A director at China Yongda Automobiles Services Holdings Ltd. bought 600,000 shares at 7.375HKD and the significance rating of the trade was 67/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directo...
CHINA YONGDA AUTOMOBILES SVS. (HK), a company active in the Specialty Retailers industry, now shows a lower overall rating. The independent financial analyst theScreener confirms the fundamental rating of 2 out of 4 stars. However, the market behaviour deterioration triggered a risk requalification, which can be thus described as moderately risky. theScreener believes that increased risk justifies the general evaluation downgrade to Neutral. As of the analysis date March 11, 2022, the closing pr...
OEMs saw earnings rebound in August, by virtue of improved product pricing. The yoy drop in the combined profit growth of sizeable automakers narrowed from 23.2% in 7M19 to 19% in 8M19, implying a 21% mom growth and probably positive yoy growth in August. Product prices generally improved from a trough in June through September, after the clearance of National-V car inventories and debut of National-VI cars. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top pick: DFM, GAC, and Brilliance.
According to dealers, BMW may skip the special rebates for 3Q19, which would benefit Brilliance at the expense of auto dealers with high exposure to BMW, eg Yongda and Zhengtong. Upgrade Brilliance from HOLD to BUY and raise target price by 5% to HK$10.00. Cut 2019 EPS estimates for Yongda, Zhengtong, Meidong and Zhongsheng by 10%/7%/4%//2%. Downgrade Meidong from HOLD to SELL given its stretched valuation after share price rally. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
Yongda yesterday announced its plan to acquire three dealership stores (Porsche, Mercedes-Benz and Lexus) and one service centre (Tesla) at Rmb830m, implying 13x 2018 PE. Taking into account net cash and cost savings after the acquisition, the effective cash outflow for the acquisition would only be Rmb360m, or 7x 2019F PE. 3Q19 earnings risk for Yongda comes from the availability of extra rebates from BMW. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$9.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Strategy Alpha Picks: Greater China October Conviction List No change in strategy; adding PICC P&C to our BUY list. Initiate Coverage Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co (300760 CH/BUY/Rmb184.46/Target: Rmb235.00) Becoming a global medtech giant. Update China Yongda Auto Services Holdings (3669 HK/BUY/HK$6.59/Target: HK$9.00) Acquires a niche dealer of Porsche, Mercedes-Benz and Lexus at attractive valuation. TRADERS’ CORNER Conch Venture (586 HK): Trading Buy...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: Greater China October Conviction List: No change in strategy; adding PICC P&C to our BUY list. Initiate Coverage Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co (300760 CH/BUY/Rmb184.46/Target: Rmb235.00): Becoming a global medtech giant. Update China Yongda Auto Services Holdings (3669 HK/BUY/HK$6.59/Target: HK$9.00): Acquires a niche dealer of Porsche, Mercedes-Benz and Lexus at attractive valuation. INDONESIA Small/Mid Cap Highlights Vale Indonesia (INCO IJ/NO...
PV sales remained weak in the first half of September with retail sales down 16% yoy vs a 17% yoy drop in August. Nevertheless, the prices of auto stocks under our coverage rallied by an average of 9% post 1H19 results as the market expects to see an earnings recovery in 2H19. The valuations have become less attractive after the recent rally, albeit still below the historical means. We prefer defensive names and our top picks are DFM and GAC. SELL BYD and GWM. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
PV demand deteriorated further in August with retail sales down 9% vs -5% in July, worse than we had expected, despite a lower comparison base. That was due to weaker consumer sentiment amid the ongoing US-China trade war. Given the disappointing July-August sales, we expect to see a 4% yoy drop in PV sales in 2H19 and market recovery will probably come by 2020. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top pick: DFM. SELL BYD, GWM and Zhengtong. Downgrade Geely to SELL and Brilliance to HOLD.
1H19 earnings of automobile companies generally beat our estimates but missed consensus forecasts on margins given 2Q19 price cuts. The post-results earnings momentum remains mixed. DFM saw the most upgrade, while BYD, GWM, Zhengtong and Nexteer suffered the most downgrade. Looking ahead, management remains cautious, but has guided a modestly improved outlook for 2H19 after the completion of emission standard transition was completed in July. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top pick: DFM.
