China's biotechnology sector has entered an accelerated growth phase, with firms expanding their innovative commercial product portfolios, achieving significant outlicensing deals and enjoying unexpected profitability. With an unprecedented showing of 74 oral presentations at ASCO 2025, the sector highlighted its robust pipeline and expanding role in global innovation. Sustained policy support and globalisation efforts will further support this expansion. Upgrade to OVERWEIGHT with Innovent, Han...
GREATER CHINA Sector Healthcare Entering a new phase of accelerated growth. Upgrade to OVERWEIGHT. Internet 618 Festival – Evolving consumer trends and continued focus on value for money. Small/Mid Cap Highlights JBM Healthcare (2161 HK/BUY/HK$2.85/Target: HK$3.31) Takeaways from luncheon. INDONESIA Update Kalbe Farma (KL...
Drug innovators beat consensus with strong 2024/1Q25 results. Biopharma is set to outperform in 2025 with robust innovative pipelines and effective globalisation strategies. Internet healthcare players will maintain solid revenue growth and improve profitability in 2025/FY26. Medical devices and leading hospital players should recover steadily in 2025, while ICL and TCM companies may face continued policy uncertainties. Geopolitical risks remain a threat to CRDMO majors. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT.
Beating market estimates, WuXi AppTec’s total revenue and adjusted earnings expanded by 21.0% yoy and 40.0% yoy respectively in 1Q25. Amid significant external uncertainties, WuXi AppTec is maintaining its revenue growth target of 10-15% yoy for continuing operations and strives to achieve highly efficient production and operations in 2025. Maintain HOLD, with a higher target price of HK$70.00 to reflect the improving net margins.
Most domestic biopharmaceutical companies expect the US-China trade tensions to have limited impact in the short term, while the long-term impact remains uncertain. We prefer drug innovators focusing on domestic operations and internet healthcare players. The out-licensing business model is unlikely impacted by the trade tensions, while CRDMO players could face considerable geopolitical risks. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Our top picks are Innovent, Hansoh Pharma, Ali Health and PAGD.
Despite a considerably challenging business environment, WuXi AppTec’s total revenue and adjusted net profit edged down 2.7% yoy and 2.5% yoy respectively. The results are satisfactory. The company saw strong backlog growth of 47% yoy in 2024, and expects continued operations to achieve accelerated revenue growth of 10-15% yoy in 2025. Additionally, we expect margin improvements to drive a robust earnings CAGR of 12.6% in 2024-27. Maintain BUY with a higher target price of HK$90.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results China Resources Beer (291 HK/BUY/HK$28.50/Target: HK$39.90) 2024 results missed forecasts. However, CR Beer’s ytd performance and management’s tone for 2025 seem positive. With the ongoing consumption recovery, especially in the restaurant channel, a potentially better peak season, a much heathier inventory level and innovative products and partnerships, management expects a single-digit beer volume growth in 2025, with profit expanding much faster than revenue. Dividend...
Biopharmaceutical companies are embracing the new year with new product approvals and out-licensing deals, while leading CRDMO companies are divesting their overseas businesses. We expect the biopharmaceutical segment to continue recovering, supported by a lower capital cost and constant innovative product launches in China and overseas. The considerable geopolitical risks, however, may continue to cloud the CRDMO segment’s growth outlook. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT.
Geopolitical tensions and weak economic conditions may cloud 2025’s growth outlook of the CRDMO, medical devices and services segments. However, the biopharma segment will see continued recovery, supported by a lower cost of capital and constant innovative product launches in China and even overseas. Leading internet healthcare players, with stabilising business models, also expect robust revenue growth and improving profitability. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
WuXi AppTec’s reported 9M24 revenue and adjusted net profit declined 6.2% yoy and 10.1% yoy respectively. The results are in line with our estimates. The company sees strong backlog growth of 35.2% yoy in 9M24, and maintains its revenue guidance of Rmb38.3b-40.5b for 2024. We remain cautious on the company’s long-term growth outlook given its significant exposure to geopolitical risks. Maintain SELL and target price of HK$40.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Initiate Coverage VSTECS Holdings (856 HK/BUY/HK$4.46/Target: HK$5.47) VSTECS is the eighth-largest IT distributor globally with an established presence in SEA and China. We forecast a three-year net profit CAGR of 9.2% in 2024-26, fuelled by the rising adoption of AI, refresh cycles for consumer electronics and diversifying cloud services. We like VSTECS’ operating efficiency and cash conversion. We expect a dividend yield of 4.4%/5.1% in 2024-25 on solid cash flow generation...
