Repricing the tonic for bad weather

We expect above-normal weather-related claims in Q1 as a result of heavy rain and snowfall (and record-low temperatures) in the Nordics at the start of the year. On the positive side, we believe the non-life insurers should see the effects of 2023’s repricing efforts, while their latest CMD presentations leave us confident the sector remains committed to maintaining underwriting discipline. Tryg is our top pick in the Nordic P&C sector, while we also reiterate our BUYs on Sampo and Gjensidige an...

Storebrand ASA - Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships & Alliance...

Summary Marketline's Storebrand ASA Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships & Alliances and Investments report includes business description, detailed reports on mergers and acquisitions (M&A), divestments, capital raisings, venture capital investments, ownership and partnership transactions undertaken by Storebrand ASA - Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships & Alliances since January2007. Marketline's Company Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships & Alliances and Investments repor...

Gjensidige Forsikring (Buy, TP: NOK190.00) - Strong price hikes in 202...

A harsh winter offset solid investments as Q4 pre-tax profit was 4% lower YOY. The underlying claims ratio increased 5.1%-points YOY following difficult weather conditions and higher underlying claims frequency. On strong 1 January renewals and announced price hikes of 10% for Motor, we believe claims inflation and frequency will be managed as price hikes are set to take effect through 2024. We have cut our 2024–2025e EPS by 0–4%, and reiterate our BUY and NOK190 target price.

Underwriting to remain disciplined

We expect heavy rainfall in Denmark and an early winter in the Nordics to lead to somewhat above-normalised claims in Q4, but strong equity markets and marked-to-market gains on bond investments to offset a rise in reported combined ratios. Despite higher interest rates in 2023, we remain confident that insurers will continue to focus on maintaining underwriting discipline. We still find the sector attractive long-term, and highlight Tryg as our top pick in the sector.

Gjensidige Forsikring (Buy, TP: NOK190.00) - Ambitious long-term targe...

Gjensidige hosted its 2023 CMD in Oslo on 22 November. Key focus was the revised set of financial targets for 2024–2026 and profitable growth in Denmark. Gjensidige’s

Gjensidige Forsikring (Buy, TP: NOK185.00) - Continued strong premiums...

Severe weather and a large IT write-down hit the Q3 results as Gjensidige reported flat PTP YOY, despite insurance revenues growing 13% YOY. The underlying claims ratio was 2.7%-points higher YOY, down from the 3.8%-points deterioration seen in Q2. Motor claims frequency remains an issue, but the company is taking steps to reprice, as seen in the 9.5% local currency insurance revenue growth. We reiterate our BUY and NOK185 target price.

Insr Insurance Group ASA - Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships ...

Summary Marketline's Insr Insurance Group ASA Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships & Alliances and Investments report includes business description, detailed reports on mergers and acquisitions (M&A), divestments, capital raisings, venture capital investments, ownership and partnership transactions undertaken by Insr Insurance Group ASA - Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships & Alliances since January2007. Marketline's Company Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships & Alliances a...

Gjensidige Forskring ASA: 3 directors

Three Directors at Gjensidige Forskring ASA bought 4,300 shares at between 149.500NOK and 153.500NOK. The significance rating of the trade was 51/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's direc...

Gjensidige Forsikring (Buy, TP: NOK185.00) - Claims frequency on the r...

The underlying claims ratio deteriorated by 3.7%-points in Q2, mostly due to increased claims frequency in Motor, Property, Travel and Health. Also, management raised its claims inflation estimates, partly to account for auto parts given the weakening NOK – and it is likely to take a few quarters for repricing efforts to offset this. As a result, we have reduced our 2024–2025e EPS by 3–4%, and in turn our target price to NOK185(195). However, given the potential upside, we reiterate our BUY.

