reports
- Paula Ruth
Telkom Indonesia (TLKM IJ) - Gradual Simplification Of Product Portfol...
Telkomsel launched a new starter pack with higher headline pricing (40% above previous starter pack) in Mar 25. This is also part of its gradual effort to simplify its product portfolio (target: 200SKUs). Telkomsel views the current market consolidation as a positive sign going forward. We expect a dividend payout of 65% from 2026 NPAT, implying a DPS of Rp158 (5.6% yield). This partly reflects analysts’ session with TLKM’s new management. Maintain HOLD with a higher target price of Rp2,900.
- Maskun Ramli
- Paula Ruth
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Thursday, July 03, 2025
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: July Conviction Calls Add CATL, KE Holdings, Longfor, Midea Group, Tencent and TME to our BUY list. Take profit on Prudential. Sector Online Games Upcoming new game releases to capitalise on the summer holiday season. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Good Performances In June Our new alpha picks are ANTM, BBCA, ERAA, ICBP, MYOR, MIKA...
AEONTS AEON THANA SINSAP (THAILAND) PCL
CK CH. KARNCHANG PCL
KTC KRUNGTHAI CARD PCL
A0M4P7 HAN'S LASER TECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
00291 CHINA RESOURCES BEER (HOLDINGS) CO. LTD.
ANTM PT ANEKA TAMBANG TBK
BN2 VALUETRONICS HOLDINGS
3K1 KINGSOFT CORP. LTD.
RLF LONGFOR GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
AMRT SUMBER ALFARIA TRIJAYA TBK PT
AIY IFAST
COM7 COM7
558 UMS HOLDINGS LIMITED
MYOR MAYORA INDAH
C52 COMFORTDELGRO CORPORATION LIMITED
KBANK KASIKORNBANK PUBLIC CO. LTD.
01177 SINO BIOPHARMACEUTICAL LIMITED
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
O39 OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORPORATION LIMITED
002472 ZHEJIANG SHUANGHUAN DRIVELINE (A)
ERAA ERAJAYA SWASEMBADA
TLKM PT TELKOM INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
000333 MIDEA GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
TCAP THANACHART CAPITAL PCL
MIKA MITRA KELUARGA KARYASEHAT
SAWAD SRISAWAD CORPORATION PUBLIC COMPANY LTD
D01 DAIRY FARM INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LIMITED
01810 XIAOMI CORP. CLASS B
VSI V.S. INDUSTRY BERHAD
MTC MUANGTHAI CAPITAL PCL
SSG SHENG SIONG GROUP LTD
ICBP INDOFOOD CBP SUKSES MAKMUR T
CPALL TB CP ALL
01801 INNOVENT BIOLOGICS INC.
PROP PROPNEX LTD
FEH FOOD EMPIRE HOLDINGS LTD
FRKN FRENCKEN GROUP LTD
CSSC CHINA SUNSINE CHEMICAL HOLDINGS LTD
09988 ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD.
09999 NETEASE INC
CICT CAPITALAND INTEGRATED COMMERCIAL TRUST
LREIT SP LENDLEASE GLOBAL COMMERCIAL REIT
02618 JD LOGISTICS INC
02423 KE HOLDINGS INC.
CLAR CAPITALAND ASCENDAS REIT
SDG SD GUTHRIE BHD
STECON STECON GROUP PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
1698 HK TENCENT MUSIC ENTERTAINMENT GROUP
TIDLOR TIDLOR HOLDINGS PCL
3750 CONTEMPORARY AMPEREX TECHNOLOGY (3750 HK)
- Johnny Yum
Strategy - Alpha Picks: Good Performances In June
Our Jun 25 portfolio outperformed the JCI and LQ45 by +5.1%/+7.1% respectively, mainly driven by DKFT (+16% performance) and outperformances by other stocks such as ANTM, CMRY and AMRT. Several major events to watch out this month include upcoming IPOs (especially the sizeable Chandra Daya Investasi (CDIA) IPO worth about US$143m) and the outcome of the US-Indo reciprocal tariffs discussion on 9 July. Our new Alpha Picks are ANTM, BBCA, ERAA, ICBP, MYOR, MIKA, AMRT and TLKM.
