Danske Bank (Buy, TP: DKK235.00) - Distributions slow, but approaching

Helped by low loan losses and modest cost inflation, Danske Bank reported a Q1 ROE of 12.9%. Noting one less interest day, NII fell 0.7% QOQ adjusted for reported one-offs. While down ~30bp QOQ following the buyback programme announced in February, the bank’s CET1 ratio remains strong at 18.5% versus its >16% target. We have trimmed our target price to DKK235 (237), but with the stock trading at a 2025e P/E of ~6.9x, we find the valuation attractive and reiterate our BUY.

Trimming our capital distribution

PTP beat due to fees & better than expected asset quality. We raise '24e-'26e adj. EPS by 1-3% on fees muted by NII & SBB. Guidance reiteration on share buyback a disappointment. HOLD.

Danske Bank AS: 2 directors

Two Directors at Danske Bank AS sold/bought 70,384 shares at between 193.810DKK and 203.220DKK. The significance rating of the trade was 100/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors ...

Unchanged guidance - loan losses better

PTP +2% vs. cons +7% vs ABG & cons, on lower loan losses. Unchanged guidance at DKK 20-22bn as well as share buybacks. Est.rev for 2024: limited as cons is in line; stock sideways

Nordic banks – statistical update – Swedish bankruptcies April 2024

The total number of bankruptcies was up 65% y-o-y and up 16% m-o-m in April 2024. Corporate bankruptcies were up 81% y-o-y and up 16% m-o-m in April 2024.

A good start to the year

Q1 EPS 7% above, but some special elements. Backlog implies revenue estimates are robust. Strong momentum, high expectations - HOLD.

Kongsberg Gruppen (Hold, TP: NOK780.00) - Solid Maritime margin beat i...

Q1 EBITDA beat our estimate and consensus by 9%, explained by a stronger Maritime (KM) margin than expected. However, as previously guided, the Defence (KD) margin did fall to 17% in this quarter. We have edged our 2025–2026e EPS up 2% after primarily raising our KM margin assumptions, but reiterate our HOLD and NOK780 target price as we believe the stock is already pricing in a possible ramp-up of NATO defence spending to at least 2.5% of GDP for all member states.

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Are the Lows "In" for this Pullback? While we are not yet out of the woods, we continue to see evidence that suggests the lows may be "in" for this pullback. Last week (4/23/24 Compass) we discussed the possibility that further downside was limited on the S&P 500 due to a multitude of reasons (SPX had simply filled 2/22/24 gap support that we had been discussing since late-February, Russell 2000 and Equal-Weighted S&P 500 were holding above key supports, short-term oversold conditions, subdued ...

Heads-up for Q1 report, 3 May

Nordic banks – Statistical update - Norwegian lending March 2024

Total lending grew by 3.3% y-o-y (3.4% adjusted for FX effects) and 0.3% m-o-m. Last month, total lending was up 3.3% y-o-y.