reports
- Suvi Platerink Kosonen
Bank Capital/It's getting hot in here
We take a look at the broad developments in euro-denominated AT1 markets. So far this year the tight trading levels have reflected as banks continuing to remain very active in primary markets. With the uncertain geopolitical landscape, we would remain selective on issuers and in terms of bonds.
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: SPL PW; TL Macro; DNP PW; CZG CP; 4IG HB
HEADLINES: • Santander Bank Polska: sells 60% stake in SCB for 2024 P/BV of 1.2x, books modest gain of PLN 0.4bn NEGATIVE • Türkiye macro: weak BoP, but improving budget • Dino: AGM approves 1:10 share split NEUTRAL • Colt CZ Group SE: closes VSS acquisition • 4iG: signs non-binding term sheet to acquire nine defence subsidiaries from N7 Holding NEUTRAL
- Jeroen van den Broek
- Timothy Rahill
Credit Outlook update/An unstoppable force against an immovable object
As we approach summer and reflect upon the already very busy and volatile first half of the year, we review our Credit Markets Outlook for 2025 and offer an update on our views, positioning and forecasts for the remainder of the year. We include our Picks and Pans on the Utilities, TMT, Real Estate and Bank sectors.
GFC GECINA SA
PBB DEUTSCHE PFANDBRIEFBANK AG
PSA PUBLIC STORAGE
RBI RAIFFEISEN BANK INTERNATIONAL AG
WKL WOLTERS KLUWER NV
ORSTED ORSTED
DTE DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG
ICAD ICADE SA
DLR DIGITAL REALTY TRUST INC.
TEF TELEFONICA SA
SAB BANCO DE SABADELL SA
GRDDY GRAND CITY PROPERTIES SA
- Marine Leleux
- Maureen Schuller
- Suvi Platerink Kosonen
Bank Brunch/Norwegian preferred senior, ECB rating rules, RBI damages,...
Norwegian preferred senior to face some performance boundaries. ECB collateral: Rating rule changes will hardly impact preferred senior. Raiffeisen Bank International completes payment of damages. Commerzbank AT1 tender results
- Marine Leleux
- Maureen Schuller
- Suvi Platerink Kosonen
Bank Brunch/Norwegian preferred senior, ECB rating rules, RBI damages,...
Norwegian preferred senior to face some performance boundaries. ECB collateral: Rating rule changes will hardly impact preferred senior. Raiffeisen Bank International completes payment of damages. Commerzbank AT1 tender results
- Jonathan Lamb
European Oil and Gas Monthly: May 2025 – bottomed out
Brent crude prices continued to decline in May, but trends within the month suggest that we may have hit the bottom. The WOOD benchmark refining margin strengthened again, to USD 11.5/bbl, with all product groups and differentials playing their part. Petrochemicals remained in the doldrums, despite lower input costs. The gas market appears to be stable, but prices are sticky. Storage rose to 48% full at the end of the month, similar to the seasonal average. LNG imports declined a little, but cum...
- Research Team
The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: EME indices mostly in the green in...
EME Equity Market – May 2025 EME indices mostly in the green in May, apart from Türkiye. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 3.6% mom in EUR and USD terms. The Greek ASE index (+7.8% mom) was the best performer, followed by the Czech PX (+6.6% mom) and Romanian BET indices (+5.0% mom), the Hungarian BUX (+4.0% mom) and the Polish WIG20 (+2.0% mom; all in EUR terms). The Turkish ISE30 Index was, again, the worst performer, with a more modest decline (-1.4% mom in EUR terms) this time.
JMT JERONIMO MARTINS SGPS S.A.
OPAP GREEK ORGANISATION OF FOOTBALL PROGNOSTICS SA
EXAE HELLENIC EXCHANGES SA
MOL MOL NYRT
EBS ERSTE GROUP BANK AG
CEZ CEZ AS
ACP ASSECO POLAND SA
KRKG KRKA D.D.
HTO HELLENIC TELECOMMUNICATIONS ORGANIZATION SA
CDR CD PROJEKT S.A.
RBI RAIFFEISEN BANK INTERNATIONAL AG
OMV OMV AG
PKO PKO BANK POLSKI S.A.
ISCTR TURKIYE IS BANKASI ANONIM SIRKETI CLASS C
TITK TITAN CEMENT CO. SA
BHW BANK HANDLOWY W WARSZAWIE S.A.
