Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Ncc (Buy, TP: SEK150.00) - Q1 in line with our expectations

Q1 is low season for NCC, but we believe the EBIT miss versus Infront consensus was likely due to some consensus participants overlooking the early Easter effect. With the Q1 results broadly in line with our estimates, we have made only minor forecast changes, and reiterate our BUY and SEK150 target price.

Miss in seasonally slow quarter

If it's too good to be true, it usually is

Salmon prices higher on another blow to '24e supply, but farmers struggling to reap the benefits due to weak biology. Valuation not demanding, but more mixed triggers short term.

Valuation remains attractive

Q1e EBIT of EUR 201m, as pre-announced. '24e EBIT down 8% on weak biology and soft US prices. Sector top-pick at '24e-25e P/E of 13x-11x (5Y-avg. 16x).

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Are the Lows "In" for this Pullback? While we are not yet out of the woods, we continue to see evidence that suggests the lows may be "in" for this pullback. Last week (4/23/24 Compass) we discussed the possibility that further downside was limited on the S&P 500 due to a multitude of reasons (SPX had simply filled 2/22/24 gap support that we had been discussing since late-February, Russell 2000 and Equal-Weighted S&P 500 were holding above key supports, short-term oversold conditions, subdued ...

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Norsk Hydro (Sell, TP: NOK50.00) - Q1 slightly on the soft side

Q1 EBITDA was c2% below consensus, with a somewhat soft mix, as Extrusions and Aluminium Metal, the two largest segments, were below forecasts. We have increased our 2024e EPS by 7% on the USD2,600/t spot aluminium price, and 2025–2026e by 2% on the Q1 results. We are 30% below consensus 2025e EBITDA; we do not see enough demand to raise aluminium prices above the marginal producer’s cost, as the price appreciation in recent weeks suggests. We still expect aluminium prices to decline with lower ...

Demand growing faster than supply - BUY

Q1'24 EBITDA of NOK 5.4bn, '24e-'26e EBIT up 2-3% post report. Market tightening rapidly in Q1 - demand up 5%, supply up 3%. Reiterate BUY — TP NOK 75.

EBITDA 2% below on higher cost

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Mowi (Buy, TP: NOK235.00) - Q1 EBIT miss, but worst looks over

Mowi reported Q1 operating EBIT of EUR201m, versus our estimate of EUR234m and consensus of EUR230m, which had been lowered from ~EUR270m a few months ago. Profit warnings from peers and available market data suggested fish downgrades in Norway would be an issue, but were actually more than we expected. However, the worst seems over, and while we have cut our Q1–Q2e earnings from Norway, and 2024e EPS by 3.3%, we reiterate our BUY and NOK235 target price.

Renovation rules now a reality

The Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) was approved on 12 April, requiring the modernisation of existing real estate in the EU, and will soon enter the Official Journal of the EU. Member states will have two years to incorporate the provisions into their national legislation. While Q1 is Nordic construction’s low season due to winter effects, we see some downside risk to Q1e consensus and longer-term to 2024–2026e EBIT on lower development gains. We recommend a stock-picking approa...

Ncc (Buy, TP: SEK150.00) - Q1 was cold

With a harsh Nordic winter and Easter falling in Q1, we expect a larger seasonal loss than consensus (results due at c07:00 CET on 3 May). We expect NCC to record one commercial property divestment of SEK530m, but due the level of announced orders, we have reduced our 2024–2026e revenue and EPS and expect Q1 order intake below Infront consensus. We reiterate our BUY and NOK150 target price.

Peab (Sell, TP: SEK58.00) - Consensus too bullish, too soon

With solid announced orders in Q1, we expect order intake above consensus, but EBIT below due to the cold Nordic winter and early Easter (results due 6 May (time TBA)). We also believe consensus is too bullish on the speed of Property Development’s recovery. We find the recent share price rally an overreaction and have downgraded to SELL (HOLD), with a raised target price of SEK58 (52), reflecting our updated estimates and peer valuation.

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