Yongda’s net profit growth returned to a positive 17% yoy in 2Q19 on new-car sales margin recovery. In 1H19, net profit grew 1.5% yoy to Rmb734m, beating our estimate and meeting consensus. For 2H19, we expect new-car sales gross margin to recover further with the completion of emission standard transition for luxury brands. Raise 2019-21 EPS by 9%/14%/18%. Maintain BUY. Raise target price from HK$8.00 to HK$9.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results China Communications Services (552 HK/HOLD/HK$4.80/Target: HK$5.15) 1H19: In line; lack of catalysts ahead. China Yongda Auto Services Holdings (3669 HK/BUY/HK$7.06/Target: HK$9.00) 2Q19: Earnings growth turns positive, beating our estimates. Robam Appliances (002508 CH/HOLD/Rmb25.48/Target: Rmb28.00) 1H19: Hurt by property slowdown and destocking. TRADERS’ CORNER Shenzhen Expressway (548 HK): Trading Buy Range China Lesso (2128 HK): Trading Buy Range
GREATER CHINA Results China Communications Services (552 HK/HOLD/HK$4.80/Target: HK$5.15): 1H19: In line; lack of catalysts ahead. China Yongda Auto Services Holdings (3669 HK/BUY/HK$7.06/Target: HK$9.00): 2Q19: Earnings growth turns positive, beating our estimates. Robam Appliances (002508 CH/HOLD/Rmb25.48/Target: Rmb28.00): 1H19: Hurt by property slowdown and destocking. INDONESIA Sector Banking: Slight lending rate cut + higher loan growth = 15-20% EPS growth in 2020. MALAYSIA Results Alli...
China’s PV retail sales and wholesale shipment rebounded strongly in the last three days of July, mainly driven by delayed deliveries of orders booked in June. However, July sales still declined 6% yoy, while inventories piled up again, due to a weaker economy, front-loading effect from deep discounting in June, and lower discount on the newly-launched National VI-cars. We prefer Japanese brand plays and luxury plays given their outperforming sales momentum. Top picks: DFM. Sell GWM.
July PV retail sales and wholesale shipment turned out weaker than expected due to a bigger-than-expected front-loading effect in June and a weaker-than-expected Chinese economy. As such, we cut our 2H19/2019/2020 PV sales growth estimates from +5%/-5%/+5% yoy to +1%/-7%/+3% yoy respectively. Downgrade the auto sector from OVERWEIGHT to MARKET WEIGHT, given fluctuations in auto sales and 17% stock price rally from the trough in May-June till now. Top picks: BUY DFM, SELL GWM.
Retail sales came in weaker than expected in the first half of July as deep discounts on National V-cars pulled forward demand to June. However, wholesale shipments’ yoy decline narrowed significantly. Weakness of retail sales should be temporary and both retail sales and wholesale shipment growth should rebound to positive territory from 3Q19, thanks to a low-base effect and stimulus. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Top pick: GAC, DFM and Geely.
Retail sales growth of passenger vehicles (PV) grew 4.9% yoy in Jun 19, marking the first positive growth in the past 13 months, mainly due to dealers cutting prices to dump National V-car inventories. Luxury brands’ sales growth continued to outperform, while JV brands and Chinese brands also saw significant sequential improvement. We now prefer mass-market plays to luxury plays, given more attractive valuations. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Top picks: GAC, Geely and DFM.
Retail sales growth of passenger vehicles turned positive in Jun 19 (+5.2% yoy), the first time over the past 12 months, as dealers slashed prices to clear old National V-car inventories. Coupled with launches of more National VI cars and stimulus, this will likely trigger a further recovery from 3Q19. We prefer mass-market plays to luxury plays, given their more attractive valuations. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Top picks: GAC, Geely and DFM.
We expect China’s PV sales growth to reverse from -16% in 1H19 to 5% in 2H19-20, driven by: a) completion of emission standard transition from National V to National VI, b) scrapping of National III cars, c) kick-in of stimulus, and d) low base. We prefer mass-market plays to luxury car plays as the stock prices have not factored in the next round of stimulus, implying better risk-reward dynamics. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Top picks: GAC and Geely. Upgrade DFM to BUY.
Average daily retail sales of PVs grew 25% yoy in the second week of June (10-16 June), marking the biggest spike over the last few months, as dealers slashed prices to dump old National V car inventories. The inventory drawdown coupled with the launch of more National VI cars and stimulus will likely trigger a recovery from 3Q19. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Top pick: Zhongsheng.
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