- Johnny Yum
- Paula Ruth
Telecommunications – 1Q25: EBITDA Stable At -0.8% qoq
In 1Q25, the combined EBITDA of Indonesia’s big telcos dropped 6% yoy, but was stable qoq. Combined 1Q25 NPAT was also slightly lower (2% yoy). Among the big three telcos, ISAT and Telkomsel (majority owned by TLKM) gained market share in 1Q25 (based on EBITDA) vs 4Q24. We are monitoring TLKM’s upcoming AGM (27 May) as we expect a potential dividend yield of around 7% (assuming an 80% payout). Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the telecommunications sector with ISAT as our top pick.
- Maskun Ramli
- Paula Ruth
- Paula Ruth
Telecommunications – 4Q24: NPAT Down Slightly By 2% yoy
Big Telcos’ 4Q24 EBITDA was roughly stable (-0.2%) qoq, but declined slightly by 4% yoy Meanwhile, combined 4Q24 net profit fell slightly by 2% yoy, but rose 11% qoq. During 4Q24, EXCL slightly increased its market share (based on EBITDA) among the top three telcos. We downgrade the telecommunications sector to MARKET WEIGHT from OVERWEIGHT as we expect TLKM, the parent company of Telkomsel (market leader), to book only a slightly moderate top-line growth of 2% yoy in 2025. Our top pick is ISAT.
- Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Jack Goh Tooan Orng
- Jonathan Koh
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Kampon Akaravarinchai
- Ken Lee
- Ming San Soong
- Paula Ruth
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Sunny Chen
- Thanawat Thangchadakorn
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Friday, April 25, 2025
GREATER CHINA Results Aier Eye Hospital Group (300015 CH/BUY/Rmb12.72/Target: Rmb17.80) 2024: Satisfactory results; expects strong recovery in 2025. Upgrade to BUY. Ningbo Tuopu Group Co (601689 CH/BUY/Rmb50.96/Target: Rmb83.00) 4Q24: Earnings up 38.5% yoy, in line. Maintain BUY with target price unchanged at Rmb83.00. TAL Educational Group (TAL US/BUY/US$9.36/Target: US$14.00) 4QFY25: Earnings miss amid ramped-up investments in AI-powered learning. INDONESIA Sector Telecommun...
IZZ TAL EDUCATION GROUP SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
KKP KIATNAKIN BANK
BBL BANGKOK BANK PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
ISAT INDOSAT
TISCO TISCO FINANCIAL GROUP
300015 AIER EYE HOSPITAL GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
TOWR PT SARANA MENARA NUSANTARA TBK
TMB TMB BANK PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
KBANK KASIKORNBANK PUBLIC CO. LTD.
BH BUMRUNGRAD HOSPITAL PUBLIC CO. LTD.
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
BN4 KEPPEL CORPORATION LIMITED
TLKM PT TELKOM INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
601689 NINGBO TUOPU GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
TCAP THANACHART CAPITAL PCL
MLT MAPLETREE LOGISTICS TRUST
MYEG MY EG SERVICES BHD
KTB KONTOOR BRANDS
EXCL XL AXIATA TBK PT
SCB SCB X PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
MTEL IJ PT DAYAMITRA TELEKOMUNIKASI
- Maskun Ramli
- Paula Ruth
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Indonesia Daily - Friday, April 25, 2025
Telecommunications: 4Q24: NPAT down slightly by 2% yoy. Downgrade to MARKET WEIGHT. Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ/BUY/Rp8,475/Target: Rp10,500): 1Q25: Net profit grows 9.8% yoy on the back of NIM expansion. TRADERS’ CORNER Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO IJ): Technical BUY Indosat (ISAT IJ): Technical BUY
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Colin Lee
- Desmond Chong Chee Wai
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Kasemsun Koonnara
- Ming San Soong
- Paula Ruth
- Philip Wong
- Sunny Chen
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Wednesday, April 23, 2025
GREATER CHINA Initiate Coverage Tencent Music Entertainment Group (1698 HK/BUY/HK$47.80/Target: HK$60.00) World’s largest music platform with evolving social ecosystem. Results Dian Diagnostics (300244 CH/HOLD/Rmb13.99/Target: Rmb15.00) 2024: Results in line; maintain 2025 revenue growth estimate of 8.8% yoy. iFlytek (002230 CH/SELL/Rmb45.18/Target: Rmb35.00) 2024 and 1Q25: Earnings miss on heightened R&D spending; solid top-line growth. Update Sunn...
