Shuanghuan’s 3Q24 results were at the high end of the preliminary results range, with revenue slightly lower than market expectations, which is more than offset by the strong margin expansion. Going forward, the EV gear and smart actuator business will remain the key growth drivers, driven by share gains and overseas order wins. Margins are also expected to expand steadily as Shuanghuan continues to optimise its production efficiency. Maintain BUY and raise target price to Rmb35.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results ASMPT (522 HK/BUY/HK$87.00/Target: HK$104.50) ASMPT’s Semi solution business registered better-than-expected revenue and margins in 3Q24 thanks to robust advanced packaging demand, which led to a 10% beat vs our operating profit estimates, although reported net profit ended up below expectations due to forex loss. ASMPT will remain a key beneficiary of the AI investment trend, and we recommend accumulating after its recent share price correction. Maintain BUY. Target p...
GREATER CHINA Results ASMPT (522 HK/BUY/HK$87.00/Target: HK$104.50): 3Q24: Reported earnings miss expectations on forex loss but core business recovery picking up; maintain BUY. BYD Company (1211 HK/HOLD/HK$295.00/Target: HK$260.00): 3Q24: Earnings up 12% yoy, in line with estimates. Maintain HOLD. China Construction Bank (939 HK/BUY/HK$5.97/Target: HK$6.70): 3Q24: Earnings growth returns to positive territory on lower credit cost. Foxconn Industrial Internet (601138 CH/BUY/Rmb24.84/Target: Rmb...
Shuanghuan’s 2Q24 results were above expectations and the preliminary results, thanks to the growing civil and PV gear segments and well-managed opex. The coaxial gearbox continues to be well received and looks set to help raise content per vehicle to Rmb3,000, bolstering growth and margins in the mid to long term. Smart home products and other new growth drivers are also expected to bolster growth of the smart actuator business in the long term. Maintain BUY. Target price: Rmb27.80.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Baosteel (600019 CH/BUY/Rmb5.85/Target: Rmb7.90) Baosteel reported 1H24 earnings of Rmb4,554.6m (-0.2% yoy), representing 34% of our full-year estimate and below expectations. Steel products’ gross margin rose to 3.7% (+0.7ppt yoy). Differentiated products’ sales volume increased to Rmb15.09m (+17.2% yoy), remaining as the key earnings contributor during the industry downcycle. Steel products’ export volume grew to 3.05m (+2% yoy), on track to achieve the annual target...
GREATER CHINA Results BYD Electronic (285 HK/BUY/HK$27.65/Target: HK$42.50) 1H24: Results missed on margins. Expect peak season to bolster profitability in 2H24. China Feihe (6186 HK/BUY/HK$4.04/Target: HK$5.22) 1H24: Steady profit growth; accelerated revenue expansion in 2H24. China Longyuan Power (916 HK/HOLD/HK$6.16/Target: HK$6.10) 1H24: Below expectations; power generation dragged by low wind speed. ...
Shuanghuan’s 1Q24 results arrived at the midpoint of its profit guidance, which is in line with our and consensus estimates. Both the ICE-car and EV gear businesses registered a solid >20% yoy growth, while the civil gear business managed to register a profit during the quarter. For 2024, a recovery in ICE-car gears, product upgrade for EV gears, and the rapid expansion of the civil gear business seem to be the key growth drivers for Shuanghuan. Maintain BUY and keep target price at Rmb27.60.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics PMI Manufacturing PMI came in better than expected at 50.4% (-0.4ppt) and stayed in the expansionary zone for the second month. It was mainly supported by production and new orders as employment remained a drag, dropping 0.1ppt to 48.0%. Non-manufacturing hit a three-month low of 51.2%, dragged by moderation in new orders and business expectations. We expect policy support to continue and the July Politburo may see new measures being rolled out. Sector Aviation T...
GREATER CHINA Sector Macau Gaming Apr 24 GGR down 5% mom; downgrade to MARKET WEIGHT. Results China Construction Bank (939 HK/BUY/HK$5.10/Target: HK$6.00) 1Q24: Results in line with better NIM performance. LONGi Green Energy Technology (601012 CH/SELL/Rmb18.20/Target: Rmb14.38) 2023/1Q24: Below expectations; inventory write-down wipes out earnings. Downgrade to SELL. PICC Property and Casualty (2328 HK/BUY/HK$9.71/Target: HK$11.70) 1Q24: Earnings miss on higher COR and lower investment income...
