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Arise AB: 1 director

A director at Arise AB bought 10,000 shares at 37.890SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 69/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly show...

Hanna Forsgren ... (+2)
  • Hanna Forsgren
  • Olof Cederholm

Arise - A solid report but weak winds

We lower ’23e EBIT by 4% Negatively affected by hedge prices The share is trading at ~6x P/E on 2023e

Hanna Forsgren ... (+2)
  • Hanna Forsgren
  • Olof Cederholm

Arise - Strong Q3 helped by Kölvallen

EBITDA SEK 713m vs. ABGSCe SEK 718m Renewable energy project portfolio of >2,600 MW Conference call at 11.00 CET

Hanna Forsgren ... (+2)
  • Hanna Forsgren
  • Olof Cederholm

Arise - Boosted by Kölvallen sale

Q3 due on Wednesday, 9 November Sale of Kölvallen the key EBIT driver Share trading at ~3x adj. EV/EBIT on 2023e

Adrian Gilani ... (+2)
  • Adrian Gilani
  • Olof Cederholm

Arise - Kölvallen transaction a key value driver

Q2 report overshadowed by Kölvallen divestment Kölvallen to add SEK 690m to Q3 Value range at SEK 80-130

Adrian Gilani ... (+2)
  • Adrian Gilani
  • Olof Cederholm

Arise - Solid start to 2022

Q1’22 EBITDA in line with our expectation We leave ’22e-’23e EBITDA roughly unchanged Maintain SEK 60-120 fair value range

Adrian Gilani ... (+2)
  • Adrian Gilani
  • Olof Cederholm

Arise - Good Q1 with EBITDA in line with expectations

Q1’22 EBITDA of SEK 61m, in line with ABGSCe Production EBITDA SEK 65m above ABGSCe SEK 59m Limited earnings revisions expected

Adrian Gilani ... (+2)
  • Adrian Gilani
  • Olof Cederholm

Arise - Electricity price outlook remains strong

Q4’21 adj. EBIT of SEK 45m vs. ABGSCe SEK 52m Kölvallen still planned to be sold in Q2 Lower EBIT on lower margins & realised electricity prices

Adrian Gilani ... (+2)
  • Adrian Gilani
  • Olof Cederholm

Arise - High electricity prices support estimates

Q4’21 report due on 17 February We raise ’21-’23e EBIT by 2-5% on higher electricity prices Increase fair value range to SEK 60-140 (50-118)

Adrian Gilani ... (+2)
  • Adrian Gilani
  • Olof Cederholm

Arise - Hedging lowers ’22e earnings risks

Q3’21 EBIT of SEK 61m vs. ABGSCe of SEK 56m Hedging of electricity prices for Q4’21e and ‘22e Maintain SEK 50-118 value range

Adrian Gilani ... (+2)
  • Adrian Gilani
  • Olof Cederholm

Arise - Good Q3, hedging high electricity prices

Q3’21 EBITDA of SEK 76m, +4% vs. ABGSCe Hedging 1/3 of ‘22e electricity production at EUR 80/MWh Project pipeline at 2.6 GW, ongoing projects as expected

Adrian Gilani ... (+2)
  • Adrian Gilani
  • Olof Cederholm

Arise - Expect better Q3 from development/production

Q3 report due on Nov 10 at 8.00 CET We expect Q3 EBITDA of SEK 73m Fair value range of SEK 50-118 reiterated

Ofelia Aspemyr
  • Ofelia Aspemyr

Arise - Good project execution needed

Q2’21 EBIT of SEK -6m (vs. ABGSCe at SEK 7m) Est. revisions from postponed projects and lower margins New value range of SEK 50-118 (53-122)

Ofelia Aspemyr
  • Ofelia Aspemyr

Arise - Pipeline expansion from partnership

Entering partnership with HT Skogar in price area SE3 Increases development portfolio to >2.6 GW (~1.1 GW) We raise our fair value range to SEK 53-122 (49-114)

Ofelia Aspemyr
  • Ofelia Aspemyr

Arise - Materialising the divestment of 240 MW

Divesting the Ranasjö and Salsjöhöjden wind farms ’21-’23e est. adjustments due to project timing and profits Fair value range reiterated; SEK 49-114 per share

Ofelia Aspemyr
  • Ofelia Aspemyr

Arise - Own producion showed improved profitability

Q1 EBITDA of SEK 23m (ABGSCe at SEK 20m) Own production slightly better than expected Trading at 9.5x ‘21e EV/EBITDA, down to 2.3x in ‘22e

Ofelia Aspemyr
  • Ofelia Aspemyr

Arise - Taking a long-term perspective

A closer look at the project business Valuing the long-term portfolio with 100-300 MW added p.a. Value range of SEK 53-117/share, depending on pipeline

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