Following the Q3 results yesterday, we have updated our forecasts to reflect weaker-than-expected subscriber trends in the quarter. While FY26 revenue guidance remains intact, the deterioration in customer volumes leads us to reduce our medium-term subscriber assumptions and, in turn, our longer-term revenue expectations. We assess the impact this has on value and the potential for higher future SAC spending.
TalkTalk has reported Q3 results (ending Nov 2025) and will host an analyst call later this morning. Aside from the recent M&A speculation, the company’s operational performance remains challenged with subscriber trends weaker in the quarter, despite new advertising campaigns around the rebrand
Sky News is reporting that TalkTalk has begun contacting potential acquirers for its consumer (TTC) and wholesale (PXC) divisions. We also believe that this could also involve a sale of the whole business. We explore our latest thoughts on next steps.
TalkTalk’s H1 results show that customer momentum remains a challenge for them given the price competitive nature of the UK market which allow customers to switch with more ease than in the past. Working capital outflow has also been higher than expected.
In early June, we upgraded the TalkTalk 1st lien debt to Buy – and it has since rallied from 45 to 75. We have also now seen a good degree of the Consumer changes that TalkTalk highlighted were coming earlier this year and based on what we have seen, we see no reason to change our existing forecasts. In this note, we therefore run through the new initiatives, the valuation and hence, the driver of our decision to move the 1st lien bonds back to Neutral.
In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Trivium, Applus, Altice France (SFR), Casino Guichard-Perrachon, International Personal Finance, TeamSystem, Aston Martin, Virgin Media O2, Liberty Global, TalkTalk, Recordati, Tata Motors, Nexans, Italmatch Chemicals, Itelyum Group, Teva
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