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Egor Fedorov ... (+2)
  • Egor Fedorov
  • James Wilson

EM Credit Spark/EM credit weekly

After some relief for markets on the data front this week, a period of quiet in terms of macro news should offer a further window for new supply to come from EM issuers ahead of an expected summer lull. Spread levels remain well anchored and EM credit should continue to see robust demand from yield-seeking investors.

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: CGEO LN; ELPE GA; GPW PW; BOCH CY; ALPHA GA; EUROB GA; BFT...

HEADLINES: • Georgia Capital: announces two new buyback programmes POSITIVE • HELLENiQ Energy: 1Q24 results – mildly above expectations POSITIVE • Warsaw Stock Exchange: bottom-line miss and further margin compression in the 1Q24 results NEGATIVE • Bank of Cyprus: 1Q24 highlights POSITIVE • Alpha Services and Holdings: 1Q24 highlights – trading-related beat, but NIM and fees evolve better than expected • Eurobank Ergasias Services: 1Q24 highlights – helped by trading income, but good quarter ove...

Miguel Dias
  • Miguel Dias

WOOD Flash – Banca Transilvania: NIM resilience and strong loan book e...

Overall, we see the bank’s 1Q24 results as positive. Despite the core pre-provision profit coming in largely in line with our expectations, we view the resilience of the NIM and the strong loan book expansion as constructive. The bargain gain was a positive surprise and, together with the very low COR, provided most of the c.27% bottom-line beat vs. our expectations.

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: BFT PW; MTELEKOM HB; PBK RO; GEV CP; MBR PW; DAT PW; IGN1L...

HEADLINES: • Benefit Systems: strong 1Q24, but May card base estimate disappoints POSITIVE • Magyar Telekom: 1Q24E results review – EBITDA up 46% yoy, 6% above the consensus; 2024E guidance upgraded POSITIVE • Patria Bank: strong bottom-line print in 1Q24, but loan book development remains absent POSITIVE • GEVORKYAN: 1Q24 EBITDA up 24% yoy, 17% above our estimate POSITIVE • Mo-BRUK: 1Q24 EBITDA 5% above our forecast, 6% miss vs. the consensus NEUTRAL • DataWalk: 1Q24 numbers fully in line with ...

Jerôme Bodin ... (+2)
  • Jerôme Bodin
  • Thomas Zlowodzki

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 05/15/2024 Date Performance sin...

With 71% of the companies in the Stoxx 600 having released their Q1 2024 results, the picture at this stage is encouraging, with 58% of positive surprises on results. Materials and financials were the sectors that delivered the most positive surprises. If the Q4 2023 earnings season put an end to a downward revision of EPS, the Q1 2024 earnings season has triggered the start of an upward EPS revision, more markedly in the US than in Europe. In terms of sectors, re-rating effects conti...

Jerôme Bodin ... (+2)
  • Jerôme Bodin
  • Thomas Zlowodzki

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 15/05/2024 Date Performance dep...

Alors que 71% des sociétés du Stoxx 600 ont publié, le bilan est à ce stade positif avec 58% de surprises positives sur les résultats. Matériaux et Financières sont les secteurs ayant apporté le plus de surprises positives. Le consensus – qui avait stoppé sa baisse durant les publications T4-23, est désormais reparti à la hausse, plus nettement aux Etats-Unis qu’en Europe. Sectoriellement, les effets de rerating ont continué de dominer les révisions de BPA. - ...

Stefano Toffano ... (+2)
  • Stefano Toffano
  • Wim Gille

InPost : Continuing to deliver

>Another good set of results - InPost published yet another good set of results, with good progress on almost all KPIs. Group parcel volumes grew +22.1% yoy (ccs and AAOBe +21.8%), which, combined with continued benefits from the repricing of contracts, pushed group revenues up +21.5% yoy (+25.6% excl. FX, ccs +22.3%). InPost was able to continue to generate operating leverage, expanding the group’s adj. EBITDA margin by +3.4ppt yoy to 31.3% (ccs 30.1%, AAOBe 31.2%). ...

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: INPST NA; GSPARK HB; SFG RO; H2O RO; DIGI RO; AROBS RO; PG...

HEADLINES: • InPost: strong 1Q24, as expected; FY24E guidance maintained; slight volume deceleration in 2Q24 so far POSITIVE • Graphisoft Park: 1Q24 – occupancy and results stable so far; guidance maintained POSITIVE • Sphera Group: 1Q24 above our expectations POSITIVE • Hidroelectrica: 1Q24 – lower power prices offset by no tax on producers NEGATIVE • DIGI Communications: 1Q24 results – adjusted EBITDA up 22% yoy, 6% above our estimate POSITIVE • AROBS Transilvania Software: weak 1Q24 results, ...

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: CEZ CP; EUR PW; BIMAS TI; RICHT HB; ARABIAND AB; CE4/GR Ma...

HEADLINES: • CEZ: 1Q24 – strong beat on supply and generation POSITIVE • Eurocash: weak 1Q24 across the board NEGATIVE • BIM: 4Q23 results – strong beat POSITIVE • Richter: 1Q24 operations in line, net beat on FX revaluation NEUTRAL • Arabian Drilling: 1Q24 interim results – net income below expectations NEUTRAL • CE4/Greece macro: the consumption recovery – pivoting from necessities to discretionary • Türkiye macro: our takes from our Symposium; a focus on Coca-Cola Icecek, Tupras, and Aselsan ...

Alessio Chiesa ... (+3)
  • Alessio Chiesa
  • Atinc Ozkan
  • Can Yurtcan

WOOD Flash – Türkiye macro: our takes from our Symposium; a focus on C...

