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Hilde Van Boxstael ... (+7)
  • Hilde Van Boxstael
  • Jacob Mekhael
  • Kristof Samoy
  • Michiel Declercq
  • Sharad Kumar S.P
  • Wim Hoste
  • Wim Lewi
Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: RO Oil & Gas; AKCNS TI; EME Macro/Strategy – Dividends; HU...

HEADLINES: • Romanian oil & gas: just have a little patience (OMV Petrom stays BUY, Romgaz downgraded to HOLD – transfer of coverage) • Akcansa: recovery on the horizon (stays BUY) • EME Macro/Strategy: dividends in EMEA – if growth is in doubt, opt for payout • Huuuge Games: 3Q24 broadly in line with our expectations, slightly above the consensus NEUTRAL • Colt CZ Group SE: 3Q24 results – slow quarter; FY24E guidance confirmed NEUTRAL • Türkiye macro: CBT signals a dovish turn • Cyfrowy Polsat:...

Bram Buring ... (+3)
  • Bram Buring
  • CFA
  • Jonathan Lamb

Romanian Oil & Gas: just have a little patience (OMV Petrom stays BUY,...

To be the owners of the biggest gas project in the EU, at a time when the former biggest supplier is threatening, once again, to cut supply off, is perhaps an enviable situation to be in, in our view. The contracts have been signed, construction has begun, and the drilling rig has arrived. However, we still need to wait until 2027E for completion, and the partners are boosting their capital expenditure to record levels. While the future is being constructed, the past continues to fade, with both...

Hilde Van Boxstael ... (+5)
  • Hilde Van Boxstael
  • Michiel Declercq
  • Sharad Kumar S.P
  • Thomas Vranken
  • Wim Lewi
Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: AEGN GA; GTC PW; AQ RO; GEV CP; HSBK LI; BFT PW; MOH GA; K...

HEADLINES: • Aegean Airlines: high net cash position and strong FCFF yield (upgraded to BUY) • GTC: buys German residential portfolio worth EUR 448m • Aquila Part Prod Com S.A.: gross margin and wage costs weigh on the 3Q24 results NEUTRAL • GEVORKYAN: 3Q24 broadly in line with our expectations; new signed contracts for defence and high-tech industries NEUTRAL • Halyk Bank: 3Q24 highlights – solid, on the back of better-than-expected NIM • Benefit Systems: 3Q24 call takeaways – strong long-term ...

Bram Buring ... (+2)
  • Bram Buring
  • CFA

WOOD Flash – Aquila Part Prod Com S.A.: gross margin and wage costs we...

Aquila has delivered solid top-line growth in 3Q24, with revenues up 23% yoy and +20% for 9M24. Parmafood and Romtech contributed RON 122m to the top line in 9M24; excluding this, we calculate that the organic growth was c.13% yoy for the first nine months and c.11% in 3Q24. This quarter, the sales growth came primarily from the organised channel, which affected the gross margin negatively in the quarter. This, combined with higher wage costs, which grew by 32% yoy – driven by two subsequent hik...

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: BFT PW; PBK RO; CAR PW; FTSHP CP; AEGN GA; SFG RO; CBF PW;...

HEADLINES: • Benefit Systems: 3Q24 in line with our forecasts; solid trading update; 2025E outlook and 2025-27E strategy POSITIVE • Patria Bank: strong 3Q24 results POSITIVE • Inter Cars: 3Q24 EBITDA 1-4% below our and the market's expectations NEUTRAL • Footshop (NOT RATED): solid 3Q24; 2024E guidance boosted POSITIVE • Aegean Airlines: 3Q24 – flat RASK, CASKX up 14%; 27% lower EBIT, on 4% lower ASK (in line) NEUTRAL • Sphera Group: 3Q24 post-results webcast takeaways POSITIVE • cyber_Folks: ke...

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: 11B PW; SFG RO; AEGN GA; ELPE GA; HTO GA; SNG RO; MTELEKOM...

