We expect BCH’s 2Q23 earnings to improve qoq from distressing 1Q23 results due to a basic capitation rate increase by SSO, a small wave of COVID-19 infections and the recovery of international patients in May-Jun 23. We expect an improvement in 2H23, which is the high season. Margin pressure is expected to persist due to weak performances from new investments, although the market has reflected this concern to a considerable extent. Upgrade to HOLD. Target price: Bt17.30.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Update Bangkok Chain Hospital (BCH TB/HOLD/Bt17.80/Target: Bt17.30) 2Q23 results preview: Modest qoq improvement on SSO rate hike. Plan B Media (PLANB TB/BUY/Bt8.35/Target: Bt9.40) Positive yoy and qoq earnings growth in 2Q23 on robust utilisation rate.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Small-Mid Cap Biweekly: Gold prices denominated in CNY topped out at a year-high level; Beneficiaries: Shandong Gold and Luk Fook. Sector Commodities: Weekly: Awaiting signals from US FOMC and China Politburo meetings. Update Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177 HK/HOLD/HK$3.43/Target: HK$3.70): Expects 1H23 revenue to be flat from 1H22; lowers 2023 revenue growth guidance to single digits. INDONESIA Sector Property: Robust 1H23 pre-sales achievement; shares continue to outperfor...
BCH posted a negative surprise in 1Q23 net profit at almost 20% lower than consensus estimate, with earnings not only normalised to pre-COVID-19 level but below pre- COVID-19 level on margin contraction. Although we expect the margins to improve qoq in the next three quarters, they are foreseen to be low as expenditures rise. Downgrade to SELL. Target price: Bt17.30.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Bangkok Chain Hospital (BCH TB/SELL/Bt18.80/Target: Bt17.30) 1Q23: A shocking earnings surprise to the downside on slumped margins. Downgrade to SELL Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BDMS TB/BUY/Bt29.75/Target: Bt33.00) 1Q23: Earnings hit a new record high on robust revenue and margins. Upgrade to BUY. Bangkok Expressway and Metro (BEM TB/HOLD/Bt9.05/Target: Bt9.80) 1Q23: Earnings beat on lower-than-expected expenditure. GFPT (GFPT TB/BUY/Bt11.20/Target: Bt13.20) 1Q2...
GREATER CHINA Economics Inflation: Headline inflation lower; core holds steady. Money Supply: Liquidity remains ample, but households delevered. Sector Automobile: Weekly: April car sales beat; further recovery in the first week of May. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Top BUYs: BYD, Li Auto and CATL. Internet: Cloud industry development facilitated by recent AIGC breakthrough. Results JD.com (9618 HK/BUY/HK$135.00/Target: HK$216.00): 1Q23: Earnings beat; soft 2Q23 top-line growth. INDONESIA Sector Proper...
BCH’s 1Q23 earnings are expected to be relatively flat from the absence of significant catalysts, despite there being fewer one-off items than in 4Q22. We are mildly optimistic going into 2Q-4Q23 as there will be an increase in basic capitation rate by SSO and continuous growth from BCH’s existing hospitals. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt24.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Banking 1Q23 results wrap-up: Results beat on investment gains; selective BUY on banks that are still laggards. Results Delta Electronics (DELTA TB/SELL/Bt888.00/Target: Bt660.00) 1Q23: Earnings missed our expectations; weak outlook not over yet. Update Bangkok Chain Hospital (BCH TB/BUY/Bt21.70/Target: Bt24.00) Expect 1Q23 net profit to be flat; positive earnings outlook for 2023.
GREATER CHINA Results China Longyuan Power (916 HK/BUY/HK$8.31/Target: HK$11.50): 1Q23: In line; wind farm utilisation hours up 3.8% yoy. COLI (688 HK/BUY/HK$19.66/Target: HK$27.14): 1Q23: Profitability improves, but with weak land investment. COSCO SHIPPING Ports (1199 HK/BUY/HK$4.89/Target: HK$7.07): 1Q23: In line; 1Q23 likely the trough. Expect improving profitability ahead. EVE Energy (300014 HK/BUY/Rmb66.79/Target: Rmb100.00): 1Q23: Results miss on revenue and beat on margins. Maintain BUY....