0166 INARI AMERTRON
SXC SUNNY OPTICAL TECHNOLOGY (GROUP) CO. LTD.
002230 IFLYTEK CO. LTD. CLASS A
7160 PENTAMASTER CORP. BHD
NANO NANOCO GROUP
0097 VITROX
PTTGC PTT GLOBAL CHEMICAL PUBLIC COMPANY LTD
CPN CENTRAL PATTANA PUBLIC CO. LTD.
TLKM PT TELKOM INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
VSI V.S. INDUSTRY BERHAD
SKP SKP RESOURCES BHD
GREATEC GREATECH TECHNOLOGY BHD
CORAZA CORAZA INTEGRATED TECHNOLOGY BERHAD
NATGATE NATIONGATE HOLDINGS BHD
OPPSTAR OPPSTAR BERHAD
300244 DIAN DIAGNOSTICS GROUP CO
0303 ALPHA IVF GROUP
NE NORTHEAST GROUP BHD (NE MK)
1698 HK TENCENT MUSIC ENTERTAINMENT GROUP
- Paula Ruth
Telkom Indonesia (TLKM IJ) - 4Q24: NPAT Up 18% yoy
TLKM recorded 2024 EBITDA of Rp75t. This was in line with our and consensus full-year estimates. The strong yoy growth in 4Q24 NPAT was primarily supported by the digital investments’ appreciation (non-cash income) of Rp664b. Cellular (mobile) ARPU rose slightly by 2% qoq in 4Q24, but fell 7% yoy. The company guides lower capex to revenue (at 17-19%) in 2025 compared with its 2024 guidance (at 22-24%). Maintain HOLD with a higher target price of Rp2,700.
- Maskun Ramli
- Paula Ruth
- Paula Ruth
Telkom Indonesia (TLKM IJ) - Weak Macro Environment Could Limit Data M...
We downgrade TLKM to HOLD with a lower target price of Rp2,600 due to several factors: a) other telcos’ expansion to outer Java may result in a lower premium for Telkomsel’s data pricing vs its peers; b) weak macroeconomic conditions could limit its ability to raise data pricing; and c) we conservatively expect only slight growth in EBITDA (2% yoy) and NPAT (3% yoy) for 2025. Potential catalyst: a potential dividend yield of 7.7% (depending on AGM, likely in May), assuming a 80% payout.
- Maskun Ramli
- Paula Ruth
Indonesia Daily - Thursday, March 20, 2025
Telkom Indonesia (TLKM IJ/HOLD/Rp2,430/Target: Rp2,600): Weak macro environment could limit data monetisation; potential dividend yield of 7%. Downgrade to HOLD. TRADERS’ CORNER Charoen Pokphand Indonesia (CPIN IJ): Technical BUY Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ): Technical BUY
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Damon Shen
- Ejann Hiew
- Jieqi Liu
- Jonathan Koh
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ken Lee
- Ming San Soong
- Paula Ruth
- Philip Wong
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Sunny Chen
- Thanawat Thangchadakorn
Regional Morning Notes - Thursday, March 20, 2025
GREATER CHINA Results Anta Sports (2020 HK/BUY/HK$97.90/Target: HK$108.80): 2024: Revenue beats estimates but profit in line; lower sales target and conservative margin outlook for Fila. Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK/BUY/HK$56.35/Target: HK$68.00): 4Q24: Earnings up 34% yoy, in line with estimates. Maintain BUY. HUTCHMED (China) (13 HK/BUY/HK$23.90/Target: HK$30.00): 2024: Became self-sustainable; Fruquintinib continues to drive growth in 2025. Kerry Properties (683 HK/BUY/HK$18.74/Target:...