Shuanghuan’s 4Q23 results are in line with our estimates and preliminary results, although the revenue was slightly below due to a weaker-than-expected EV gear business. In 2024, growth of the EV gear business should stabilise, but the high growth period is likely over, while the overseas business and development of the newlyacquired civil gear business will be crucial for Shuanghuan to find a new growth driver. Maintain BUY but cut target price to Rmb27.60.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics Money Supply Slower-than-expected credit expansion. Trade Exports drop 7.5% and imports fall 1.9%. Sector Healthcare ICL: Recent policies may cloud revenue growth in 2024; accelerating market consolidation to benefit leading players. Results Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co (002472 CH/BUY/Rmb21.60/Target: Rmb27.60) 4Q23: Results in line; but slowdown in EV gear business is apparent. HSI AND HS TECH INDEX OUTLOOK
GREATER CHINA Economics Money Supply: Slower-than-expected credit expansion. Trade: Exports drop 7.5% and imports fall 1.9%. Sector Healthcare: ICL: Recent policies may cloud revenue growth in 2024; accelerating market consolidation to benefit leading players. Results Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co (002472 CH/BUY/Rmb21.60/Target: Rmb27.60): 4Q23: Results in line; but slowdown in EV gear business is apparent. MALAYSIA Sector Banking: The operational commencement of the various new digital bank...
We are starting to see a marginal orders recovery in some cyclical verticals and consumer electronics, although visibility is still limited while the impact from foreign brands’ destocking may last into 1Q24. Demand drivers will shift in 2024 as cyclicals and consumer electronics recover while solar and Li-ion weaken; as such, brands with a diversified product mix should be better positioned to capture the recovery cycle in 4Q23-1H24. Downgrade to MARKET WEIGHT as the recovery turned out weaker ...
Shuanghuan’s 3Q23 net profit was in line with preliminary results, while top-line growth was better than our expectation with a steadily improving PV/CV business and strong growth in the civil gear/robotic reducer business. Going forward, management expects a healthy growth for the PV gear business as inventory correction comes to an end, and remains confident in achieving 2024’s incentive target of Rmb950m. Trim target price to Rmb31.80 but upgrade to BUY on undemanding valuation.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Strategy Small-Mid Cap Biweekly Pet food exports on track for recovery; beneficiary: Yantai China Pet Food. Results BYD Company (1211 HK/BUY/HK$246.20/Target: HK$630.00) 3Q23: Earnings up 82% yoy and 53% qoq, in line. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$630.00. China Construction Bank (939 HK/BUY/HK$4.48/Target: HK$6.00) 3Q23: Results in line; earnings up 2.6% on lower credit costs. China Merchants Bank Co. (3968 HK/BUY/HK$30.30/Target: HK$45.00) 3Q23: Results miss; longer wait ne...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Small-Mid Cap Biweekly: Pet food exports on track for recovery; beneficiary: Yantai China Pet Food. Results BYD Company (1211 HK/BUY/HK$246.20/Target: HK$630.00): 3Q23: Earnings up 82% yoy and 53% qoq, in line. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$630.00. China Construction Bank (939 HK/BUY/HK$4.48/Target: HK$6.00): 3Q23: Results in line; earnings up 2.6% on lower credit costs. China Merchants Bank Co. (3968 HK/BUY/HK$30.30/Target: HK$45.00): 3Q23: Results miss; longer wait need...
As foreign brands struggled to destock amid a tough macro environment, domestic automation names maintained the robust momentum in market share gains, with both Inovance and Estun seeing record-high market shares during 2Q23. The market’s recovery is slower than expected, but we are starting to see more positive signs, such as a pick-up in demand from cyclical end-markets, and slightly better sentiments from consumer electronic names. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
While the 2Q23 headline numbers are in line with preliminary results, the detailed breakdown shows that the EV business’ sales growth was slightly behind our expectations, but this is more than offset by the robust recovery in the CV business. Also, the stable margins amid the EV price war showcases Shuanghuan’s strong pricing power over its client, and we expect its sales growth to pick up in 2H23 with the shipment orders recovering since June. Maintain HOLD and raise target to Rmb36.20.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Insurance Outstanding 1H23 results from PICC P&C, Ping An and Prudential. Results China Longyuan Power (916 HK/BUY/HK$6.27/Target: HK$8.80) 1H23: Above expectations; wind power utilisation hours grew 8.4% yoy. China Merchants Port (144 HK/BUY/HK$9.46/Target: HK$13.33) 1H23: Results broadly in line; attractive valuation amid cautious outlook. Maintain BUY. CR Land (1109 HK/BUY/HK$33.25/Target: HK$47.48) 1H23: Results beat expectations; leading market position further str...
GREATER CHINA Sector Insurance: Outstanding 1H23 results from PICC P&C, Ping An and Prudential. Results China Longyuan Power (916 HK/BUY/HK$6.27/Target: HK$8.80): 1H23: Above expectations; wind power utilisation hours grew 8.4% yoy. CR Land (1109 HK/BUY/HK$33.25/Target: HK$47.48): 1H23: Results beat expectations; leading market position further strengthened. Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK/SELL/HK$40.15/Target: HK$33.00): 2Q23: Report profit beats on one-off gains, core earnings in line. Maintain SELL....
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