EME Equity Market – February 2024 Market performance – a positive February, with the Polish WIG20 outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 4.2% mom in EUR terms and 3.7% mom in USD in February. The Polish WIG20 saw the strongest performance, adding 6.4% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Greek ASE (+4.2% mom), the Turkish ISE30 (+4.0% mom) and the Romanian BET (+2.6% mom) (all in EUR terms). There was a relatively muted performance in Hungary (+0.6% mom in EUR terms) and a decline in the Cze...
• Bank Handlowy: 2023 results imply a generous dividend yield, but reveal a weak growth profile • Isbank: 4Q23 highlights and guidance • Tofas: strong beat in the 4Q23 results • Romania macro: MPC on hold, with easing cycle in sight • Fondul Proprietatea: shareholders approve the buy-back and sale of the stake in Engie • TeraPlast: takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings call • Verbund: proposes a special DPS of EUR 0.75 on top of the regular DPS of EUR 3.4 • Solutions by STC: 4Q23E results preview (du...
EME Equity Market – November 2023 Market performance – Greeks in the lead, in a month with only green across the region. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 5.6% mom in EUR terms and 8.7% mom in USD in November. The Greek ASE Index was the top performer in our region (+6.9% mom), followed by the Polish WIG20 (+5.5% mom) and the Hungarian BUX (+4.0% mom). The Czech PX Index saw the most muted performance, advancing 2.8% mom.
HEADLINES: • Wizz Air: go big, or go home (stays BUY) • Isbank: 3Q23 - NIM and earnings quality weaker than its peers • Solutions by STC: key takeaways from the 3Q23 conference call NEUTRAL • BRD-GSG: 9M23 results conference call takeaways NEUTRAL • Poland macro: President Duda gives Morawiecki first mandate • OMV: forms geothermal JV with Wien Energie • Hidroelectrica: Supervisory Board appoints new management NEUTRAL • Banca Transilvania: might be in pole position for OTP Romania acquisi...
EME Equity Market – August 2023 Market performance – Turkey the top performer in August, once again. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 0.7% mom in EUR terms and 2.2% mom in USD in August. Turkey, yet again, outperformed its peers, with the ISE30 gaining 9.4% mom in EUR terms. The Hungarian BUX index saw a solid performance in August, adding 6.1% mom in EUR terms, while the Romanian BET had a lacklustre month, barely making any gains (0.1% mom in EUR terms). Elsewhere, the index performances were neg...
HEADLINES: • Cyfrowy Polsat: costly diversified business (stays HOLD) • LiveChat Software: 1Q23-24 results - EBITDA up 26% yoy, in line with our estimates and consensus NEUTRAL • Asseco Poland: key takeaways from the 2Q23 earnings call NEUTRAL • Ten Square Games: launches online webstore, enabling new forms of in-game purchases NEUTRAL • MedLife: 2Q23 was an inflection point for margins POSITIVE • DIGI Communications: concludes national roaming agreement in Belgium NEUTRAL • Purcari Wineries: ...
We anticipate that the relaxation of the regulatory framework and a return to more conventional policies will positively impact the banking sector. TL commercial loan/deposit spreads (front book), which had plummeted to as low as -18% by the end of June, have reached 6.6%, thanks to the removal of a cap on lending rates and lower deposit rates. Taking these favourable developments and strong 2Q23 results into account, we are raising our aggregate FY23 NI estimate for the sector by 10%. We now fo...
HEADLINES: • Isbank: 2Q23 highlights - subsidiary profits boom • Coca-Cola Icecek: 2Q23 - better than expected results POSITIVE • Brisa: 2Q23 EBITDA margin up to 22%, volumes fall 8% yoy on exports • Romania macro: NBR holds the policy rate unchanged • Lamda Development: rundown of key value drivers (highlights from the CMD) POSITIVE • Asseco Poland: 2Q23 preliminary net profit reaches PLN 120m, 3% above the consensus POSITIVE • CEZ: State reportedly seeking to acquire gas network operators N...
It was a fairly constructive week for EM credit, with spreads modestly tighter and returns positive. The focus for markets has now shifted to the June Fed meeting, with the potential for a ‘skip' that could ease rates volatility and offer some opportunity for EM HY spreads to tighten further.
EME Equity Market – May 2023 Market performance – in its election month and with talks of a return to investment grade starting to materialise, Greece outperformed, posting a stellar performance. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 2.3% mom in EUR terms, but lost 1.4% mom in USD in May. The Greek ASE Index saw the biggest gains (+12.3% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Hungarian BUX Index (+6.2% mom in EUR terms) and the Turkish ISE 30 Index (+3.4% mom in EUR terms). The remaining geographies finis...
