HEADLINES: • Greek banks: take a bow (Alpha downgraded to HOLD, Eurobank stays HOLD, NBG stays BUY and Piraeus upgraded to BUY) • PGE: new strategy assumes PLN 30bn of EBITDA in 2035E and PLN 235bn in capex in 2025-35E NEUTRAL • Bank Pekao/PZU: call for analysts and investors to discuss potential merger • CCC: final 1Q25 results spot on the prelims NEUTRAL • Romania macro: inflation jumps in May • GEK Terna: clinches EUR 1bn of Romanian railway projects POSITIVE • Athens Exchange Group: AGM appr...
HEADLINES: • Inter Cars: May sales growth accelerates to 13% yoy POSITIVE • 11 bit studios: Steam demo of Moonlighter 2 attracted limited interest and disappointing reviews NEGATIVE • Orange Polska: increases prices for its Nju mobile post-paid tariffs POSITIVE • cyber_Folks: acquires Romanian hosting company Hosterion for EUR 6.7m NEUTRAL • DO & CO: 4Q FY25E preview - 7% EBITDA growth yoy (due on 12 June) • Text: 4Q24-25E preview – 10% yoy EBITDA increase expected (due on 27 June)
HEADLINES: • cyber_Folks: e-commerce first – a new chapter begins (stays BUY) • Shoper: new investor, new opportunities (stays BUY) • Vercom: solid growth, boosted potentially by M&A (upgraded to BUY) • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (2-8 June) • Auto Partner: May sales disappoint, with limited 8% yoy growth NEGATIVE • 11 bit studios: launch trailer of The Alters and new Moonlighter 2 trailer presented during PC Gaming Show NEUTRAL
EME Equity Market – May 2025 EME indices mostly in the green in May, apart from Türkiye. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 3.6% mom in EUR and USD terms. The Greek ASE index (+7.8% mom) was the best performer, followed by the Czech PX (+6.6% mom) and Romanian BET indices (+5.0% mom), the Hungarian BUX (+4.0% mom) and the Polish WIG20 (+2.0% mom; all in EUR terms). The Turkish ISE30 Index was, again, the worst performer, with a more modest decline (-1.4% mom in EUR terms) this time.
HEADLINES: • Middle Eastern oil services: time to switch horses (ADNOC Drilling downgraded to HOLD, Arabian Drilling upgraded to BUY) • Poland macro: Presidential election – final results and implications • 4iG: 1Q25 results review – 11% yoy increase in reported EBITDA, in line with our estimate NEUTRAL • GTC: 1Q25 – some notes, post the results • PCF Group: suspension of development works on Gemini and Bifrost, over 60 people to be laid off NEGATIVE • OMV: to sell stake in Ghasha sour gas proje...
We have downgraded ADNOC Drilling to HOLD (from Buy), with an updated price target (PT) of AED 5.61 (from AED 5.01); and upgraded Arabian Drilling to BUY (from Hold), with an updated PT of SAR 104.0 (from SAR 163.0). ADNOC Drilling was the star of 2024, while Arabian Drilling suffered from the fallout from Saudi Aramco’s cancelled expansion projects. Increased liquidity in ADNOC Drilling saw its index inclusion and new investors driving the share price performance. We expect 2025E to bring highe...
HEADLINES: • OPAP: 1Q25 – strong, as expected NEUTRAL • CD Projekt: 1Q25 EBIT broadly as expected, guidance on three unannounced projects POSITIVE • VIGO Photonics: adjusted EBITDA up 2x yoy (on a low base), in line with our estimate NEUTRAL • DataWalk: actual 1Q25 numbers fully in line with the preliminaries NEUTRAL • Kazatomprom: 1Q25 results – much weaker than expected NEGATIVE • Lamda Development: 1Q25 results – opex outside the Ellinikon better than expected, but quarterly capex still slow ...
HEADLINES: • Bank Handlowy: sells retail operations, sets 2027E ROE target of 19% • Asseco Poland: 1Q25 review – net profit up 9% yoy, in line with the consensus; 2025 backlog up 10% yoy POSITIVE • PGE: full 1Q25 results in line with the preliminaries NEUTRAL • Huuuge Games: 1Q25 adjusted EBITDA in line with our expectations NEUTRAL • Diagnostyka: 1Q25 results in line with expectations NEUTRAL • Benefit Systems: 1Q25 earnings call takeaways – very optimistic on MAC Group POSITIVE • Grupa Pracuj:...
