HEADLINES: • Arcelik: weak bottom-line performance in 1Q24 NEGATIVE • Sipchem: 1Q24 results – weak net income NEGATIVE • Kruk: issues flash 1Q24 net profit of PLN 338m NEUTRAL • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (22-28 April) • Türkiye macro: MPC takes a pause, but hiking cycle not over yet • OTP Bank: CEO Csanyi speaks at AGM on future acquisitions and Russian exposure POSITIVE • Budimex: BXF Energia acquires 60 MW photovoltaic project NEUTRAL • Inter Cars: dividend policy for 2023-25E and p...
HEADLINES: • MONETA Money Bank: strong 1Q24 delivery, on better-than- expected revenues POSITIVE • Alior Bank: books small beat on 1Q24 delivery, driven by low credit risk charges; robust 2024E outlook supported POSITIVE • Shoper: 1Q24 adjusted EBITDA 9% above our expectations; FY23 results in line with prelims POSITIVE • Mo-BRUK: 4% miss vs. our 4Q23 adjusted EBITDA forecast, weak cash flows NEGATIVE • Wizz Air: fiscal 2024 post-close trading update POSITIVE • Aselsan: CEO's comments on exports...
• LPP: the glass is half full (stays BUY) • Eurocash: 4Q23 beat on costs, profit warning for 1Q24E • 11 bit studios: 4Q23 adjusted EBITDA beats expectations on a solid top line • Polish banks: 2024 contributions to the BFG • MOL: oil production starts on a new platform at ACG field • Ford Otosan: completes the Eurobond book-building process • Kalekim: 2023 IAS 29 results - strong operating results • Lamda: 4Q23 results - a significant step-up in Ellinikon revenues, revaluation gain on existing m...
HEADLINES: • Middle Eastern Oil Services: we’re going with what’s growing (ADNOC Drilling upgraded to BUY, Arabian Drilling downgraded to HOLD) • Public Power Corporation: 4Q23 earnings review NEUTRAL • Kruk: 1Q24 trading update shows strong recoveries POSITIVE • Budimex: 4Q23 figures in line with the preliminary guidance NEUTRAL • Budimex: management recommends PLN 35.69 DPS (5% dividend yield), above our expectations POSITIVE • Polish utilities: Industry Ministry plans to link mines to coal-fi...
EME Equity Market – March 2024 Market performance – mixed performances in March, with the Romanian BET outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 0.3% mom in EUR terms and 0.4% mom in USD in March. The Romanian BET reported the strongest performance, adding 7.1% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Czech PX and the Polish WIG20 (+4.1% and 1.0% mom, in EUR terms, respectively). Greece saw a relatively muted performance (-0.2% mom in EUR terms), while Hungary (-1.1% mom in EUR terms) and Tür...
HEADLINES: • Polish Banks: not done yet (PKO BP, Bank Pekao, Santander BP, mBank, ING BSK, Bank Millennium, Alior Bank, Bank Handlowy) • Kazatomprom: digging the margins (stays BUY) • Jahez: mixed 2023 financial results NEUTRAL • BRD-GSG: publishes 2024 budget NEUTRAL • Migros: BoD to propose DPS of TRY 6.904 NEUTRAL • Short News (M, BRISA)
We keep our constructive view on the Polish banks. We admit that the upside we see is far less than the share price performance last year (WIG Bank index up 119% in the LTM). However, we cannot ignore the single-digit P/Es (our sector median 2024E P/E at 8.3x), in combination with the falling cost of equity, which is, in part, the result of improved sentiment in the country and improving growth expectations. All this is topped up with generous dividend payments this year. The solid earnings outl...
EME Equity Market – February 2024 Market performance – a positive February, with the Polish WIG20 outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 4.2% mom in EUR terms and 3.7% mom in USD in February. The Polish WIG20 saw the strongest performance, adding 6.4% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Greek ASE (+4.2% mom), the Turkish ISE30 (+4.0% mom) and the Romanian BET (+2.6% mom) (all in EUR terms). There was a relatively muted performance in Hungary (+0.6% mom in EUR terms) and a decline in the Cze...
HEADLINES: • Polish Auto Parts Distribution: sound recurrent growth prospects (Auto Partner downgraded to HOLD; Inter Cars stays BUY) • Kruk: 4Q23/2023 results – solid, but in line NEUTRAL • Alior Bank: books solid 2023, issues positive guidance on 2024E COR, and pays dividend one year earlier than expected POSITIVE • Romgaz: FY23 net profit 12% above profit reported with 2024E budget POSITIVE • Transelectrica: FY23 net result slightly below preliminary reported with 2024 budget NEUTRAL • KazMun...