BIMAS BIM BIRLESIK MAGAZALAR A.S.
PZU POWSZECHNY ZAKLAD UBEZPIECZEN SPOLKA AKCYJNA
SPL SANTANDER BANK POLSKA SA
MIL BANK MILLENNIUM SA
BSK ING BANK SLASKI S.A.
BDX BUDIMEX S.A.
LAMDA LAMDA DEVELOPMENT S.A.
GEKTERNA GEK TERNA
MTELEKOM MAGYAR TELEKOM TELECOMMUNICATIONS
KTY GRUPA KETY SA
CAI CA IMMOBILIEN ANLAGEN AG
PKN POLSKI KONCERN NAFTOWY ORLEN S.A.
ASELS ASELSAN ELEKTRONIK SANAYI VE TICARET A.S. CLASS B
CCOLA COCA-COLA ICECEK A.S.
ENA ENEA S.A.
BFT BENEFIT SYSTEMS S.A. ALLOTMENT
MGROS MIGROS TICARET A.S
PGE PGE POLSKA GRUPA ENERGETYCZNA S.A.
PGSUS.E PEGASUS HAVA TASIMACILIGI AS
APR AUTO PARTNER SA
TBCB TBC BANK JOINT STOCK CO
TPEIR PIRAEUS BANK SA
ALPHA ALPHA BANK AE
PPC PUBLIC POWER CORPORATION S.A.
OTP OTP BANK NYRT
CAR INTER CARS S.A.
FROTO FORD OTOMOTIV SANAYI A.S.
EUR EUROCASH S.A.
ECH ECHO INVESTMENT
GSPARK GRAPHISOFT PARK SE
CPS CYFROWY POLSAT SA
MBR MO-BRUK S.A.
GPW WARSAW STOCK EXCHANGE
11B 11 BIT STUDIOS S.A.
TPE TAURON POLSKA ENERGIA S.A.
OTOEL AUTOHELLAS S.A.
VGO VIGO SYSTEM SA
WPL WIRTUALNA POLSKA HOLDING SA
BELA JUMBO S.A.
TLV BANCA TRANSILVANIA S.A.
SNG SOCIETATEA NATIONALA DE GAZE NATURALE ROMGAZ SA
H4L1 HALYK SAVINGS BANK OF KAZAKHSTAN GDR
DIGI DIGI COMMUNICATIONS NV
DNP DINO POLSKA S.A.
NBGGY NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE S.A. ADS
GEB BANK OF GEORGIA
RICHT RICHTER
M MED LIFE
SFG SPHERA FRANCHISE GROUP SA
R22 R22
ADNOCDIST ADNOC DISTRIBUTION PJSC
CGEO GEORGIA CAPITAL
SOKM SOK MARKETLER TICARET AS
EAT AMREST HOLDINGS SE
NLBR NLB GROUP
ESLT ELBIT SYSTEMS LTD
KAP NATIONAL ATOMIC COMPANY KAZATOMPROM
TEN TEN SQUARE GAMES
ALG ALLEGRO.EU SA
CZG CESKA ZBROJOVKA GROUP
KSPI KASPI KZ
INPST INPOST S.A.
HUGE HUUUGE
4IG 4IG NYRT
IGN1L IGNITIS GRUPE
PCO PEPCO GROUP NV
CTPNV CTP NV
VRC VERCOM SA
GPP GRUPA PRACUJ DA
KLKIM KALEKIM KIMYEVI MADDELER SANAYI VE TICARET AS
GIG GAMING INNOVATION GROUP
ADNOCDRILL ADNOC DRILLING CO
2381 ARABIAN DRILLING CO.
7202 ARABIAN INTERNET & COMMUNICATIONS SERVICES CO
9526 JAHEZ INTERNATIONAL CO
ELPE HELLENIQ ENERGY
SHO SHOPER SA
4071 ARABIAN CONTRACTING SERVICES CO
7203 ELM CO
OPTIMAr OPTIMA BANK S.A.
AQ AQUILA PART PROD COM
TRESTATES TRADE ESTATES REIC SA
AIRA AIR ASTANA JSC
GEV GEVORKYAN A.S.
BOCHGR BANK OF CYPRUS
ZAB ZABKA GROUP
DSPW DOOSAN SKODA POWER A.S.
