reports
- Jakub Krawczyk
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: LPP PW; EEMEA Macro; TRESTATE GA; MOH GA; EUR PW; TXT PW; ...
HEADLINES: • LPP: mediocre 4Q24 – EBIT 4-5% below expectations, but decent start to the year; FY25E guidance broadly maintained, and FY26-27E guidance of stable margins, despite major sales growth acceleration POSITIVE • EEMEA macro: US reciprocal tariff effects • Trade Estates: strong 2024 results POSITIVE • Motor Oil Hellas: 4Q24 results – CCS EBITDA in line with the consensus, but net income weak NEUTRAL • Eurocash: 4Q24 in line with the prelims NEUTRAL • Text: 4Q24-25 (calendar 1Q25) prelimi...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: MAVI TI; TL Banks; GPW PW; BFT PW; MOL HB; EU Macro; DNP P...
HEADLINES: • Mavi: a mispriced story with solid fundamentals (BUY - reinitiation of coverage) • Turkish banks: weather vs. climate (reinitiating on Akbank, Garanti, Isbank and Yapi Kredi with HOLDs) • Warsaw Stock Exchange: just move on up (stays BUY) • Benefit Systems: March sports cards addition surprises positively, mostly in Poland POSITIVE • MOL: announces dividend proposal of HUF 275/share NEUTRAL • EU macro: cohesion funds can be deployed for defence, housing and energy investments • Dino...
- Research Team
The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: Türkiye in the red, again
EME Equity Market – March 2025 Türkiye hammered, once again. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced 0.5% in EUR terms and 4.5% mom in USD terms in March. The Czech PX Index was the best performer (+7.0% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Greek ASE (+4.8% mom), Polish WIG (+3.7% mom) and Hungarian BUX(+1.3% mom) indices (all in EUR terms). There was a muted performance from the Romanian BET Index (-0.1% mom in EUR terms). The Turkish ISE30 finished in the red again, declining 9.5% mom in EUR terms.
PEO BANK POLSKA KASA OPIEKI SA
JMT JERONIMO MARTINS SGPS S.A.
OPAP GREEK ORGANISATION OF FOOTBALL PROGNOSTICS SA
EXAE HELLENIC EXCHANGES SA
MOL MOL NYRT
CEZ CEZ AS
ACP ASSECO POLAND SA
CDR CD PROJEKT S.A.
OMV OMV AG
PKO PKO BANK POLSKI S.A.
BHW BANK HANDLOWY W WARSZAWIE S.A.
BIMAS BIM BIRLESIK MAGAZALAR A.S.
WIZZ WIZZ AIR HOLDINGS PLC
PZU POWSZECHNY ZAKLAD UBEZPIECZEN SPOLKA AKCYJNA
SPL SANTANDER BANK POLSKA SA
MIL BANK MILLENNIUM SA
BSK ING BANK SLASKI S.A.
BDX BUDIMEX S.A.
LAMDA LAMDA DEVELOPMENT S.A.
GEKTERNA GEK TERNA
MTELEKOM MAGYAR TELEKOM TELECOMMUNICATIONS
KTY GRUPA KETY SA
TPS ORANGE POLSKA S.A.
CAI CA IMMOBILIEN ANLAGEN AG
SAR GR. SARANTIS S.A.
LPP LPP S.A.
CIMSA CIMENTO SANYAI VE TICARET A.S.
CCOLA COCA-COLA ICECEK A.S.
GTC GLOBE TRADE CENTRE S.A.
2310 SAHARA INTERNATIONAL PETROCHEMICAL COMPANY
DOM DOM DEVELOPMENT SA
AEGN AEGEAN AIRLINES SA
ENA ENEA S.A.
BFT BENEFIT SYSTEMS S.A. ALLOTMENT
MGROS MIGROS TICARET A.S
PGE PGE POLSKA GRUPA ENERGETYCZNA S.A.
TKNSA TEKNOSA IC VE DIS TICARET AS
PGSUS.E PEGASUS HAVA TASIMACILIGI AS
APR AUTO PARTNER SA
TPEIR PIRAEUS BANK SA
ALPHA ALPHA BANK AE
PPC PUBLIC POWER CORPORATION S.A.
OTP OTP BANK NYRT
CAR INTER CARS S.A.
FROTO FORD OTOMOTIV SANAYI A.S.
THYAO TURK HAVA YOLLARI A.O.
ECH ECHO INVESTMENT
CPS CYFROWY POLSAT SA
MBR MO-BRUK S.A.
GPW WARSAW STOCK EXCHANGE
11B 11 BIT STUDIOS S.A.
TPE TAURON POLSKA ENERGIA S.A.
ALR ALIOR BANK SA
VGO VIGO SYSTEM SA
WPL WIRTUALNA POLSKA HOLDING SA
TLV BANCA TRANSILVANIA S.A.