HEADLINES: • Turkey strategy: Turkish gambit - May 2023 elections • OTP Bank: books very strong start to 2023E, with 1Q23E implying 20%+ ROE POSITIVE • Graphisoft Park: 1Q23 - good quarter, FFO yield in high teens POSITIVE • Dogus Otomotiv: 1Q23 results - strong beat POSITIVE • Logo Yazilim: 1Q23 results - in line, except for one-off quake tax hit on NI NEUTRAL • SOK Marketler Ticaret: higher-than-expected bottom line in 1Q23 POSITIVE • Isbank: 1Q23 highlights - showing similar trends, but go...
EM credit spreads have held up relatively well amid the recent back-up in UST yields, with the index spread still slightly tighter YTD. We expect some pressure for spread widening in the near term, especially if issuance from lower-rated sovereigns picks up.
EME Equity Market – November 2022 Market performance – Turkey does it again, breezing past everyone else, once more, in November. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced 11.6% mom in EUR terms and 16.7% mom in USD. The ISE30 index, again, boasted the best performance among our coverage, adding 18.6% mom in EUR terms and 23.9% mom in local currency (lcl) terms. Positive performances were also recorded in the WIG (+14.0% EU /13.0% lcl mom), the BUX (+12.6% EUR/12.0% lcl mom), the BET (+8.4% EUR/8.6% lcl...
HEADLINES: • Hungary macro: a deep downturn in the making for next year • mBank: 3Q22 - massive loss, as expected, but underlying earnings stronger than expected at the peak POSITIVE • Isbank: 3Q22 highlights - no surprises, cost control still a problem • Richter: strong 3Q on OCs, Russia/CIS and FX revaluation POSITIVE • Petkim: 3Q22 results - EBITDA weaker than expected • InPost: DHL announces launching parcel machines in Poland NEGATIVE • Erste Bank: announces planned purchase of Sberbank'...
Net income in line with estimates: Isbank reported bank-only net income of TL15.0bn (+3% q/q, +401% y/y) in 3Q22 (bank-only RoE: 44.3%), in line with both our estimate (TL14.8bn) and the consensus forecast (TL15.0bn). Opex was lower than our estimates, though this was offset by higher loan loss provisions. As such, net income in 9M22 reached TL38.0bn (43.4% RoE), equating to a 439% y/y growth. We raised our FY22 NI estimate to TL55.1bn from TL54.9bn and our FY23 NI estimate to TL59.6bn from TL4...
EME Equity Market – October 2022 Market performance – in a positive month across the board, Turkey outperforms yet again. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced by 12.7% mom in EUR terms and 14.4% mom in USD. The ISE30 was, once again, the best-performing index in our coverage, adding 23.4% mom in EUR terms and 25.2% in local currency terms. All the other indices recorded positive performances as well, with the WIG (+14.8% EUR / 11.5% lcl), the BUX (+11.4% EUR / 8.5% lcl) and the ASE (+10.3% EUR) del...
HEADLINES: • Turkish banks: shifting sands (Akbank, Garanti Bank, Isbank and Yapi Kredi downgraded to SELL) • Krka: integrated model underpins steady returns (BUY) • Bank Millennium: books a PLN 1bn net loss in 3Q22, but underlying profitability at peak levels NEUTRAL • Arcelik: 3Q22 results - bottom line misses expectations NEUTRAL • Turkish banks: banking watchdog tightens requirements on Lira borrowers • CCC: new share issue extended by institutional investors POSITIVE • Cyfrowy Polsat: to...
We have downgraded all the Turkish banks under our coverage to SELL. We believe the valuations need to be cheaper to justify the remaining tail risk that comes with this backdrop. Earnings visibility is low due to hyperinflation and shifting regulatory ground, but it is high enough to realise that the underlying ROEs will not be anywhere near the cost of capital once the dust settles. In our view, depressed multiples are not an anomaly unless the cost of capital normalises and the banks get a br...
EME Equity Market – August 2022 Market performance – Turkey the biggest winner, in a predominantly bad month. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined 1.2% mom in EUR and 2.8% mom in USD terms. Turkey’s ISE index outperformed all other indices, adding 24.9% mom in EUR terms and 25.1% in local currency terms. Hungary’s benchmark, the BUX Index, added 1.1% mom and 0.2% mom in EUR and HUF terms, respectively. Greece’s ASE Index had a muted performance and added only 0.6% mom. All the other indices across ...
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