Huge improvements priced in

Gjensidige Forskring ASA: 1 director

A director at Gjensidige Forskring ASA bought 1,000 shares at 236.000NOK and the significance rating of the trade was 52/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two ye...

Gjensidige Forsikring (Hold, TP: NOK235.00) - Profitable growth ahead

On the back of repricing measures, mild winter weather, and a solid investment result, Gjensidige reported Q1 PTP of NOK1,719m, up ~60% YOY. Although we expect continued solid growth momentum on further price hikes of upwards of 19.5% in Private, the profitability focus is leading to some churn among Commercial clients. In sum, we have cut our 2026–2027e EPS by 1–2%, and reiterate our HOLD and NOK235 target price.

Financials beat just outweigh UW miss

Adj. PTP -13%/-17% vs IR and ABGSCe (higher large losses). Even more repricing could make consensus estimates unchanged. Stock valuation high, hence stock down 1-4% from the UW miss

Heads-up for Q1 report, April 29

A safer place to be

Nordic non-life Q1e: Should manage the turmoil

Positive R/R into report

Solid growth momentum into 2025e

Helped by benign weather with few storms, we expect solid underwriting across the Nordic P&C sector for Q1, with underlying performance further supported by earned repricing momentum and abating claims inflation. The sector is trading at an attractive average 2026e P/E of c15.2x and we see solid capital distribution prospects. We reiterate our recommendations on all our covered sector names and highlight Tryg as our top pick.

Non-life: Competition authority consider to look at the competition

The DCCA is out with report describing inefficient comp. Could be a drag for Tryg and ALMB despite the industry objections. ALMB drop looks attractive, but it could drag on for two more years.

Realised claims synergies ahead of plan

Realised ~2.1pp (NOK 812m), 2 years ahead of time, 75% in NO. ~50% operational, ~40% fraud & procurement & ~10% RedGo. More synergies will be taken out; consensus could improve '27e CR.

Acquire a 20% COI market stake at 7-9x P/E

Acquire Buysure that has 5-years agreements with real estate agents. A 12.5x P/E payment, but with GJF as risk carrier, more 7-9x. The NOK 430m is 4pp of its solvency; neutral to LT-positive

Norway: Best ideas Q1'25

Nordic non-life insurance – Q4 reporting wrap

Expect further improvements in UW

Gjensidige Forsikring (Hold, TP: NOK230.00) - Long-awaited turnaround

Q4 PTP was NOK1,605m, 2% higher YOY, but with a significant underwriting improvement following 11.6% insurance revenue growth and a 6.5%-points stronger underlying claims ratio YOY. Following price hikes of ~19% for Motor Norway from January, we expect the underwriting performance to drive growth momentum in 2025, closing in on the 2026 combined ratio target of

Massive improvement y-o-y; stock up

Adj. PTP +23% vs IR cons (UW & financials), -1% vs ABGSCe (financials); Expect repricing to continue to filter trough and increase profitability; Cons. est. up 3-6% for 25e-26; stock to follow 3-6%

Market hit it hard for financials

Heads-up for Q4-report 24 January

Repricing set to support profitability

The outlook for strong growth momentum in the Nordic P&C sector remains, with the recent rounds of premium repricing yet to take full effect. Furthermore, underwriting profitability is still a key focus, illustrated by Tryg raising its long-term combined ratio target to ~81% at the 2024 CMD. We believe signs of slowing claims inflation, albeit from high levels, together with mostly normal weather, bode well for Q4 underwriting. We have three BUYs and one HOLD, and highlight Sampo as our top sect...