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Martin Huseby Karlsen
  • Martin Huseby Karlsen

Valuation and market update

In this note, we show updated valuation and market statistics for the Offshore Drilling sector.

 PRESS RELEASE

BW Offshore: Closing of the sale of the FPSO Polvo to BW Energy

BW Offshore: Closing of the sale of the FPSO Polvo to BW Energy Closing of the sale of the FPSO Polvo to BW Energy Reference is made to the announcement on 22 April 2022, whereby BW Offshore Limited (“BW Offshore”) announced the agreement to divest the FPSO Polvo to BW Energy Limited for USD 50 million. BW Energy has paid USD 30 million upon the vessel transfer date, with the remaining USD 20 million provided as a seller’s credit by BW Offshore. BW Offshore has received the remaining USD 20 million plus interest. The final instalment concludes the transaction. The FPSO Polvo, which was o...

ABGSC Services Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Services Research
  • Stefan Knutsson
Martin Huseby Karlsen
  • Martin Huseby Karlsen

Consensus back in focus and tier-2 deepwater risk

With the start of the Q1 reporting season for Offshore Drilling, we sense increased investor attention on the risk to consensus. Although we like the investment case for its valuation in the out-years (2026), our estimates remain below consensus. We see potential for share price volatility as near-term consensus is revised lower, while investors gradually underwrite 2026 valuations. We also believe the gaps between contracts and increased idle-time risk for tier-2 deepwater rigs are not properly...

ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Haakon Amundsen

A good start to the year

Q1 EPS 7% above, but some special elements. Backlog implies revenue estimates are robust. Strong momentum, high expectations - HOLD.

Niclas Gehin
  • Niclas Gehin

Kongsberg Gruppen (Hold, TP: NOK780.00) - Solid Maritime margin beat i...

Q1 EBITDA beat our estimate and consensus by 9%, explained by a stronger Maritime (KM) margin than expected. However, as previously guided, the Defence (KD) margin did fall to 17% in this quarter. We have edged our 2025–2026e EPS up 2% after primarily raising our KM margin assumptions, but reiterate our HOLD and NOK780 target price as we believe the stock is already pricing in a possible ramp-up of NATO defence spending to at least 2.5% of GDP for all member states.

 PRESS RELEASE

BW Offshore: 2024 Annual General Meeting – Notice

BW Offshore: 2024 Annual General Meeting – Notice 2024 Annual General Meeting – Notice Notice is hereby given that the 2024 Annual General Meeting of BW Offshore Limited will be held at 18 Rebecca Road, Southampton, SN04, Bermuda, on 23 May 2024 at 2:30 p.m. (Bermuda time). Please see the attached documents in relation to the Annual General Meeting: Notice of the 2024 AGMForm of ProxyChairman’s LetterRecommendation from the Nomination Committee For further information, please contact:Ståle Andreassen, CFO, or About BW Offshore:BW Offshore engineers innovative floating produc...

Martin Huseby Karlsen
  • Martin Huseby Karlsen

Valuation and market update

In this note, we show updated valuation and market statistics for the Offshore Drilling sector.

ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Haakon Amundsen

Rich in growth, quality and valuation

Still growing well into Q1e. Strong tailwinds in Defence, but within expectations. Strong growth into the end of the decade priced in - HOLD.

Niclas Gehin
  • Niclas Gehin

Kongsberg Gruppen (Hold, TP: NOK780.00) - NATO spending sets the tone

We have downgraded to HOLD (BUY), but raised our target price to NOK780 (680), as we believe the valuation now reflects a probable NATO defence-spending ramp-up. Based on our analysis of various Western defence-budget scenarios and the correlation to Kongsberg Gruppen’s growth and valuation, we find the following priced in: by 2030, all non-US NATO defence spending rising to 2.5% of GDP, the equipment share of spending increasing from 30% to 40%, and Kongsberg Gruppen’s EBITDA margin expanding f...

Martin Huseby Karlsen
  • Martin Huseby Karlsen

Valuation and market update

In this note, we show updated valuation and market statistics for the Offshore Drilling sector.

Martin Huseby Karlsen
  • Martin Huseby Karlsen

Valuation and market update

In this note, we show updated valuation and market statistics for the Offshore Drilling sector.

 PRESS RELEASE

BW Offshore: Recycling FPSO Petróleo Nautipa in compliance with Hong K...

BW Offshore: Recycling FPSO Petróleo Nautipa in compliance with Hong Kong Convention Recycling FPSO Petróleo Nautipa in compliance with Hong Kong Convention BW Offshore has signed an agreement to recycle FPSO Petróleo Nautipa in compliance with the Hong Kong International Convention at Baijnath Melaram ship recycling facility (the “Facility”) in India. The Facility is certified to ISO standards and has been issued with a Statement of Compliance by the ship classification society Class NK in accordance with IMO Resolution MEPC.210(63) and the Hong Kong International Convention for the safe...

Martin Huseby Karlsen
  • Martin Huseby Karlsen

Limited change in EP spending

After reviewing oil companies’ most recent spending plans, we estimate offshore spending growth of c7% YOY for 2024, in line with our November update. Growth is concentrated, with Petrobras being the key driver, favouring service companies with Brazil exposure. Looking ahead, further spending growth is likely to be partly limited by total spending already being on a par with operating cash flow. Delayed energy transition spending is seen as positive for oil services, while recent E&P consolidati...

Martin Huseby Karlsen
  • Martin Huseby Karlsen

Valuation and market update

In this note, we show updated valuation and market statistics for the Offshore Drilling sector.

Martin Huseby Karlsen
  • Martin Huseby Karlsen

Focus shifting to entry points

Aramco’s rig suspensions came as a negative surprise for many, but we now sense a shift in focus among investors from concern to entry points for jackup names. As many suspended rigs are likely to aggressively look for work elsewhere, we expect mixed news flow to mean still-volatile share prices. Still, we believe current levels in our coverage universe represent a good entry point for long-term investors seeking jackup exposure.

 PRESS RELEASE

BW Offshore: Notification of trade

BW Offshore: Notification of trade Notification of trade With reference to stock exchange releases dated 8 April 2019 and 30 March 2023. In relation to BW Offshore’s (the "Company") Long-Term Incentive Programme (LTIP) adopted in 2019, the Company's exposure relating to the 2019 award was hedged by a Total Return Swap (“TRS”) agreement with financial exposure to 1 732 000 shares in BW Offshore. The Company has today settled the TRS agreement underlying 1 732 000 shares in BW Offshore expiring 5 April 2024. The Company has subsequently entered into a new TRS agreement with exposure ...

Martin Huseby Karlsen
  • Martin Huseby Karlsen

Local Middle East contractors confirm Aramco suspensions

This morning local contractors ADES and ADC confirmed the suspension of rigs contracted with Aramco for 5 and 3 jackups, respectively. This brings the total confirmed suspensions to 16 jackups, while we believe a scenario with a total of 20–25 jackups being affected (of c90 contracted with Aramco) may unfold. Looking ahead, the key for the wider jackup market relates to how these rigs are marketed for work elsewhere, as it appears rigs are becoming available on short notice. Over time, we believ...

Martin Huseby Karlsen
  • Martin Huseby Karlsen

Valuation and market update

In this note, we show updated valuation and market statistics for the Offshore Drilling sector.

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