H4L1 HALYK SAVINGS BANK OF KAZAKHSTAN GDR
SNP PETROM S.A.
TOFAS TOFAS TURK OTOMOBIL FABRIKASI A.S.
NBGGY NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE S.A. ADS
BVB S.C. BURSA DE VALORI BUCURESTI S.A.
RICHT RICHTER
M MED LIFE
R22 R22
SOKM SOK MARKETLER TICARET AS
ESLT ELBIT SYSTEMS LTD
KAP NATIONAL ATOMIC COMPANY KAZATOMPROM
TEN TEN SQUARE GAMES
ALG ALLEGRO.EU SA
CZG CESKA ZBROJOVKA GROUP
KSPI KASPI KZ
INPST INPOST S.A.
PCF PCF GROUP SA
4IG 4IG NYRT
IGN1L IGNITIS GRUPE
WPS W.A.G PAYMENT SOLUTIONS PLC
PCO PEPCO GROUP NV
CTPNV KAZMUNAYGAS NC JSC
VRC CTP NV
GPP VERCOM SA
BCG GRUPA PRACUJ DA
KLKIM BALTIC CLASSIFIEDS GROUP PLC
GIG KALEKIM KIMYEVI MADDELER SANAYI VE TICARET AS
AROBS GAMING INNOVATION GROUP
9526 AROBS TRANSILVANIA SOFTWARE SA
SHO JAHEZ INTERNATIONAL CO
7203 SHOPER SA
AQ ELM CO
AIRA AQUILA PART PROD COM
GEV AIR ASTANA JSC
BOCHGR GEVORKYAN A.S.
DSPW BANK OF CYPRUS
DIAG DOOSAN SKODA POWER A.S.
DIAGNOSTYKA SA
- Research Team
WOOD Morning (1 April 2025)
HEADLINES: • Athens Exchange Group: bottom-line miss in 4Q24, on higher costs, but proposed DPS in line with expectations NEUTRAL • AROBS Transilvania Software: publishes its 2025 budget POSITIVE • MedLife: publishes its 2025 budget NEGATIVE • CCC: new financing agreement, extending factoring line POSITIVE • DataWalk: sale to Coöperatieve Rabobank; total contract value reaches PLN 66.1m POSITIVE • Orlen: 2024 consolidated results to be affected by one-offs NEUTRAL • Poland macro: preliminary Mar...
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #64
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at accelerating trends in European corporate earnings relative to those in t
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: PL Banks; ACP PW; INPST NA; KTY PW; HSBK LI; TITC GA; GPP ...
HEADLINES: • Polish banks: pricing and believing (PKO BP, Bank Pekao, Santander BP, mBank, ING BSK, Bank Millennium, Alior Bank, Bank Handlowy) • Asseco Poland: 4Q24 review – net profit up 9% yoy, 9% above the consensus POSITIVE • InPost: 4Q24 in line with expectations; FY25E EBITDA growth guidance in the mid-20%s, but a slow start to the year POSITIVE • Kety: solid full 4Q24 results, with EBITDA 12% above preliminaries POSITIVE • Halyk Bank: 4Q24 review and 2025E guidance highlights • Titan Cem...
PEO BANK POLSKA KASA OPIEKI SA
ACP ASSECO POLAND SA
PKO PKO BANK POLSKI S.A.
BHW BANK HANDLOWY W WARSZAWIE S.A.
SPL SANTANDER BANK POLSKA SA
MIL BANK MILLENNIUM SA
BSK ING BANK SLASKI S.A.
CIMSA CIMENTO SANYAI VE TICARET A.S.
BFT BENEFIT SYSTEMS S.A. ALLOTMENT
ALR ALIOR BANK SA
H4L1 HALYK SAVINGS BANK OF KAZAKHSTAN GDR
KSPI KASPI KZ
INPST INPOST S.A.
GPP GRUPA PRACUJ DA
- Research Team
WOOD Morning (26 March 2025)
HEADLINES: • Warsaw Stock Exchange: strong delivery in 4Q24, due mainly to the lower costs booked POSITIVE • CD Projekt: 4Q24 EBIT 7% above our forecast; The Witcher 4 to be released after 2026E NEUTRAL • KazMunayGas: 4Q24 results – below expectations NEGATIVE • Ten Square Games: earnings call takeaways – focus on flagship games’ monetisation improvement in 2Q25E NEUTRAL • Wirtualna Polska: key takeaways from the 4Q24 earnings call NEUTRAL • Eurowag: takeaways from the 2H24 earnings call NEUTRAL...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: WPL PW; ALR PW; TEN PW; WPS LN; PL Retail; CEZ CP; PL Macr...