DIAG DIAGNOSTYKA SA
- Research Team
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: Middle Eastern Oil Services – ADNOCDRI UH, ARABIAND AB; PL...
HEADLINES: • Middle Eastern oil services: time to switch horses (ADNOC Drilling downgraded to HOLD, Arabian Drilling upgraded to BUY) • Poland macro: Presidential election – final results and implications • 4iG: 1Q25 results review – 11% yoy increase in reported EBITDA, in line with our estimate NEUTRAL • GTC: 1Q25 – some notes, post the results • PCF Group: suspension of development works on Gemini and Bifrost, over 60 people to be laid off NEGATIVE • OMV: to sell stake in Ghasha sour gas proje...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: EBS AV; SPL PW; EME Macro/Strategy – CIS; PCF PW; ECH PW; ...
HEADLINES: • Erste Bank Group: smart leverage, strong thesis (stays BUY) • Santander Bank Polska: no such thing as plug and play in M&A (downgraded to HOLD) • EME Macro/Strategy: CIS plus – a good growth juncture, amid global policy shifts • PCF Group: 1Q25 results miss expectations, on lower portion of costs being capitalised NEGATIVE • Echo Investment (HOLD, PT PLN 3.1): 1Q25 – only a handful of deliveries means a weak P&L • Duna House: 1Q25 results– first look positive POSITIVE • DataWalk: ke...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: Polish Food Retail – DNP PW; EUR PW; JMT PL; ZAB PW; BFT P...
HEADLINES: • Polish food retail: turning the corner (initiating on Zabka with a BUY, Eurocash and Jeronimo stay BUY, Dino stays SELL) • Benefit Systems: 1Q25 adjusted EBIT up 14% yoy, 10% above our forecast POSITIVE • Grupa Pracuj: 1Q25 results – adjusted EBITDA up 11% yoy, in line with our forecast, 4% above the consensus POSITIVE • Wirtualna Polska: 1Q25 results review – adjusted EBITDA up 2% yoy, 2% above the consensus NEUTRAL • Athens Exchange Group: 1Q25 results in line with expectations NE...
EXAE HELLENIC EXCHANGES SA
OMV OMV AG
ASELS ASELSAN ELEKTRONIK SANAYI VE TICARET A.S. CLASS B
BFT BENEFIT SYSTEMS S.A. ALLOTMENT
EUR EUROCASH S.A.
OTOEL AUTOHELLAS S.A.
WPL WIRTUALNA POLSKA HOLDING SA
DNP DINO POLSKA S.A.
GPP GRUPA PRACUJ DA
ADNOCDRILL ADNOC DRILLING CO
ZAB ZABKA GROUP
- Bruno Cavalier
- Wim Gille
BEKB BEKAERT SA
DGE DIAGEO PLC
APAML APERAM SA
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
BFIT BASIC-FIT NV
RI PERNOD RICARD SA
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
RCO REMY COINTREAU SA
SBMO SBM OFFSHORE NV
UNIQA INSURANCE GROUP AG
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
LPE LAURENT-PERRIER SA
KER KERING SA
RAND RANDSTAD NV
SOLB SOLVAY SA
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
ARCAD ARCADIS NV
SLIGR SLIGRO FOOD GROUP N.V.
MONC MONCLER SPA
LIGHT SIGNIFY NV
TWEKA TKH GROUP N.V. CERT
BC BRUNELLO CUCINELLI S.P.A.
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
CSM CORBION NV
INX IMCD N.V.
TRP TERAPLAST
AD KONINKLIJKE AHOLD DELHAIZE N.V.
ASML ASML HOLDING NV
BESI BE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES N.V.
ALFEN ALFEN NV
TOM2 TOMTOM NV
DSC1 DUTCH STAR C SHAR
CPR DAVIDE CAMPARI-MILANO N.V.
FAST FASTNED
INPST INPOST S.A.
- Bruno Cavalier
- Wim Gille
BEKB BEKAERT SA
DGE DIAGEO PLC
APAML APERAM SA
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
BFIT BASIC-FIT NV
RI PERNOD RICARD SA
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
RCO REMY COINTREAU SA
SBMO SBM OFFSHORE NV
UNIQA INSURANCE GROUP AG
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
LPE LAURENT-PERRIER SA
KER KERING SA
RAND RANDSTAD NV
SOLB SOLVAY SA
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
ARCAD ARCADIS NV
SLIGR SLIGRO FOOD GROUP N.V.