Last week, WOOD held its second annual symposium in Istanbul (hosting the C-level management of 12 BIST-listed bluechips), which was highly appreciated by both investors and corporates. Overall, sentiment was consistent with our recent pre-elections trip report (followed by our report concerning the elections). The transition towards a more orthodox macroeconomic framework appears both credible and convincing, in terms of the measures implemented, in our view. In the paragraphs below, we focus o...

Clement Genelot
  • Clement Genelot

Food Retail: Navigating stormy waters of deflation and price war

As food deflation risks increasingly diverge from one market to another, we take a fresh look at local price war risks and at the sector earnings cycle. We remain puzzled by the YTD sector derating and underperformance while FY 2024-25 expected EPS growth is still strong. Many investors seem to be

Mihaly Gajda
  • Mihaly Gajda

MOL slightly missed market consensus in Q1 2024.

Key Message Group-level clean CCS EBITDA totalled USD 718 mn in Q1 2024, falling 3% shortof market consensus and 5% below Concorde estimates. While the consumerservices segment delivered a positive surprise, the Petrochemical segment underperformed expectations. We anticipate that these results may slightly disappoint investors. However, thecompany is set to pay a HUF 250 dividend, offering an 8% yield, which is exceptional among Hungarian blue-chips. The ex-dividend date is scheduled for May2...

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: TLV RO; ADNOCDRI UH; OTKAR TI; TBCG LN; ELM AB; ISCTR TI; ...

HEADLINES: • Banca Transilvania: NIM resilience and strong loan book expansion the key positives of 1Q24 bottom-line beat, on non-recurring revenue, low provisions and a one-off POSITIVE • ADNOC Drilling: 1Q24 results – new venture and updated dividend policy POSITIVE • Otokar: lacklustre 1Q24 results, but strong backlog NEGATIVE • TBC Bank: 1Q24 results and conference call NEUTRAL • Elm: mixed 1Q24 financial results NEGATIVE • Isbank: 1Q24 highlights – margin pressure worsening • Polish banks: ...

Bram Buring ... (+2)
  • Bram Buring
  • CFA

WOOD Flash – Aquila Part Prod Com S.A.: 1Q24 affected by timing of Eas...

Aquila has reported, at first glance, a soft set of 1Q24 numbers, but they were affected negatively yoy by several factors. The first is the timing of Easter, which fell into the 1Q numbers last year, but which will be seen mainly in 2Q24E this year. Aquila, we note, has a large portfolio of confectionaries, which make Easter an important holiday for the business. The second is that it has reassessed its Gradena portfolio, eliminating a number of SKUs, which will be replaced only in the coming q...

Marine Leleux ... (+3)
  • Marine Leleux
  • Maureen Schuller
  • Suvi Platerink Kosonen

Bank Brunch/BBVA makes a public offer for Sabadell, RBI abandons STRAB...

Instead of backing down BBVA comes with a tender offer for Banco Sabadell, lots of uncertainty regarding a success priced in spreads. RBI abandons the STRABAG deal, may pave way for AT1 issuance

Research Team
  • Research Team
BRE MBANK SA
MOL MOL NYRT ... (+15)

WOOD Daily: MBK PW; OTP HB; MIL PW; CCC PW; DNP PW; EAT PW; MOL HB; M ...

HEADLINES: • mBank: solid 1Q24 results justify one of the top market valuations (1Q24 P/BV of 2.1x) POSITIVE • OTP Bank: books solid 1Q24, keeps 2024E guidance unchanged NEUTRAL • Bank Millennium: 1Q24 results in line • CCC: 40% EBITDA beat in 1Q24, on opex control POSITIVE • Dino: 2-7% EBITDA miss in 1Q24 NEGATIVE • AmRest: 1Q24 broadly in line with our forecasts, but below the consensus NEGATIVE • MOL: 1Q24 results – EBITDA below expectations on maintenance NEUTRAL • MedLife: 1Q24 results poin...

Egor Fedorov ... (+4)
  • Egor Fedorov
  • James Wilson
  • Oleksiy Soroka
  • CFA

EM Credit Spark/EM credit weekly

Some signs of cooling economic data out of the US, and the start of DM rate-cutting cycles has offered some optimism for EM assets, with the grind tighter in credit spreads continuing as seen for much of this year. We expect the benign environment to offer further opportunities for new issuance, while spread levels look fairly tight.

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: PKO PW; KRU PW; BHW PW; NLBR SV; PGSUS TI; ADNOCDIS UH; CT...

HEADLINES: • PKO BP: strong 1Q24, with 9% beat, but big part due to lower quarterly tax charge POSITIVE • Kruk: 1Q24 results in line with earlier communication; strong trend continues, but digested by the market already NEUTRAL • Bank Handlowy: books neutral 1Q24, questions on future capital management NEUTRAL • NLB Group: guidance upgrade spices up vanilla 1Q24 bottom-line beat POSITIVE • Pegasus Airlines: 1Q24 in line, guidance for mild margin compression and 10-12% ASK growth maintained NEUTR...

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: BDX PW; EU Oil & Gas Monthly; BHW PW; PKO PW; MIL PW; CAR ...

HEADLINES: • Budimex: 1Q24 EBIT 13% above our forecast on solid gross margin, but broadly in line with the consensus POSITIVE • European oil and gas monthly: April 2024 – margins retreating • Bank Handlowy: to pay PLN 10/share dividend NEUTRAL • PKO BP: estimates cost of credit holidays extension at PLN 489m NEUTRAL • Bank Millennium: expects a PLN 201-247m impact from the 2024E credit holidays extension for PLN mortgagors NEUTRAL • Inter Cars: April sales recover by 19.5% yoy POSITIVE • MOL: 1Q...

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