Heating up

Q2 has been warm and dry, and although this may support higher claims frequency, there have also been several large claim events in the Nordics QTD. We expect the rational repricing over the past few quarters to continue to bear fruit, supporting underwriting quality and insurance revenue growth. While Q2 investment returns could be hurt by rising rates, the long-term yield outlook has been strengthened. We continue to highlight Sampo and Tryg as our top sector picks.

Storebrand ASA - Strategy, SWOT and Corporate Finance Report

Summary Storebrand ASA - Strategy, SWOT and Corporate Finance Report, is a source of comprehensive company data and information. The report covers the company's structure, operation, SWOT analysis, product and service offerings and corporate actions, providing a 360˚ view of the company. Key Highlights Storebrand ASA (Storebrand) is a financial services company. The company provides a range of savings, pension and insurance products catering to requirements of its clientele comprising privat...

Gjensidige Forsikring (Buy, TP: NOK195.00) - Solid underwriting perfor...

Strong growth from repricing and favourable FX led Q1 insurance revenues to rise 10% YOY, which along with a 1.4%-points improvement of the combined ratio yielded an insurance service result of NOK1,115m, up 23% YOY. Although the underlying claims trend was softer, adjusting for large claims and run-off gains, much of this was due to poor Q1 weather conditions, which Gjensidige does not adjust for in its underlying calculations. We have made only modest 2024–2025e EPS revisions due to this repor...

Winter without the windy weather

The winter months saw fewer storms than in 2022, and warmer weather than in 2021, although bouts of heavy snow should lead to increased motor claims in Q1, given the return to pre-pandemic driving patterns. While we see solid underwriting with support from investments, the move to IFRS 17 is likely to affect reporting and reduce comparability somewhat, although underlying profitability should be unaffected. We highlight Sampo and Tryg as our top picks among the large Nordic non-life companies.

Northern Lights

Gjensidige Forsikring (Buy, TP: NOK210.00) - Still more room for divid...

Gjensidige reported Q4 pre-tax profit of NOK1,694m, up 2.6% YOY (adjusted for the gain on the Oslo Areal sale booked in Q4 2021). Despite still-strong premium growth, higher claims in Commercial Norway and Denmark led to a 2.3%-point deterioration in the underlying claims ratio YOY. A Q4 Solvency II ratio of 179% was around the mid-point of the 150–200% guidance, and the board proposed a DPS of NOK8.25 for 2022. We reiterate our BUY, but have lowered our target price to NOK210 (220).

Set for dividends in the after-Life

A cold winter across the Nordics should mean seasonally high claims for the P&C companies, although few major storms indicate normalised weather claims in Q4. With the rebound in financial markets, and the MSCI World index up c9%, earnings are set to receive a long-awaited uplift from equities and higher fixed-income yields. We expect significant capital distributions as Topdanmark issues the proceeds from its Life divestment, and Sampo set to propose a further release of Nordea proceeds. Sampo ...

Gjensidige - IFRS

ROE ambition to >20% (>19%) lower equity & higher rates CR lowered to

Gjensidige Forsikring (Buy, TP: NOK220.00) - Record-strong underwritin...

A record-strong underwriting result of NOK1,909m was not enough to offset the investment losses caused by continued financial market turmoil, leading to a notably softer pre-tax profit YOY. The strong underwriting trend persisted too, with 8.2% YOY local-currency premium growth. We continue to believe Gjensidige will stay ahead of claims inflation, and have raised our 2023–2024e EPS by 1–2% on expectations of higher growth and continued robust underwriting. We reiterate our BUY and NOK220 target...

Gjensidige - Is current dividend yield good enough?

Strong UW, driven by cost ratio and commercial Still expect deterioration of underlying claims ratio in ‘23-‘24 HOLD: dividend yields in the lower end of peers

Gjensidige - Q3:underlying UW much better, poor financials

Adj. PTP -19% vs ABG, -14% vs cons, amid financials Underl. UW +8% vs ABG, +5% vs cons, premiums in line Cons. est. likely up 1-3% for ’23e-24e; stock up +2-5%