reports
- Paula Ruth
Telecommunications – 4Q24: NPAT Down Slightly By 2% yoy
Big Telcos’ 4Q24 EBITDA was roughly stable (-0.2%) qoq, but declined slightly by 4% yoy Meanwhile, combined 4Q24 net profit fell slightly by 2% yoy, but rose 11% qoq. During 4Q24, EXCL slightly increased its market share (based on EBITDA) among the top three telcos. We downgrade the telecommunications sector to MARKET WEIGHT from OVERWEIGHT as we expect TLKM, the parent company of Telkomsel (market leader), to book only a slightly moderate top-line growth of 2% yoy in 2025. Our top pick is ISAT.
- Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Jack Goh Tooan Orng
- Jonathan Koh
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Kampon Akaravarinchai
- Ken Lee
- Ming San Soong
- Paula Ruth
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Sunny Chen
- Thanawat Thangchadakorn
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Friday, April 25, 2025
GREATER CHINA Results Aier Eye Hospital Group (300015 CH/BUY/Rmb12.72/Target: Rmb17.80) 2024: Satisfactory results; expects strong recovery in 2025. Upgrade to BUY. Ningbo Tuopu Group Co (601689 CH/BUY/Rmb50.96/Target: Rmb83.00) 4Q24: Earnings up 38.5% yoy, in line. Maintain BUY with target price unchanged at Rmb83.00. TAL Educational Group (TAL US/BUY/US$9.36/Target: US$14.00) 4QFY25: Earnings miss amid ramped-up investments in AI-powered learning. INDONESIA Sector Telecommun...
IZZ TAL EDUCATION GROUP SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
KKP KIATNAKIN BANK
BBL BANGKOK BANK PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
ISAT INDOSAT
TISCO TISCO FINANCIAL GROUP
300015 AIER EYE HOSPITAL GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
TOWR PT SARANA MENARA NUSANTARA TBK
TMB TMB BANK PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
KBANK KASIKORNBANK PUBLIC CO. LTD.
BH BUMRUNGRAD HOSPITAL PUBLIC CO. LTD.
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
BN4 KEPPEL CORPORATION LIMITED
TLKM PT TELKOM INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
601689 NINGBO TUOPU GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
TCAP THANACHART CAPITAL PCL
MLT MAPLETREE LOGISTICS TRUST
MYEG MY EG SERVICES BHD
KTB KONTOOR BRANDS
EXCL XL AXIATA TBK PT
SCB SCB X PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
MTEL IJ PT DAYAMITRA TELEKOMUNIKASI
- Maskun Ramli
- Paula Ruth
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Indonesia Daily - Friday, April 25, 2025
Telecommunications: 4Q24: NPAT down slightly by 2% yoy. Downgrade to MARKET WEIGHT. Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ/BUY/Rp8,475/Target: Rp10,500): 1Q25: Net profit grows 9.8% yoy on the back of NIM expansion. TRADERS’ CORNER Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO IJ): Technical BUY Indosat (ISAT IJ): Technical BUY
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Colin Lee
- Desmond Chong Chee Wai
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Kasemsun Koonnara
- Ming San Soong
- Paula Ruth
- Philip Wong
- Sunny Chen
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Wednesday, April 23, 2025
GREATER CHINA Initiate Coverage Tencent Music Entertainment Group (1698 HK/BUY/HK$47.80/Target: HK$60.00) World’s largest music platform with evolving social ecosystem. Results Dian Diagnostics (300244 CH/HOLD/Rmb13.99/Target: Rmb15.00) 2024: Results in line; maintain 2025 revenue growth estimate of 8.8% yoy. iFlytek (002230 CH/SELL/Rmb45.18/Target: Rmb35.00) 2024 and 1Q25: Earnings miss on heightened R&D spending; solid top-line growth. Update Sunn...
0166 INARI AMERTRON
SXC SUNNY OPTICAL TECHNOLOGY (GROUP) CO. LTD.
002230 IFLYTEK CO. LTD. CLASS A
7160 PENTAMASTER CORP. BHD
NANO NANOCO GROUP
0097 VITROX
PTTGC PTT GLOBAL CHEMICAL PUBLIC COMPANY LTD
CPN CENTRAL PATTANA PUBLIC CO. LTD.