HEADLINES: • Polish food retail: turning the corner (initiating on Zabka with a BUY, Eurocash and Jeronimo stay BUY, Dino stays SELL) • Benefit Systems: 1Q25 adjusted EBIT up 14% yoy, 10% above our forecast POSITIVE • Grupa Pracuj: 1Q25 results – adjusted EBITDA up 11% yoy, in line with our forecast, 4% above the consensus POSITIVE • Wirtualna Polska: 1Q25 results review – adjusted EBITDA up 2% yoy, 2% above the consensus NEUTRAL • Athens Exchange Group: 1Q25 results in line with expectations NE...
HEADLINES: InPost: international level (stays BUY) Romania macro: presidential election - final results Poland macro: election results 11 bit studios: 1Q25 earnings call – happy with wishlist for The Alters, no plans for pre-orders NEUTRAL Budimex: PLN 1.7bn offer rated the highest in the railway tender POSITIVE Mo-BRUK: management recommends PLN 13.17 DPS from the 2024 earnings NEUTRAL Greek banks: the Greek media reports that the banks could look into reacquiring working mortgages from NPL ser...
HEADLINES: • VIGO Photonics: top Polish defence industry exposure (downgraded to HOLD) • PGE: strong 1Q25 recurring EBITDA, 26% above our expectations POSITIVE • 11 bit studios: weak 1Q25, misses our forecast, on higher opex NEGATIVE • Dino: 2-7% EBITDA beats in 1Q25 NEUTRAL • Krka: 1Q25 – record net profit, on high FX revaluation gains POSITIVE • GEVORKYAN: strong 1Q25 - EBITDA 15% above our expectations, but 2025E guidance implies an EBITDA margin contraction POSITIVE • HELLENiQ Energy: 1Q25 r...
HEADLINES: • PZU: solid 1Q25 results, ahead of the market's expectations; some upside risk for2025E EPS forecasts POSITIVE • CEZ: 1Q25 beat on distribution and sales segments, disposal of Polish assets POSITIVE • Eurocash: 1Q25 – weak, as expected NEGATIVE • Warsaw Stock Exchange: strong 1Q25, with a significant net income beat POSITIVE • Sphera Group: 1Q25 softer than expected; FY25E budget below our forecasts NEGATIVE • Banca Transilvania: bottom-line miss, due mainly to asset quality deterior...
HEADLINES: • BIM: weak results in 1Q25 NEGATIVE • MOL: 1Q25 results – strong EBITDA, big net income beat POSITIVE • OTP Bank: neutral 1Q25 results, but supported strongly by Russian operations NEUTRAL • AmRest: 1Q25 below expectations, due to EUR 5m negative one-off NEUTRAL • NLB Group: small bottom-line miss in 1Q25, but guidance maintained NEUTRAL • National Bank of Greece: 1Q25 highlights POSITIVE • Eurobank Ergasias Services: 1Q25 highlights NEUTRAL • Alpha Services and Holdings: 1Q25 highli...
HEADLINES: • ING BSK: 1Q25 results in line with expectations and our annual 2025E expectations NEUTRAL • Jeronimo Martins: beat in 1Q25; Biedronka margin stabilised, despite adverse calendar effect; FY25E guidance maintained POSITIVE • Bank Handlowy: dull 1Q25 results; dividend recommendation due later in May; uncertainty over impact of sale of retail operations persisting NEUTRAL • Budimex: 1Q25 EBITDA misses forecast slightly, backlog down marginally qoq, but rising amount of pending contracts...
HEADLINES: • Raiffeisen Bank International: 1Q25 results largely in line NEUTRAL • ADNOC Distribution: 1Q25 results NEUTRAL • Enea: preliminary 1Q25 EBITDA 13% above our expectations, driven by strong Supply; only 8% of 2025E capex plan realisation POSITIVE • Titan America: soft 1Q25 results, guidance unchanged NEUTRAL • Romania macro: reflections on the resignation of PM Ciolacu • Brisa: takeaways from the 1Q25 earnings call NEUTRAL • Inter Cars: earnings call takeaways - targeting 2025E revenu...
EME Equity Market – April 2025 EME indices mostly in the red in April, Hungarian BUX and Greek ASE the exceptions. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 2.0% mom in EUR terms, but was up 2.9% mom in USD terms in April. The Hungarian BUX was the best performer, followed by the Greek ASE index (+3.5% and 0.8% mom in EUR terms, respectively). There was a slight decline in the Polish WIG20, and more pronounced deteriorations in the Romanian BET and Czech PX indices (-0.6%, -2.0% and -4.2% mom in EUR ...
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