Navigating Out Of US-Iran’s “Operation Epic Fury” Highlights The US-Iran conflict may be compared to the Russia-Ukraine war. In both cases, energy stocks may correlate to near-term spikes in O&G prices at the start. In the case of Russia-Ukraine, eventually the renewable theme stocks outperformed the energy stocks. However, uncertainties arise as the war drags on. For example, MISC benefits from the sentiment from spikes in rates for crude tankers and LNG carriers. However, markets may price i...
Greater China Economics | Economic Activity Economic activity in 2M26 broadly surprised to the upside. Industrial production accelerated to 6.3% yoy, while retail sales recovered to 2.8% yoy. FAI ytd rebounded to 1.8% yoy, beating expectations of a contraction, supported by strong infrastructure spending and a marked improvement in property FAI ytd to −11.1% yoy. However, it remains to be seen if the rebound is sustainable, as February’s PMI remained in contractionary territory at 49.0. Se...
Petronas: Emerging Stronger After 2025 Highlights Emerging stronger after weathering through 2025. Described as a year of polycrisis that caused a 19% decline in profits, and necessitates the group to execute right-sizing exercises (two more phases in Mar and Jul 26), Petronas’ cash flow preservation remains commendable. Looking ahead, with much lower dividend obligation and minor upside to normalised capex commitment levels, 2026 can be viewed as a year for Petronas to refocus on its renewed,...
Greater China Sector Update | China Property Seazen’s C-REIT application signals improving financing channels. Sector fundamentals remain weak, with 2M26 developers’ contract sales and major cities’ new-home data still under pressure, despite relatively resilient secondary transactions. Second-hand property prices modestly recovered mom in four Tier 1 cities. We maintain UNDERWEIGHT but see potential policy after the March NPC. Our top pick is CR Land, trading at 0.65x 26PB, 0.6SD below mean...
4Q25: Results In Line; Dividend Surprises On the Upside Highlights 2025 EBITDA and core profit within expectations, at 95% of our/consensus estimates. Rig average daily charter rate (DCR) of US$118,000/day and utilisation of 72%, are close to our assumption of US$110,000/day and 75% respectively. The DCR downtrend was well-guided given that softer jackup (JU) rig market conditions are anticipated. Velesto Energy (VEB) declared an interim DPS of 2.25 sen, bringing 2025 DPS to 3 sen, which signi...
MBR 2026: A Key Enabler Towards 2m BOEPD Goal Highlights MBR 2026 to explore new frontiers in unlocking the full potential of Malaysia’s basin. A positive surprise was that local production increased to about 1.9m boepd in 2025 despite 1H25 setbacks. While the long-term sustainable target remains at 2m boepd, the increased funnel of field development plans that are made possible through the collaboration of new PSCs, innovations and simplifications, are showing results. The ambitious scope of ...
PAO 2026-28: Walking The Talk On OGSE Ecosystem Imperative Highlights Unlike previous PAO editions, the OGSE Imperative may be the right ingredient for both Petronas and the industry to move forward. Petronas is sending a clear message that the OGSE ecosystem is not ancillary, but a vital component to Petronas’ own sustainability. As OGSE evolves into a globally competitive value chain, it will directly boost Petronas’ global market relevance and ability to deliver energy security by upholding...
Greater China Company Update | NAURA Technology Group (002371 CH/BUY/Rmb497.68/Target: Rmb571.70) We see multiple upside risks to our assumption about NAURA for 2026-27. Domestic foundries and memory IDMs are likely to further raise their capex plans for advanced nodes given robust downstream demand and capacity shortage, while the mature node capex may end up better than feared thanks to overflow demand from global Tier 1 foundries. On the other hand, localisation efforts are accelerating signi...
Catalysts Priced In On Outlook And Cash Conservation Highlights 2026 may be a reset year for the global jackup (JU) rig industry. While 2025 was a period of market softness, Velesto Energy’s (VEB) outlook should be supported by a recovery in global JU rig demand in 2026 as well as a definitive timeline for the N3 rig disposal. The latter may generate a special dividend of 3 sen. Although we think this was the key catalyst driving up the share price lately, we do not factor the special dividend...
3QFY25: EBITDA On Track Highlights 3QFY25 EBITDA met expectations, although core profit beat our earlier forecast as we adjusted depreciation forecasts to better reflect its balance sheet post reorganisation. There is no change to its rig outlook, which remains positive amid tight market conditions. Likewise, we do not see major risk due to the movement by direct local competitor Petrovietnam Drilling (PVD) partnering with a local offshore support vessel (OSV) player. Despite changes in our pr...