We expect the continuous interest rate cuts to lower R&D costs and accelerate innovative product launches for biopharmaceutical producers. This will support a continuous recovery of the healthcare industry for the next few years. Moreover, the highly-expected fiscal easing package may also be a potential catalyst for medical service and medical equipment players. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on China’s healthcare sector.
Most biopharmaceutical companies under our coverage posted robust 1H24 results, while others reported moderate growth or missed market estimates. We believe leading drug innovators will outperform, supported by continued new product launches, while weak economic conditions and policy uncertainties may continue to cloud the growth outlook for medical service providers and medical device players. Geopolitical risks remain a threat to CDMO majors. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
WuXi AppTec’s reported 1H24 revenue and adjusted net profit declined 8.6% yoy and 14.2% yoy respectively. The results are lower than our estimates. The company saw strong backlog growth of 33% yoy in 1H24, and maintains its revenue guidance of Rmb38.3b-40.5b for 2024. However, we are concerned that the potential legislation of a US draft bill could led to a significant decrease in the number of new projects in the next few years. Maintain SELL and target price of HK$22.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results WuXi AppTec (2359 HK/SELL/HK$29.85/Target: HK$22.00) WuXi AppTec’s reported 1H24 revenue and adjusted net profit declined 8.6% yoy and 14.2% yoy respectively. The results are lower than our estimates. The company saw strong backlog growth of 33% yoy in 1H24, and maintains its revenue guidance of Rmb38.3b-40.5b for 2024. However, we are concerned that the potential legislation of a US draft bill could led to a significant decrease in the number of new projects in the ne...
Chinese CRDMO companies still face tremendous challenges in 2H24. Our industry check indicates that domestic CRDMO players are striving to survive in the cold winter via streamlining of their organisations and continued cost control. Moreover, the recent progress of the Biosecure Act further weakens the growth prospects for WuXi Bio and WuXi AppTec. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on China’s healthcare sector.
Novo Nordisk’s Semaglutide and Eli Lilly’s Tirzepatide are expected to obtain market approval for obesity treatment in China in 2024. Targeting both T2D and obesity indications, domestic players are racing in the development of GLP-1 RA innovative drugs and Semaglutide biosimilars. China’s GLP-1 market competition will stiffen soon. With the early mover advantage, superior efficacy and safety profile of Mazdutile, Innovent will stand out from the crowd. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on China’s healthca...
WuXi AppTec’s reported 1Q24 revenue and adjusted net profit declined by 11.0% yoy and 18.3% yoy respectively. The results are lower than our estimates. The draft Bill brings considerable business uncertainty for the company and has led to a decrease in new projects. Thus far, the overall business has remained relatively stable. Management maintains its revenue guidance of Rmb38.3b-40.5b for 2024. Maintain SELL and target price of HK$28.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics PMI Manufacturing PMI came in better than expected at 50.4% (-0.4ppt) and stayed in the expansionary zone for the second month. It was mainly supported by production and new orders as employment remained a drag, dropping 0.1ppt to 48.0%. Non-manufacturing hit a three-month low of 51.2%, dragged by moderation in new orders and business expectations. We expect policy support to continue and the July Politburo may see new measures being rolled out. Sector Aviation T...
WuXi AppTec’s reported 2023 revenue and adjusted net profit grew 2.5% yoy and 15.5% yoy respectively. The results are slightly lower than our estimates. As the Draft Bill may bring considerable uncertainty in service demand, management guided for a modest revenue of Rmb38.3b-40.5b for 2024. We cut our revenue growth estimate from 8.3% to 3.3% CAGR in 2024-26 to reflect its lower growth visibility. Maintain SELL with a lower target price of HK$28.00.
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