HEADLINES: • European Oil and Gas Monthly: February 2026 – trouble brewing in Hormuz • EME Macro/Strategy: Hungary – the Tisza policy programme • cyber_Folks: preliminary 4Q25 results review – 72% yoy adjusted EBITDA growth, 2% above our expectations POSITIVE • Shoper: preliminary 4Q25 results review – 14% yoy adjusted EBITDA growth, 3% above our expectations POSITIVE • Vercom: preliminary 4Q25 results review – 25% yoy EBITDA growth, 2% above our expectations POSITIVE • Poland macro: outlook imp...
This morning (4 March), Shoper reported its preliminary 4Q25 results. Sales reached PLN 59.8m (up 8% yoy, in line with our estimate), with adjusted EBITDA of PLN 22.7m (up 14% yoy, 3% above our estimate) and net profit of PLN 13.6m (down 2% yoy, in line with our estimate). We see Shoper’s results as strong and, due to the beat on the EBITDA vs. our numbers (and the weak share price performance last month), we see the outcome as positive. We expect a positive market reaction.
EME Equity Market – February 2026 Muted performance across the region, with the Turkish ISE the best performer. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 0.7% mom in EUR terms and 2.1% mom in USD terms in February. The Turkish ISE was the top performer, adding 5.4% mom in EUR terms; while the Polish WIG and the Romanian BET improved slightly (+0.9% and +0.3% mom, respectively, in EUR terms). The Czech PX and the Greek ASE were the worst performers (-4.9%, and -3.0% mom, respectively, in EUR terms), w...
Profit acceleration in 2026 on mobile strength and self-help – Following an in-line FY25 with EBITDAaL up 2% yoy, mgt has guided for c3% growth in 2026. Momentum rests on two pillars: resilient mobile (pre-to-post migration, “more-for-more” pricing and CPI indexation; we model c+3%) and targeted efficiency across network and customer care, increasingly AI-enabled, alongside flat energy costs and personnel savings. By contrast, retail fixed is likely to stay subdued; we cap growth at c1%, as comp...
Profit acceleration in 2026 on mobile strength and self-help – Following an in-line FY25 with EBITDAaL up 2% yoy, mgt has guided for c3% growth in 2026. Momentum rests on two pillars: resilient mobile (pre-to-post migration, “more-for-more” pricing and CPI indexation; we model c+3%) and targeted efficiency across network and customer care, increasingly AI-enabled, alongside flat energy costs and personnel savings. By contrast, retail fixed is likely to stay subdued; we cap growth at c1%, as comp...
HEADLINES: • Aselsan: master of multi-domain warfare (stays BUY) • EMEA airlines: attack on Iran disrupts global aviation • Rainbow Tours: flattish yoy January sales growth at both the consolidated (+2.6% yoy) and stand-alone (+1.6% yoy) levels NEGATIVE • Huuuge Games: February 2026 Sensor Tower bookings estimate flat mom NEUTRAL • Ten Square Games: February 2026 Sensor Tower bookings estimate up 33% mom POSITIVE • Auto Partner: 4Q25E preview – 7% yoy EBITDA deterioration expected (due on 15 Apr...
CTP shares took a beating after the FY25 results as the consensus probably expected a higher completion number and the capitalisation of interests clouds the outlook comparability. We actually like both trends. Firstly, there is no point for more completions and speculative investments in CEE as it would destroy value for all logistic developers in the market. Capitalising interest also make sense as it increases the comparability with the pure REITS, but EPRA accounting still overlooks the larg...
HEADLINES: • AmRest: 4Q25 miss, due mainly to allegations about food safety in Czechia NEGATIVE • Kruk: 4Q25 results – bit of a mixed bag • Text: 3Q25-26 (calendar 4Q25) results – EBITDA down 25% yoy, 3% above the consensus NEUTRAL • Enea: impairments and higher provisions to reduce 2025 net income by PLN 1.37bn and EBITDA by PLN 162m NEUTRAL • CTP: 4Q25 results and conference call • Richter: 4Q25 beat, on gross margin and tight opex control POSITIVE • Duna House: 4Q25 in line, guidance implies ...
The 4Q25 results and the 2026E guidance imply around 3-4% consensus FFO downgrades for 2026E, and feature a material gap between the EPRA earnings (at EUR 336m) and the company-adjusted EPRA earnings (at EUR 405m). That said, CTP announced that it will start to capitalise the interest costs related to developments. As a result, the consensus FFO estimates are likely to be reviewed upwards instead.
OTE has reported a solid set of 4Q25 results, with its Greek sales up 9% yoy, to EUR 916m (6% above our forecast) and its Greek adjusted EBITDA up 2% yoy, to EUR 366m (in line with our estimate). The fixed-line segment recorded sales growth of 10.2% yoy, to EUR 536m (driven by an ICT sales hike of 57.8% yoy and a 2.6% increase yoy in retail sales, despite the 5.0% yoy drop in wholesale sales), while the mobile segment increased by 3.4% yoy, to EUR 340.5m, as the 5.2% increase in retail sales (dr...
OTE has reported a solid set of results (very good at the revenue level due to low margin ERF revenues, but EBITDAaL in-line) and given some good EBITDAaL guidance for FY26. We recently downgraded to Neutral due to the PPC FTTH overbuilder risk
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