HEADLINES: • 11 bit studios: 3Q24 surprises slightly positively, but ytd Frostpunk 2 sales disappoint NEGATIVE • Sphera Group: small beat in 3Q24 – new Cioccolatitaliani franchise signed for Italy POSITIVE • Aegean Airlines: 3Q24 – flat RASK, CASKX up 14%; 27% lower EBIT, on 4% lower ASK (in line) NEUTRAL • HELLENiQ Energy: 3Q24 results and interim dividend NEUTRAL • OTE: 3Q24 results review – soft quarter, with flat yoy adjusted EBITDA, in line with expectations NEUTRAL • Romgaz: 3Q24 results N...

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: EAT PW; EUR PW; CBF PW; MBR PW; ALE PW; VRC PW; TEN PW; PK...

HEADLINES: • AmRest: 3Q24 in line, on a EUR 9m positive one-off NEGATIVE • Eurocash: 3Q24 weak, as expected; FY25E guidance cancelled NEGATIVE • cyber_Folks: 3Q24 results review – 26% yoy adjusted EBITDA growth, 2% above our estimate POSITIVE • Mo-BRUK: 3Q24 EBITDA up 26% yoy, 22-28% above our and the market's expectations POSITIVE • Allegro: 3Q24 EBITDA beat, but yoy decline guided for 4Q24E, due to international operations NEUTRAL • Vercom: 3Q24 results - 28% yoy EBITDA growth, in line with ou...

Martin Marandon-Carlhian ... (+3)
  • Martin Marandon-Carlhian
  • Stephane Houri
  • Steven Boumans

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 11/13/2024

We maintain our Outperform rating on CaixaBank, one of our Top Picks in the sector, with a higher target of € 7.2 vs € 6.7 and ahead of the CMD on 19 November. We are lifting our net income estimates by 7% for 2025-2026, to 7% above the consensus. The strategic update is set to highlight the wisdom of the business model diversification (long-term savings) to address the current transition phase on rates. Despite a solid market performance, the profile does not look to be fully reflec...

Martin Marandon-Carlhian ... (+3)
  • Martin Marandon-Carlhian
  • Stephane Houri
  • Steven Boumans

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 13/11/2024

Nous réitérons notre opinion Surperformance sur CaixaBank, l’un de nos top picks du secteur, avec un OC porté à 7.2 € vs 6.7 € et en amont du CMD du 19/11. Nous relevons nos anticipations de RN de 7% sur 2025/2026 qui ressortent 7% supérieures au consensus. L’update stratégique devrait mettre en avant la pertinence de la diversification du business model (épargne LT) face à la transition actuelle sur les taux. Malgré un solide parcours boursier, cela n’est pas pleinement reflété dans ...

Florent Laroche-Joubert ... (+3)
  • Florent Laroche-Joubert
  • Roy Külter
  • Steven Boumans

ODDO : Spain: the PSOE and SUMAR looking to abolish the SOCIMI regime

>PSOE and Sumar spring a surprise in seeking to suddenly abolish the SOCIMI regime - On Monday 11 November, the PSOE reached a tax agreement with its Spanish government ally, “Sumar”, whereby the two parties want to abolish the SOCIMI REIT regime or at least part of its tax advantages. This sudden stance, which surprised Spanish property professionals, is thus different from the position that was presented just last week, namely to “encourage the construction of affor...

Florent Laroche-Joubert ... (+3)
  • Florent Laroche-Joubert
  • Roy Külter
  • Steven Boumans

ODDO : Espagne : le PSOE et SUMAR souhaiteraient abolir le régime SOCI...

>PSOE et Sumar créent la surprise en voulant supprimer soudainement le régime SOCIMI - Ce lundi 11 novembre, le PSOE sont parvenus à un accord fiscal avec son allié au gouvernement espagnol, « Sumar », par lequel les deux partis veulent supprimer le régime SOCIMI ou au moins une partie de ses avantages fiscaux. Cette prise de position soudaine qui a crée la surprise auprès des professionnels de l’immobilier espagnol, diffère ainsi de la position qui était encore mise ...

