EME Equity Market – November 2022 Market performance – Turkey does it again, breezing past everyone else, once more, in November. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced 11.6% mom in EUR terms and 16.7% mom in USD. The ISE30 index, again, boasted the best performance among our coverage, adding 18.6% mom in EUR terms and 23.9% mom in local currency (lcl) terms. Positive performances were also recorded in the WIG (+14.0% EU /13.0% lcl mom), the BUX (+12.6% EUR/12.0% lcl mom), the BET (+8.4% EUR/8.6% lcl...
HEADLINES: • Saudi Arabian tech: from oil to data and beyond (initiating on Solutions by STC with a BUY, and Jahez with a HOLD) • Motor Oil Hellas: motoring beyond oil (stays BUY) • Kofola: 3Q22 conference call takeaways NEUTRAL • Photon Energy: increases stake in Lerta, plans to take full control by the year-end • PKO BP: Puls Biznesu on potential changes in management board NEGATIVE • Shoper: key takeaways from the PAP interview with the CEO on the 2023E outlook NEUTRAL • Alrosa: Mir mine p...
EME Equity Market – October 2022 Market performance – in a positive month across the board, Turkey outperforms yet again. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced by 12.7% mom in EUR terms and 14.4% mom in USD. The ISE30 was, once again, the best-performing index in our coverage, adding 23.4% mom in EUR terms and 25.2% in local currency terms. All the other indices recorded positive performances as well, with the WIG (+14.8% EUR / 11.5% lcl), the BUX (+11.4% EUR / 8.5% lcl) and the ASE (+10.3% EUR) del...
HEADLINES: • LPP: 2Q22 above expectations; FY22E guidance maintained; Russian operations sold for PLN 1.7bn POSITIVE • CD Projekt: follow-up on strategy update - press comments and our 1-on-1 NEUTRAL • STS Group: 3Q NGR growth of 21% yoy POSITIVE • Alior Bank: tops up credit holiday provisions, implies take-up ratio of 69% NEUTRAL • Alrosa: excluded from the latest EU sanctions list NEUTRAL • Zagreb Stock Exchange: share buyback announcement NEUTRAL • Ten Square Games: 3Q22 bookings up by 11% q...
EME Equity Market – September 2022 Market performance – in a rough month for the markets, Turkey emerges as the top-performing region, once again. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined 8.3% mom in EUR terms and 10.7% mom in USD in September; while the ISE index outperformed all the other indices once again, but with a muted performance this time, adding just 1.0% mom in EUR terms and 0.1% in local currency terms. All the other indices recorded negative performances, with the Czech PX Index losing 4....
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: Greece - a positive growth story • Public Power Corporation: 2Q EBITDA +5% yoy, FY22E guidance maintained NEUTRAL • Ten Square Games: management call takeaways NEUTRAL • CD Projekt: Cyberpunk paid expansion next year not for old-generation consoles NEGATIVE • LiveChat Software: patents method of chat communication rating in the US POSITIVE • Wizz Air: Blue Air forced to suspend operations, positive for Wizz Air and Ryanair • Alrosa: key points from the Easter...
AT: Utilities - Austrian government announces electricity price caps for households (negative) Oil&Gas - Oil price: G7 is getting serious about a price ceiling on Russian oil RO:Banca Transilvania - Banca Transilvania takes a loan of EUR 25 mn from the EBRD to support lending to businesses (neutral)
AT: Andritz - Andritz acquried Bonetti group (neutral) AT: Andritz - Andritz to supply fiberline and lime kiln equipment to Sun Paper, China (neutral) AT: UBM - UBM sells project and construction management subsidiary Alba (neutral) AT: Wienerberger - Strong Q2 results trigger FY EBITDA guidance upgrade (positive) AT: Zumtobel - Better than expected Q4 results despite higher warranty costs, FY 21/22 guidance beat, implied FY 22/23 EBIT range in line with RBIe (positive) CZ: CEZ - CEZ...
HEADLINES: • LiveChat Software: 4Q21-22 (calendar 1Q22) results - EBITDA up 10% yoy, 8% below our estimates NEGATIVE • PCF Group: Outriders Worldslayer released, initial Steam reviews disappoint NEGATIVE • Nuclearelectrica: calls GMS to approve EUR 185m financing for EnergoNuclear NEGATIVE • OMV Petrom: the government adopts the Ordinance reducing fuel prices by RON 0.5/litre • Romgaz: transaction with Exxon to be completed at end-July 2022 NEUTRAL • Gazprom: AGM fails to approve its 2021 divid...
AT: Lenzing - Minimum dividend as of FY 23 raised to EUR 4.50 (positive) RO: Digi Communications - A joint venture between Digi and Citymesh won spectrum to operate in Belgium for EUR 114 mn (positive) RO: Medlife - Medlife consolidates its position in the West part of the country (positive) RO: OMV Petrom - The Supervisory Board approved the proposed special dividend and share capital increase (neutral) RU: Gazprom - Additional MET payments of RUB 416 bn could reduce 2022e DPS by RUB ...