TLKM PT TELKOM INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
VSI V.S. INDUSTRY BERHAD
SKP SKP RESOURCES BHD
GREATEC GREATECH TECHNOLOGY BHD
CORAZA CORAZA INTEGRATED TECHNOLOGY BERHAD
NATGATE NATIONGATE HOLDINGS BHD
OPPSTAR OPPSTAR BERHAD
300244 DIAN DIAGNOSTICS GROUP CO
0303 ALPHA IVF GROUP
NE NORTHEAST GROUP BHD (NE MK)
1698 HK TENCENT MUSIC ENTERTAINMENT GROUP
- Paula Ruth
Telkom Indonesia (TLKM IJ) - 4Q24: NPAT Up 18% yoy
TLKM recorded 2024 EBITDA of Rp75t. This was in line with our and consensus full-year estimates. The strong yoy growth in 4Q24 NPAT was primarily supported by the digital investments’ appreciation (non-cash income) of Rp664b. Cellular (mobile) ARPU rose slightly by 2% qoq in 4Q24, but fell 7% yoy. The company guides lower capex to revenue (at 17-19%) in 2025 compared with its 2024 guidance (at 22-24%). Maintain HOLD with a higher target price of Rp2,700.
- Maskun Ramli
- Paula Ruth
- Paula Ruth
Telkom Indonesia (TLKM IJ) - Weak Macro Environment Could Limit Data M...
We downgrade TLKM to HOLD with a lower target price of Rp2,600 due to several factors: a) other telcos’ expansion to outer Java may result in a lower premium for Telkomsel’s data pricing vs its peers; b) weak macroeconomic conditions could limit its ability to raise data pricing; and c) we conservatively expect only slight growth in EBITDA (2% yoy) and NPAT (3% yoy) for 2025. Potential catalyst: a potential dividend yield of 7.7% (depending on AGM, likely in May), assuming a 80% payout.
- Maskun Ramli
- Paula Ruth
Indonesia Daily - Thursday, March 20, 2025
Telkom Indonesia (TLKM IJ/HOLD/Rp2,430/Target: Rp2,600): Weak macro environment could limit data monetisation; potential dividend yield of 7%. Downgrade to HOLD. TRADERS’ CORNER Charoen Pokphand Indonesia (CPIN IJ): Technical BUY Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ): Technical BUY
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Damon Shen
- Ejann Hiew
- Jieqi Liu
- Jonathan Koh
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ken Lee
- Ming San Soong
- Paula Ruth
- Philip Wong
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Sunny Chen
- Thanawat Thangchadakorn
Regional Morning Notes - Thursday, March 20, 2025
GREATER CHINA Results Anta Sports (2020 HK/BUY/HK$97.90/Target: HK$108.80): 2024: Revenue beats estimates but profit in line; lower sales target and conservative margin outlook for Fila. Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK/BUY/HK$56.35/Target: HK$68.00): 4Q24: Earnings up 34% yoy, in line with estimates. Maintain BUY. HUTCHMED (China) (13 HK/BUY/HK$23.90/Target: HK$30.00): 2024: Became self-sustainable; Fruquintinib continues to drive growth in 2025. Kerry Properties (683 HK/BUY/HK$18.74/Target:...
AS7 ANTA SPORTS PRODUCTS LTD.
AAON AAON INC.
00683 KERRY PROPERTIES LIMITED
3K1 KINGSOFT CORP. LTD.
AJBU KEPPEL DC REIT
01316 NEXTEER AUTOMOTIVE GROUP LIMITED
TLKM PT TELKOM INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
HCM HUTCHISON CHINA MEDITECH LIMITED
DBB DUOPHARMA BIOTECH BHD
3606 FUYAO GLASS INDUSTRY GROUP CO LTD-H
- Anas Fitri Bin Ahmad
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Chong Lee Len
- Damon Shen
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- Jieqi Liu
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Johnny Yum
- Kampon Akaravarinchai
- Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
- Llelleythan Tan Tan
- Philip Wong
- Stevanus Juanda
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
- Wei Xiang Ku
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Tuesday, February 25, 2025
GREATER CHINA Sector Property Channel checks and observations of Shenzhen and Shanghai primary markets. INDONESIA Strategy Danantara – Who Could Benefit Beneficiaries: PGEO, ANTM, TINS, BMRI, BBNI, BBRI and TLKM. We have an end-25 target of 7,500 for the JCI. MALAYSIA Results 99 Speed Mart Retail (99SMART MK/BUY/RM2.14/Target: RM2.60) 4Q24: Delivers on earnings...
00688 CHINA OVERSEAS LAND & INVESTMENT LIMITED
CC3 STARHUB LTD
ANTM PT ANEKA TAMBANG TBK
01109 CHINA RESOURCES LAND LIMITED
BBRI PT BANK RAKYAT INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
TOP THAI OIL PUBLIC CO. LTD.
4197 SIME DARBY BHD.
SCNR SUNAC CHINA HOLDINGS LTD.
RLF LONGFOR GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
TLKM PT TELKOM INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
KCE KCE ELECTRONICS PUBLIC CO. LTD.