Greater China Company Results | Foxconn Industrial Internet (601138 CH/BUY/Rmb80.80/Target: Rmb89.50) FII registered a stellar quarter, with net profit beating our and consensus estimates on stronger-than-expected margins. Top-line lagged our expectations, likely due to differences in product mix, and also the reason behind margins remaining elevated despite the product ramp-up of the lower-margin GB200 NVL72 racks. With the recent checks continuing to point towards a much stronger-than-expected...
In Better Position For Sustainable Dividend Returns Highlights Reassessed forecast and concluded ability for higher dividend justified. We see no major changes to a positive JU rig outlook, as a normalisation of rig rates and 75% utilisation assumption is still our base case scenario. We also do not assume “bonus” contracts beyond those utilising its fleet of six JU rigs. However, the minimal capex requirement is what prompted us to upgrade our DPS forecast substantially, as there are no costl...
1H25: Stable Dividend Expected To Support Current Price 1H25 EBITDA is within expectations, given potentially weaker 2H25 DCR. However, profits and DPS beat expectations. Clearer prospects from regional opportunities (alongside multi-year contract tenures) further strengthen VEB’s ability to maintain over 75% utilisation. VEB’s commendable financial discipline shows it can afford a dividend payout of over 100% (and exceed 2024’s DPS) under our new stress test forecast, if DCR remains above US$90...
Results ASMPT (522 HK/BUY/HK$63.20/Target: HK$92.40): 2Q25: Results largely in line. Solid bookings beat as mainstream tools recover; AP tools progressing well in logic and at HBM clients. Update Prudential (2378 HK/BUY/HK$98.10/Target: HK$128.00): 1H25 results preview: Expecting solid NBP growth and focusing on capital management. INDONESIA Small/Mid Cap Highlights Medco Energi Internasional (MEDC IJ/NOT RATED/Rp1,260): Disciplined strategy and portfolio diversification. MALAYSIA Update CIMB ...
Heading Into New Territory As A Leading ASEAN Rig Player We concluded that VEB will be able to maintain reasonably high utilization >75%, despite softer rig market conditions vs 2022-24 and the disruption of local offshore activities. Therefore, it also lends higher confidence to sustain dividends at 2024 levels (7% yield). Although not a deliberate strategy, VEB was able to mitigate the “local geopolitical risk” by benefiting from ASEAN opportunities, especially rig demand in Indonesia, Vietnam...
Industry Consolidation Continues In 2025: The Age Of Electricity As the International Energy Agency (IEA) terms 2025 as the “Age Of Electricity” where investments focusing on AI, data centers and grid/storage/battery upgrades take centerstage, we see continued consolidation in the local O&G industry, driven by Petronas’ right-sizing exercise, recalibration following the Petros issue, and the shift towards new industries such as CCS, despite near-term upside risk to oil prices from geopolitical e...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Property Weakening sales in China has raised hopes of policy support in July; rebound in HIBOR will test the strength of recovery in Hong Kong property sales. INDONESIA Update Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ/BUY/Rp5,025/Target: Rp6,000) 5M25: Steady earnings amid NIM pressure. MALAYSIA Sector Oil & Gas ...
1Q25: Commendable Start At Peak DCR; Upside Depends On Diversification VEB’s 1Q25 profit and EBITDA appeared to comprise >25% of our/consensus forecasts but are within expectations as 1Q25 is expected to be a strong showing relative to the rest of 2025. Utilisation for 2Q25 may weaken temporarily, while the average realised rig rates will fall in 2H25. VEB’s ability to diversify outside of Petronas (by breaking into Vietnam and Indonesia) will be crucial for our scenario of 75% utilisation rate....
Geopolitical Risk May Extend to CCS, Allowing Sector Consolidation Regardless the details to be announced in PM Anwar and Sarawak Premier Jo’s new agreement later this week, we take a view that the Petronas-Petros geopolitical risk may prolong, extending to carbon storage (the next business frontier for the sector), until the shift of monetary flows are more balanced between the regions. If this happens, the sector will have breathing space to consolidate; hence, we continue to advise focusing o...
Behold, The Dragon With Robotic Arms Although 1Q25 was a bad quarter for global JU rigs in terms of utilisation, we understand that the metrics have stabilised recently, thus supporting a buoyant market with a utilisation rate of >80%. Recognising that this is the time to expand and despite operating in a tough market environment, VEB aims to have regional presence, and continues to adapt to market needs, including embracing automation and robotic arms. Retain BUY. Target price: RM0.22. Its curr...
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