EME Equity Market – May 2022 Market performance – markets down mostly, as MSCI EM Europe Index declines 3.6%. The MSCI EM Europe Index fell 3.6% mom and 2.0% mom in EUR and USD terms, respectively, in May. The best-performing index was the Russian MOEX, which added 6.3% mom in EUR terms, but declined 3.7% mom in local currency. However, we note that, with the CBR ban on short selling and restrictions on international investors, as well various sanctions, this performance is not fully comparable ...
AT: IMMOFINANZ - CPI offer deadline to end on May 30, instead of May 28 (neutral) AT: Telekom Austria - Acquisition of Bulgarian ICT market leader (positive) AT: Verbund - Verbund announced special dividend of EUR 1.15 on top of 22e payout (neutral) HU - Introduction of windfall profit taxes esp. hitting the financial and energy sector (negative) PL: CCC - Q1 22/23 conference call stressed an increasing interest in lower priced products (neutral) RU: Gazprom - BoD recommends record high dividend...
HEADLINES: • Cognor Holding: record results could serve as re-rating trigger (BUY - initiation of coverage) • Hungary macro: taxes and budget consolidation • Alpha Bank: strong 1Q22 numbers, with upside risk for FY22E estimates POSITIVE • Kernel: 3Q22 EBITDA materially below our estimates, amid weak farming segment result NEGATIVE • Aegean Airlines: 1Q22 - small beat, fare levels exceed expectations, summer outlook encouraging POSITIVE • Public Power Corporation: 1Q22 earnings in line, still ...
MSCI May Index Review - Standard indices (STD) changes: DEL: Raiffeisen Bank Intl.; SmallCap indices (SC) changes: ADD: STRABAG SE, DEL: Zumtobel AT: AGRANA - Final FY 21/22 results match preliminary figures, FY 22/23e guidance confirmed (neutral) AT: AT&S - AT&S proposed dividend of EUR 0.90/share for 2021/22e (neutral) AT: Oesterreichische Post - Final Q1 22 numbers in line with prliminary figures, outlook reiterated (neutral) AT: Palfinger - Takeover of remaining 35% stake in French...
AT: Addiko Bank - Q1 22 profit slightly ahead of market expectations, CET 1 deterioration (neutral) AT: Wienerberger - Share buyback programme extended (positive) PL: mBank - Q1 22 net profit >30% ahead of consensus and RBI on robust set of results (positive) PL: PGNiG - The Board proposed not to distribute any dividends for 2021 (neutral) RO: Banca Transilvania, BRD-GSG - National Bank of Romania raises key interest rate by 75 bps to 375 bps (positive) RU: Gazprom - Ukraine halts t...
EME Equity Market – April 2022 Market performance – regional benchmarks performance rather mixed in April. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 5.3% in EUR terms and by 9.9% in USD. The best-performing market was Turkey, whose equities gained 13.3% in EUR terms and 9.2% in local currency. Russia’s MOEX Index added 9.0% in EUR terms, but declined by 9.6% in local currency. In Greece, the ASE Index advanced by 4.9% in EUR terms, the last to end the month in the black; while Romania’s BET Index rec...
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: Russia can live (but not thrive) without EU gas payments • Erste Bank: strong start to 2022 with the 1Q22 delivery POSITIVE • Kruk: publishes detailed 1Q22 - solid trends, but supported by positive revaluations, as suspected NEUTRAL • Tekfen Holding: 1Q22 results - another major miss NEGATIVE • Turkcell: 1Q22 results in line, except a 10% NI miss; FY22E guidance maintained NEUTRAL • Enerjisa Enerji: 1Q22 results review - mixed, but FY guidance revised up NEUTRA...
AT: EVN - Cutoff of Russian gas delivieries only minor on Bulgarian electricity generation, potential regional price effect though (neutral) AT: IMMOFINANZ - FY 22 guidance withdrawn due to bond repurchase (negative) AT: Telekom Austria - Robust trends trigger earnings beat, guidance confirmed (positive) AT: Warimpex - FY 21 significantly ahead of expectations (positive) PL: Alior Bank - Q1 22 net profit missed expectations on one-offs and weaker NII / pessimistic costs outlook in 2022...
AT: Andritz - Andritz received paper machine upgrade order from the Netherlands (neutral) PL: Banks - PFR head sees 5.5%-6% new rte equilibrium (neutral) RU: Gazprom - EC sees gas payments in RUB may be possible (positive) RU: Petropavlovsk - Weaker qoq Q1 22 trading update likely mispriced by the market (negative) SI: NLB/Addiko - Change of the political climate in Slovenia after yesterday's parliamentary elections (negative)
HEADLINES: • Russian commodities: the long and short side of it • Arcelik: 1Q22 results - as expected NEUTRAL • Turkish banks: number of changes by the CBT • Ten Square Games: management recommends PLN 10 DPS from the 2021 net profit POSITIVE • Kety: management recommends PLN 52.4 DPS (8% dividend yield) from the 2021 profit NEUTRAL • Norilsk Nickel: final 2021 dividend yield at 5.9%, ADR holders may not receive payment • Alrosa: Russian rough diamonds stop flowing to main Indian manufacturi...
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