Francesca Ferragina
  • Francesca Ferragina

CTP/ABB set to accelerate investments and growth/BUY

We confirm our positive stance on CTP on the back of strong operational performance. We liked the recent ABB and the implied investment acceleration that is to come over the next 12 months, whether on third party acquisitions or on developments. With this note we update our estimates to reflect the recent results and the additional fresh equity raised. Our €19 Target Price is confirmed.

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: OTP HB; CCC PW; DNP PW; INPST NA; MOL HB; WIZZ LN; EUROB G...

HEADLINES: • OTP Bank: solid 3Q24 results, in line with our forecasts; future share price performance depends on growth guidance and/or capital distribution NEUTRAL • CCC: historically-best quarterly EBITDA 9% above our expectations, due to opex control POSITIVE • Dino Polska: 4-8% EBITDA beats in 3Q24, EBITDA back on the rise POSITIVE • InPost: 3Q24 in line with expectations; FY24E guidance upgrade POSITIVE • MOL: 3Q24 results – EBITDA in line with our and the consensus estimates NEUTRAL • Wizz...

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: PEO PW; PKO PW; WIZZ LN; BVB RO; TBCG LN; CTPNV NA; AIRA L...

HEADLINES: • Bank Pekao: posts strong 3Q24; one of the cheapest among the Polish banks, but remains hostage to merger risk • PKO BP: 3Q24 results – no major surprises • Wizz Air: 2Q FY25 – small miss, with better fuel, but higher ex-fuel cask than we expected NEUTRAL • Bucharest Stock Exchange: weak 3Q24 results NEGATIVE • TBC Bank: 3Q24 results and conference call POSITIVE • CTP: 3Q24 in line; development-led growth continues NEUTRAL • Air Astana Group: 3Q24 EBITDA up by 10% yoy, exceeding the ...

Jakub Caithaml
  • Jakub Caithaml

WOOD Flash – CTP: 3Q24 in line; development-led growth continues

CTP reached FFO of EUR 0.60/share in 9M24, and management reiterated its FY target of EUR 0.80-0.82/share. Developing at around a 10% yield on cost continues to generate substantial value for shareholders, as we estimate the cost of debt funding at around 4% currently. At 44.9%, the LTV is still among the higher levels in Europe, but falling rates should ease the risk of further yield expansion stretching the leverage.

Olfa Taamallah ... (+3)
  • Olfa Taamallah
  • Thomas Zlowodzki
  • Yan Derocles

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 11/06/2024

Our baseline scenario materialised last night: Donald Trump seems to be on course to win the US presidential election, and the choice of the electorate is unlikely to be challenged. He could end up with a majority in both houses of Congress. US equities will be the first to benefit from this development. In European equities, the biggest winners will be Energy, Media, Metals, Construction & Materials, Financial Services and Insurance. More at risk, however, are the Utilities, Spirits,...

Roy Külter ... (+3)
  • Roy Külter
  • Steven Boumans
  • Thomas Zlowodzki
DHL DHL GROUP
AKE ARKEMA ... (+25)

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 11/06/2024

Our baseline scenario materialised last night: Donald Trump seems to be on course to win the US presidential election, and the choice of the electorate is unlikely to be challenged. He could end up with a majority in both houses of Congress. US equities will be the first to benefit from this development. In European equities, the biggest winners will be Energy, Media, Metals, Construction & Materials, Financial Services and Insurance. More at risk, however, are the Utilities, Spirits,...

Roy Külter ... (+3)
  • Roy Külter
  • Steven Boumans
  • Thomas Zlowodzki
DHL DHL GROUP
AKE ARKEMA ... (+25)

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 06/11/2024

Notre scénario central s’est concrétisé dans la nuit : Donald Trump remporte la présidentielle américaine, et le choix des électeurs ne devrait pas être contesté. Il pourrait disposer d’une majorité dans les deux assemblées. Les actions américaines en seront les premières bénéficiaires. Sur les actions européennes, les secteurs les plus gagnants seront l’Energie, les Médias, les Métaux, Construction & Materials, Financial Services, Insurance. Sont en revanche plus à risque Utilities, ...

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