RFMD RAFFLES MEDICAL GROUP LTD
TGIF 1933 INDUSTRIES
RSTON RIVERSTONE HOLDINGS LTD
CTOS CTOS DIGITAL BHD
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
PGEO PERTAMINA GEOTHERMAL ENERGY
99SMART 99 SPEED MART RETAIL HOLDINGS BHD
- Johnny Yum
- Stevanus Juanda
Strategy - Danantara – Who Could Benefit
Danantara was officially founded with an initial capital injection of US$20b. The initial funding will be used for investments in metal downstreaming, renewable energy, artificial intelligence, petrochemical and agriculture. Danantara can be audited or investigated for corruption. It could increase investment, drive GDP growth, provide stability and lower financing costs. We see the impact of lower dividends to the state budget as minimal. Beneficiaries: PGEO, ANTM, TINS, BMRI, BBNI, BBRI and TL...
- Johnny Yum
- Maskun Ramli
- Stevanus Juanda
Indonesia Daily - Tuesday, February 25, 2025
Strategy: Danantara – Who Could Benefit: Beneficiaries: PGEO, ANTM, TINS, BMRI, BBNI, BBRI and TLKM. We have an end-25 target of 7,500 for the JCI. TRADERS’ CORNER Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO IJ): Technical BUY Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ): Technical BUY
- Johnny Yum
- Stevanus Juanda
Strategy - Catching A Falling Knife Or Opportunity To Buy? We Say Buy
We think the current trajectory of the JCI presents a buying opportunity as: a) it is now trading at -2SD PE, similar to the levels seen during the pandemic, although the current situation may not be as severe; b) GDP is still expected to rise above 5%; and c) many programmes are driven by the government. We add defensive names with strong growth and attractive valuations to our recommendations. Our picks are BBCA, BBTN, CMRY, ICBP, KLBF, CTRA, AMRT, PGEO, TLKM and ISAT.
KLBF PT KALBE FARMA TBK
AMRT SUMBER ALFARIA TRIJAYA TBK PT
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
TLKM PT TELKOM INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
ICBP INDOFOOD CBP SUKSES MAKMUR T
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
PGEO PERTAMINA GEOTHERMAL ENERGY
ISAT INDOSAT TBK PT
- Johnny Yum
- Maskun Ramli
- Stevanus Juanda
Indonesia Daily - Tuesday, February 11, 2025
Strategy: Catching A Falling Knife Or Opportunity To Buy? We Say Buy: Our picks are BBCA, BBTN, CMRY, ICBP, KLBF, CTRA, AMRT, PGEO, TLKM and ISAT. We have a lower end-25 target of 7,500 for the JCI. TRADERS’ CORNER Unilever Indonesia (UNVR IJ): Technical BUY Merdeka Copper Gold (MDKA IJ): Technical BUY
KLBF PT KALBE FARMA TBK
AMRT SUMBER ALFARIA TRIJAYA TBK PT
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
TLKM PT TELKOM INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
ICBP INDOFOOD CBP SUKSES MAKMUR T
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
PGEO PERTAMINA GEOTHERMAL ENERGY
ISAT INDOSAT TBK PT
Moody's Ratings affirms Telkom Indonesia's Baa1 rating; outlook stable
Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has affirmed the Baa1 issuer rating and baa1 baseline credit assessment (BCA) of Telekomunikasi Indonesia (P.T.) (Telkom). The rating outlook remains stable. "The rating affirmation reflects our view that Telkom will retain its position as Indonesia's largest integrated t...
- Paula Ruth
Telecommunications – Average Data Traffic During Christmas/New Year 20...
EXCL’s holiday data traffic increased 19% vs normal days, higher than ISAT’s (more than 10% on 1 Jan 25). We maintain OVERWEIGHT on the telecommunications sector in view of factors such as: a) rising data traffic, b) relatively resilient demand for telco services, and c) potential industry consolidation which could support data monetisation in the long term. Our top picks are EXCL (BUY/Target: Rp3,200) and ISAT (BUY/Target: Rp3,100).
- Maskun Ramli
- Paula Ruth
- Paula Ruth
Telkom Indonesia (TLKM IJ) - 3Q24: IndiHome As Fixed Broadband Market ...
TLKM’s 9M24 EBITDA reached Rp57t, in line with our and consensus’ full-year estimates. The yoy decline in 3Q24 EBITDA was due to a slight fall in 3Q24 revenue (weak consumer purchasing power), coupled with a lower EBITDA margin (rising G&A expenses). Its fixed broadband subscriber base rose 11% yoy and 3% qoq in 3Q24. The slight 2% qoq decline in 3Q23 FBB ARPU was due to: a) accelerated rollout, and b) new users possibly choosing internet-only package. Maintain BUY. Target price: Rp4,200.
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