HEADLINES: • CCC: the boys are back in town (stays BUY) • Bank Pekao: solid 2023 profits, generous PLN 19.2/share dividend, market waiting for AGM date POSITIVE • Orlen: 4Q23 results – CCS EBITDA in line NEUTRAL • Solutions by STC: key takeaways from the 4Q23 conference call NEUTRAL • Alior Bank: potential to pay out up to 50% of its 2023 net profit as a dividend NEUTRAL • PKO BP: PFSA guides for maximum dividend payout • Polish banks: mBank, ING BSK and Santander BP receive dividend letters fro...
HEADLINES: • Pepco Group: 1Q24 revenues close to the consensus, guidance for 2ppts gross margin improvement yoy NEUTRAL • Telecom Egypt: acquires first 5G licence in Egypt NEUTRAL • CEZ: to place bid for GasNet, reportedly NEUTRAL • Komercni Banka: 4Q23E preview (due on 8 February) • ADNOC Drilling: 4Q23E preview (due on 13 February) NEUTRAL • Kruk: 4Q23E preview (due on 27 February, after the market closes) • Alior Bank: 4Q23E preview (due on 28 February) • Short News (TGN)
EME Equity Market – October 2023 Market performance – election results prompt stellar market reaction in Poland; sell-off in Turkey. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 1.7% mom in EUR terms and 2.0% mom in USD in October. Poland staged a massive rebound, post the elections, with the WIG20 advancing 16.4% mom in EUR terms. Apart from Turkey, where October was a sell-off, with the ISE30 declining 13.7% mom in EUR terms, there were relatively muted performances everywhere else (BUX +2.1% / PX +0.4% / B...
HEADLINES: • Benefit Systems: 2024E targets for net additions in sports cards 9-12% above our model assumptions POSITIVE • Fondul Proprietatea: NAV per share at end-September up 1.8% mom NEUTRAL • Wirtualna Polska: Media Development Investment Fund purchases 0.2% stake NEUTRAL • Grupa Pracuj: new online job ads down 18% yoy in September NEGATIVE • Alior Bank: 3Q23E preview (due on 26 October) • Bank Millennium: 3Q23E preview (due on 27 October) • mBank: 3Q23E preview (due on 31 October) • Ass...
The 75bps cut in the reference rate by the NBP yesterday (6 September) came as a surprise, vs. the market’s expectations of a 25bps cut. In this comment, we present our current model assumptions for the Polish banks and the ytd delivery on the NII front. While we have not provided for as deep a rate cut as this in our 2023E forecasts, we highlight that our 2023-25E forecasts provide for a cumulative rate cut to the tune of 250-275bps over the next three years. We expect the benchmark rate to lan...
HEADLINES: • Alior Bank: 2Q23E beat on COR leads to upside potential for 2023E earnings expectations POSITIVE • mBank: solid 2Q23 numbers - amid symbolic net loss, we have positive takeaways • National Bank: 2Q23 highlights - strong NIM, upgrades guidance similar to peers • Logo Yazilim: TeleSystem acquires Logo's local competitor, Mikro NEGATIVE • Dogus Otomotiv: to acquire Group A shares of Dogus REIT NEUTRAL • Cyfrowy Polsat/Wirtualna Polska: CPS audience share at 22.25%, while WP TV at 0....
EME Equity Market – July 2023 Market performance – gains keep on rolling in all geographies, with special mention of Turkey’s stellar performance. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 8.6% mom in EUR terms and 9.5% mom in USD in July. Turkey clearly outperformed its peers, gaining 18.6% mom in EUR terms. Most other geographies performed more or less at similar levels, with the Polish WIG20 in the upper part of the range, advancing 7.3% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Romanian BET and Czech PX indic...
HEADLINES: • Ford Otosan: bright expectations are mostly priced in (downgraded to HOLD) • Pepco Group: lfl eases to 2.6% in 3Q23; FY23E EBITDA guidance maintained NEGATIVE • STS Group: 2Q23 NGR growth of 26% yoy POSITIVE • Bank Millennium: 2Q23E results preview (due on 26 July) • Santander Bank Polska: 2Q23E results preview (due on 26 July) • mBank: 2Q23E results preview (due on 28 July) • Alior Bank: 2Q23E results preview (due on 2 August) • Kruk: 2Q23E results preview (due on 10 August, a...
HEADLINES: • Poland macro: MPC conveys dovish hint • Turkey macro: VAT increases as budget deteriorates • Krka: preliminary 2Q operating earnings in line with FY23E forecasts NEUTRAL • Alior Bank: PZU wants to change Supervisory Board mix • Wirtualna Polska: real users in June 2023 NEUTRAL
The final ruling of the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) on case c-520/21 seems to be fully in line with the initial opinion of an adviser to the CJEU. It has been said that the banks are not entitled to claim the cost of capital reimbursement if FX mortgagors win their cases for credit annulments due to abusive clauses. In cases where the contested mortgage deals are made void by the local courts, lenders cannot claim payments beyond the reimbursements of the loan principal. Consum...
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