MONC MONCLER SPA
LIGHT SIGNIFY NV
TWEKA TKH GROUP N.V. CERT
BC BRUNELLO CUCINELLI S.P.A.
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
CSM CORBION NV
INX IMCD N.V.
TRP TERAPLAST
AD KONINKLIJKE AHOLD DELHAIZE N.V.
ASML ASML HOLDING NV
BESI BE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES N.V.
ALFEN ALFEN NV
TOM2 TOMTOM NV
DSC1 DUTCH STAR C SHAR
CPR DAVIDE CAMPARI-MILANO N.V.
FAST FASTNED
INPST INPOST S.A.
- Daniela Popov
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: DSPW CP; KTY PW; HTO GA; EME Strategy – FTSE; PCF PW
HEADLINES: • Doosan Skoda Power: dividend proposal of CZK 9.76/share, 3.0% dividend yield NEGATIVE • Kety: proposal to pay total dividend of PLN 544.8m, or a DPS of PLN 55.78 and a 6.7% dividend yield NEUTRAL • OTE: spins off towers business, at a valuation of EUR 633m NEUTRAL • EME Strategy: FTSE GEIS June 2025 quarterly review • PCF Group: 1Q25E preview – flat yoy EBITDA expected (due on 29 May) • Short News (KRU, WINE)
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: G2M SS; CZG CP; MBR PW; CPS PW; TPE PW; ESLT IT; EXAE GA; ...
HEADLINES: • Gentoo Media: one step back, two steps forward (stays BUY) • Colt CZ Group SE: 1Q25 results – strong beat, no change in guidance POSITIVE • Mo-BRUK: 1Q25 earnings call – management optimistic on 2H25E, but we see challenges NEGATIVE • Cyfrowy Polsat: key takeaways from the 1Q25 earnings call NEUTRAL • Tauron: 1Q25 conference call highlights NEUTRAL • Elbit Systems: raises USD 512m on the Nasdaq POSITIVE • Athens Exchange Group: 1Q25E preview (due on 26 May) • Motor Oil Hellas: 1Q25E...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: VGO PW; PGE PW; 11B PW; DNP PW; KRKG SV; GEV CP; ELPE GA; ...
HEADLINES: • VIGO Photonics: top Polish defence industry exposure (downgraded to HOLD) • PGE: strong 1Q25 recurring EBITDA, 26% above our expectations POSITIVE • 11 bit studios: weak 1Q25, misses our forecast, on higher opex NEGATIVE • Dino: 2-7% EBITDA beats in 1Q25 NEUTRAL • Krka: 1Q25 – record net profit, on high FX revaluation gains POSITIVE • GEVORKYAN: strong 1Q25 - EBITDA 15% above our expectations, but 2025E guidance implies an EBITDA margin contraction POSITIVE • HELLENiQ Energy: 1Q25 r...
- Szabolcs Pal
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: OPTIMA GA; PKO PW; SOKM TI; RICHT HB; ARABIAND AB; TPE PW;...
HEADLINES: • Optima Bank: a touch of Midas, none of Icarus (BUY - initiation of coverage) • PKO BP: solid 1Q25 results, in line with expectations NEUTRAL • Sok Marketler Ticaret: 1Q25 results – significant miss NEGATIVE • Richter: 1Q25 results in line NEUTRAL • Arabian Drilling: 1Q25 results NEUTRAL • Tauron: 1Q25 preliminary EBITDA 16% above our expectations POSITIVE • Kaspi.kz: 1Q25 highlights; 2025E guidance revised down NEGATIVE • Bank of Cyprus: 1Q25 results highlights • Zabka (NOT RATED): ...
- Jonathan Lamb
European Oil and Gas Monthly: April 2025 – falling crude, spoils the m...
Brent crude prices swooned in April: the combined impact of demand worries and projected supply increases pulling average prices down USD 5/bbl, to the lowest monthly average in more than three years. We question the sustainability of such low prices, given the market reactions in the past. The WOOD benchmark strengthened in April, due mainly to better petrol cracks, as we move towards driving season. Petrochemicals remain in the doldrums, despite lower input costs.
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