AS7 ANTA SPORTS PRODUCTS LTD.
AAON AAON INC.
00683 KERRY PROPERTIES LIMITED
3K1 KINGSOFT CORP. LTD.
AJBU KEPPEL DC REIT
01316 NEXTEER AUTOMOTIVE GROUP LIMITED
TLKM PT TELKOM INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
HCM HUTCHISON CHINA MEDITECH LIMITED
DBB DUOPHARMA BIOTECH BHD
3606 FUYAO GLASS INDUSTRY GROUP CO LTD-H
- Anas Fitri Bin Ahmad
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Chong Lee Len
- Damon Shen
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- Jieqi Liu
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Johnny Yum
- Kampon Akaravarinchai
- Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
- Llelleythan Tan Tan
- Philip Wong
- Stevanus Juanda
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
- Wei Xiang Ku
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Tuesday, February 25, 2025
GREATER CHINA Sector Property Channel checks and observations of Shenzhen and Shanghai primary markets. INDONESIA Strategy Danantara – Who Could Benefit Beneficiaries: PGEO, ANTM, TINS, BMRI, BBNI, BBRI and TLKM. We have an end-25 target of 7,500 for the JCI. MALAYSIA Results 99 Speed Mart Retail (99SMART MK/BUY/RM2.14/Target: RM2.60) 4Q24: Delivers on earnings...
00688 CHINA OVERSEAS LAND & INVESTMENT LIMITED
CC3 STARHUB LTD
ANTM PT ANEKA TAMBANG TBK
01109 CHINA RESOURCES LAND LIMITED
BBRI PT BANK RAKYAT INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
TOP THAI OIL PUBLIC CO. LTD.
4197 SIME DARBY BHD.
SCNR SUNAC CHINA HOLDINGS LTD.
RLF LONGFOR GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
TLKM PT TELKOM INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
KCE KCE ELECTRONICS PUBLIC CO. LTD.
RFMD RAFFLES MEDICAL GROUP LTD
TGIF 1933 INDUSTRIES
RSTON RIVERSTONE HOLDINGS LTD
CTOS CTOS DIGITAL BHD
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
PGEO PERTAMINA GEOTHERMAL ENERGY
99SMART 99 SPEED MART RETAIL HOLDINGS BHD
- Johnny Yum
- Stevanus Juanda
Strategy - Danantara – Who Could Benefit
Danantara was officially founded with an initial capital injection of US$20b. The initial funding will be used for investments in metal downstreaming, renewable energy, artificial intelligence, petrochemical and agriculture. Danantara can be audited or investigated for corruption. It could increase investment, drive GDP growth, provide stability and lower financing costs. We see the impact of lower dividends to the state budget as minimal. Beneficiaries: PGEO, ANTM, TINS, BMRI, BBNI, BBRI and TL...
- Johnny Yum
- Maskun Ramli
- Stevanus Juanda
Indonesia Daily - Tuesday, February 25, 2025
Strategy: Danantara – Who Could Benefit: Beneficiaries: PGEO, ANTM, TINS, BMRI, BBNI, BBRI and TLKM. We have an end-25 target of 7,500 for the JCI. TRADERS’ CORNER Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO IJ): Technical BUY Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ): Technical BUY
- Johnny Yum
- Stevanus Juanda
Strategy - Catching A Falling Knife Or Opportunity To Buy? We Say Buy
We think the current trajectory of the JCI presents a buying opportunity as: a) it is now trading at -2SD PE, similar to the levels seen during the pandemic, although the current situation may not be as severe; b) GDP is still expected to rise above 5%; and c) many programmes are driven by the government. We add defensive names with strong growth and attractive valuations to our recommendations. Our picks are BBCA, BBTN, CMRY, ICBP, KLBF, CTRA, AMRT, PGEO, TLKM and ISAT.
KLBF PT KALBE FARMA TBK
AMRT SUMBER ALFARIA TRIJAYA TBK PT
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
TLKM PT TELKOM INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
ICBP INDOFOOD CBP SUKSES MAKMUR T
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
PGEO PERTAMINA GEOTHERMAL ENERGY
ISAT INDOSAT TBK PT
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