BCH adopted a slightly optimistic tone at the analyst meeting with several sources of post-COVID-19-peak growth. The company rolled out a long-term business plan emphasising expansions towards new strategic areas, including the EEC. While BCH’s 2023 earnings are foreseen to drop yoy from a high base, there are a number of catalysts while the valuation is below peers’. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt22.00.
GREATER CHINA Results KE Holdings Inc (2423 HK/BUY/HK$45.75/Target: HK$66.00): 4Q22: Strong earnings beat; encouraging outlook for 2023. Ping An Insurance Group (2318 HK/BUY/HK$50.50/Target: HK$67.50): 2022: Results below expectations; expect 1Q23 NBV to turn positive. INDONESIA Results Semen Indonesia (SMGR IJ/BUY/Rp6,000/Target: Rp9,200): 4Q22: Net profit down on weak sales volume, below expectations. MALAYSIA Results Top Glove (TOPG MK/BUY/RM0.84/Target: RM0.95): 2QFY23: Results miss; upgra...
BCH reported disappointing 4Q22 earnings from a few extraordinary items related to COVID-19 and lower-than-expected gross margin due to rising expenditure. We expect BCH to see a better performance in 1Q23 despite being under some pressure from high expenses. The valuation remains undemanding. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt22.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Bangkok Chain Hospital (BCH TB/BUY/Bt19.70/Target: Bt22.00) 4Q22: Results miss from one-off items and rising expenses. Electricity Generating (EGCO TB/BUY/Bt171.00/Target: Bt220.00) 4Q22: Results disappoint, but bottoming out. Update CP ALL (CPALL TB/BUY/Bt61.00/Target: Bt78.00) Resilient long-term growth outlook.
GREATER CHINA Economics PMI: Activities gain momentum after festive season. Strategy Alpha Picks: March Conviction Calls: We expect higher volatility in March, adding Zhongsheng Group to our SELL list. New BUY ideas include Anhui Conch, CM Bank, Desay SV, Fenjiu, and Sunny Optical. INDONESIA Results Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ/SELL/Rp36,975/Target: Rp30,000): 4Q22: NPAT falls 29.3% qoq and ASP declines. Triputra Agro Persada (TAPG IJ/BUY/Rp675 /Target: Rp1,125): 2022: Results within expecta...
We expect BCH’s 4Q22 earnings to decline yoy and qoq, normalising from a high base due to fading of COVID-19-related items but with a few positive gains. While 1H23 earnings are still foreseen to drop yoy, we see two catalysts from the provision of COVID-19-related services to Chinese visitors and the upcoming basic income increase by SSO. Furthermore, the valuation remains attractive among peers. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt23.80.
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile: Weekly: January auto down 40% mom, supportive policies in the cards. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Top picks: CATL, Desay SV, FYG and Xusheng. Shipping and Port: Global trade is likely to see a muted 1Q23, followed by a meaningful recovery in 2Q23. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT; CSP (1199 HK/BUY/Target: HK$7.79) is our top pick. Update Kuaishou (1024 HK/BUY/HK$70.85/Target: HK$95.00): 4Q22 e-commerce growth well on track; ad recovery to re-accelerate in 2023. INDONESIA Strateg...
BCH posted a 3Q22 net loss of Bt403m from the recognition of losses related to Moderna vaccines as expected by the street. 3Q22 core profit largely subsided based on falling contributions from COVID-19-related items. We expect BCH to return to profitability following the easing of the long-lasting concern over and benefit from the highly likely capitation rate increase by SSO. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt21.20.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Bangchak Corporation PCL (BCP TB/HOLD/Bt33.00/Target: Bt37.00) 3Q22 Results: Strong results outstanding its peers Bangkok Chain Hospital (BCH TB/BUY/Bt18.80/Target: Bt21.20) 3Q22: Loss on vaccines as expected. Berli Jucker (BJC TB/HOLD/Bt34.50/Target: Bt38.50) 3Q22: Potential downward revision of 2023 consensus earnings estimates. Ngern Tid Lor (TIDLOR TB/BUY/Bt25.75/Target: Bt37.00) 3Q22: Results slightly below expectation. PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC TB/HOLD/Bt46.25...
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