HEADLINES: • Wirtualna Polska: 4Q24 results review – adjusted EBITDA up 17% yoy, 8% above the consensus POSITIVE • Alior Bank: 2027E targets – PLN 2.6bn of net profit; ROE above 18%; payout ratio above 50% POSITIVE • Ten Square Games: mixed newsflow – solid 4Q24 adjusted EBITDA, strong dividend recommendation, but disappointing trading update POSITIVE • Eurowag: 2H24 operating results in line, special dividend announced NEUTRAL • Polish retail: Zabka's 4Q24 below the consensus NEGATIVE • CEZ: up...
- Clement Genelot
Jeronimo Martins: Polish recovery may take a bit longer
Post-FY 2024, we have cut our FY 2025 estimates to reflect a lengthier LfL and profitability recovery in Poland and maintained our EUR21 PT. However, we do not see any fundamental red flag that would put our recent Buy investment case at risk. We continue to foresee a gradual path to renewed LfL gr
- Jerôme Bodin
- Jerôme Bodin
- Juan Ros-Padilla
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: PL Banks; SIPCHEM AB; TL Macro; KAP LI; JMT PL; ALR PW; PC...
HEADLINES: • Polish banks: first politician to suggest additional military tax for the banks NEGATIVE • Sipchem: preliminary 4Q24 results, net profit down, on maintenance NEGATIVE • Türkiye macro: CBRT tightens policy with surprise corridor hike • Kazatomprom: 4Q24 results – well above the market’s estimates POSITIVE • Jeronimo Martins: key takeaways from the 4Q24 call NEGATIVE • Alior Bank: CEO Żabski’s interview with Puls Biznesu, ahead of strategic update (due on 25 March) • Sipchem: to mothb...
- Christophe-Raphaël Ganet
- Konrad Zomer
TKA THYSSENKRUPP AG
MT ARCELORMITTAL SA
JMT JERONIMO MARTINS SGPS S.A.
BEKB BEKAERT SA
AAL ANGLO AMERICAN PLC
APAML APERAM SA
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
OUT1V OUTOKUMPU OYJ
SSAB A SSAB AB CLASS A
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
SW SODEXO SA
SZG SALZGITTER AG
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
WKL WOLTERS KLUWER NV
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
VOE VOESTALPINE AG
ACX ACERINOX SA
RWE RWE AG
AIR AIRBUS SE
VER VERBUND AG CLASS A
ERA ERAMET SA
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
NDA AURUBIS AG
NEM NEMETSCHEK SE
ARCAD ARCADIS NV
AMG AMG ADVANCED METALLURGICAL GROUP N.V.
MONC MONCLER SPA
BC BRUNELLO CUCINELLI S.P.A.
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
HLAG HAPAG-LLOYD AG
RIO RIO TINTO PLC
BHP BHP GROUP LTD
AMAG AMAG AUSTRIA METALL AG
CVC CVC CAPITAL PARTNERS PLC
- Juan Ros-Padilla
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: BFT PW; JMT PL; OPAP GA; TPE PW; TL Macro; ALE PW; INPST N...
HEADLINES: • Benefit Systems: pumping iron (stays BUY) • Jeronimo Martins: small beat in 4Q24, Biedronka margin erosion slows down; tough market environment continues in 2025 POSITIVE • OPAP: the beat goes on, in 4Q24 POSITIVE • Tauron: preliminary 4Q24 EBITDA 45% above our estimate, on strong Generation and Distribution, and lower loss in Supply POSITIVE • Türkiye macro: assessment of recent political events • Allegro vs. InPost: our take on the companies' two calls • cyber_Folks / Shoper: key ...
- Clement Genelot
Jeronimo Martins: WCR-driven FCF miss; improved outlook
While FY 2024 EBITDA slightly beat expectations, the massive EUR300m miss on WCR and consequently on FCF is raising question about the structural/one-off aspect of this miss. When trying to interpret Jeronimo Martins' usual qualitative outlook, we feel that the wording has shifted from deflation, m
- Lukasz Wachelko
- CFA
- Maria Mickiewicz
Benefit Systems: pumping iron (stays BUY)
We reiterate our BUY on Benefit Systems (BFT). Our new 12-month price target (PT) of PLN 4,300 (from PLN 3,400) offers a strong 47% potential upside. We maintain our view of sound growth prospects for Poland, with a 3Y adjusted EBIT CAGR of 11%. The four established foreign markets could add c.100k cards annually in the coming three years, on our estimates, vs. 110-130k for Poland. We forecast a 3Y adjusted EBIT CAGR of 29% for the four markets, although 2025E may remain under pressure from the ...
- Jakub Caithaml
WOOD Flash – Wizz Air: to start daily Budapest-Mumbai flights
Wizz Air may start flying to India this year. Our feedback suggests that this long-anticipated move has been quite controversial among the buy-side. If it works out, it could up open access to a huge and fast-growing aviation market, with significant long-term potential. However, there are substantial execution risks, and we have heard that many believe that management should not divert attention away from its core business, which has been experiencing significant headwinds in recent years.
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