Santander Bank Polska: books solid profitability in 3Q23 • Yapi Kredi: 3Q23 highlights - better than expected, on the back of core revenues • Eurowag: 3Q23 revenues +33% yoy, FY23E margin guidance reconfirmed • Sipchem: 3Q23 results • Hungary macro: MNB cuts by 75bps, as expected • Polish banks: ZBP estimates cost of credit holidays extension at PLN 4.7-6.4bn • Orange Polska: key takeaways from the 3Q23 earnings call NEUT...
We anticipate that the relaxation of the regulatory framework and a return to more conventional policies will positively impact the banking sector. TL commercial loan/deposit spreads (front book), which had plummeted to as low as -18% by the end of June, have reached 6.6%, thanks to the removal of a cap on lending rates and lower deposit rates. Taking these favourable developments and strong 2Q23 results into account, we are raising our aggregate FY23 NI estimate for the sector by 10%. We now fo...
EME Equity Market – July 2023 Market performance – gains keep on rolling in all geographies, with special mention of Turkey’s stellar performance. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 8.6% mom in EUR terms and 9.5% mom in USD in July. Turkey clearly outperformed its peers, gaining 18.6% mom in EUR terms. Most other geographies performed more or less at similar levels, with the Polish WIG20 in the upper part of the range, advancing 7.3% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Romanian BET and Czech PX indic...
With the key central bank meetings out of the way without any major hiccups, we expect the summer lull to start to set in for EM credit markets. However, with spread levels looking tight, investors will be on the lookout for further signs of intrenched inflation or weakness in the global economy, along with expectations for an uptick in supply from September.
HEADLINES: • Yapi Kredi: 2Q23 highlights - lacklustre on most core lines • Kaspi.kz: 2Q23 highlights before the call - guidance upgrade and classified acquisition • TeraPlast: weak sales performance in 2Q23, company expects recovery in 2H23E NEGATIVE • PKO BP: PFSA not allowing dividend payment from the 2022 net profit NEUTRAL • Ford Otosan: production suspension due to annual holiday NEUTRAL • Verbund: 2Q23E results preview (due on 27 July) • Telecom Egypt: 2Q23E results preview (due in mid-...
EME Equity Market – May 2023 Market performance – in its election month and with talks of a return to investment grade starting to materialise, Greece outperformed, posting a stellar performance. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 2.3% mom in EUR terms, but lost 1.4% mom in USD in May. The Greek ASE Index saw the biggest gains (+12.3% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Hungarian BUX Index (+6.2% mom in EUR terms) and the Turkish ISE 30 Index (+3.4% mom in EUR terms). The remaining geographies finis...
While key central bank meetings passed this week without any major upset, the short-term outlook for EM is likely to be driven by global risk factors such as US banking system concerns and the debt ceiling. Spread widening could open up value given expectations for a more supportive medium-term backdrop.
EME Equity Market – April 2023 Market performance – in the black across all geographies, except for Turkey. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 3.4% mom in EUR terms and 4.9% mom in USD in April. The Polish WIG20 Index saw the biggest gains (+11.5% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Hungarian BUX Index (+7.8% mom in EUR terms) and the Greek ASE Index (+2.9% mom in EUR terms). More muted performances were witnessed in the Czech PX Index and Romanian BET Index, both adding 1.7% mom in EUR terms for th...
HEADLINES: • Eurozone macro: tweaking the GDP outlook • Yapi Kredi: 1Q23 highlights - NIM blues • PCF Group: 4Q22 EBITDA falls by 30% qoq, broadly in line with preliminary guidance NEUTRAL • Auto Partner: preliminary 1Q23 EBIT falls by 7% yoy NEGATIVE • Kazatomprom: 1Q23 update broadly in line, guidance reiterated • Kalekim: 1Q23 results - in line operationally NEUTRAL • Alkaloid: strong 1Q23, driven by exports and antibiotics POSITIVE • OMV Petrom: takeaways from the 1Q23 earnings call NEUT...
EME Equity Market – February 2023 Market performance – Greece and Czechia continue with good momentum; Turkey resumes rally. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 4.9% mom in EUR terms and 2.4% mom in USD in February. The Greek ASE and the Czech PX were, again, the best performers, adding 10.4% mom and 7.6% mom in EUR terms, respectively; while the rally resumed in Turkey, with the ISE 30 index gaining 7.3% mom in EUR terms. There was a somewhat muted performance in Hungary and Romania, with the BUX a...
HEADLINES: • MONETA Money Bank: strong 2022 results and DPS recommendation (10% yield), neutral guidance POSITIVE • Yapi Kredi: 4Q22 highlights - spreads seem to have held up better, familiar targets for 2023E • Tofas: strong beat in 4Q22 results POSITIVE • Europe macro: no surprises from the ECB • Czech Republic macro: CNB outlook • OMV Petrom: takeaways from the 4Q22 earnings call • TeraPlast: takeaways from the 4Q22 earnings call • Fondul Proprietatea: tender offer approved by FSA; te...
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