reports
- Baptiste Salaville
- Ghada Ben Sedrine
- Nicolas David
- Thomas Zlowodzki
- Baptiste Salaville
- Ghada Ben Sedrine
- Nicolas David
- Thomas Zlowodzki
- Cor Kluis
- ING Helpdesk
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
Ageas: Circling around Direct Line, Aviva edges ahead. D'Ieteren: TVH distribution footprint restructured in Belgium. Dutch insurance - Achmea Life JV with PE firm, aiming to take 20% of Dutch buyouts. Elia: FY24 guidance up. Prosus: 1H25 Preview. Renewi: Macquarie is back. Sif Group: First monopile rolls out of new factory
- Guy Sips
- Jacob Mekhael
- Kristof Samoy
- Lynn Hautekeete
- Michiel Declercq
- Sharad Kumar S.P
- Thibault Leneeuw
- Thomas Couvreur
- Thomas Vranken
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
Dynamic Top Pick List Update November 2024 – Adding Azelis – Removing ...
With 2 changes in our Dynamic Top Pick list (we add Azelis and we remove Solvay) we maintain a defensive stance on the market for 2H24. The long anticipated interest rate cuts by central banks have finally started. The Trump election victory in the US does not bode well for European stocks as he favours a protectionist course. Although industrial companies with a US base could actually benefit. Cleantech names with exposure to the US could also suffer (unless owned by E.Musk). We expect the US ...
BEKB BEKAERT SA
ABN ABN AMRO BANK NV DEPOSITARY RECEIPTS
FAGR FAGRON SA
EVS EVS BROADCAST EQUIPMENT SA
XIOR XIOR STUDENT HOUSING N.V.
SOLB SOLVAY SA
COFB COFINIMMO SA
DIE D'IETEREN SA
SOF SOFINA SA
IBAB ION BEAM APPLICATIONS SA
ACKB ACKERMANS & VAN HAAREN NV
KIN KINEPOLIS GROUP NV
NN NN GROUP N.V.
TINC TINC COMM. VA
FUR FUGRO NV
AZE AZELIS GROUP NV
SYENS SYENSQO
- Guy Sips
- Jacob Mekhael
- Kristof Samoy
- Lynn Hautekeete
- Michiel Declercq
- Sharad Kumar S.P
- Thibault Leneeuw
- Thomas Couvreur
- Thomas Vranken
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
Dynamic Top Pick List Update October 2024 – Adding NN Group
We maintain a defensive stance on the market for 2H24. The long anticipated expectations for interest rate cuts by central banks will finally come to pass. The election fever in the US is reaching boiling point and the conversations are becoming more polarised than before. Also corporate profit growth in Europe slows and the French elections have cast a negative spell. In Germany by-elections in the Eastern part showed a shift to extreme right and left that will make budget decisions even more ...
BEKB BEKAERT SA
ABN ABN AMRO BANK NV DEPOSITARY RECEIPTS
FAGR FAGRON SA
EVS EVS BROADCAST EQUIPMENT SA
XIOR XIOR STUDENT HOUSING N.V.
SOLB SOLVAY SA
COFB COFINIMMO SA
DIE D'IETEREN SA
SOF SOFINA SA
IBAB ION BEAM APPLICATIONS SA
ACKB ACKERMANS & VAN HAAREN NV
KIN KINEPOLIS GROUP NV
NN NN GROUP N.V.
TINC TINC COMM. VA
FUR FUGRO NV
SYENS SYENSQO
- ING Helpdesk
- Michiel Declercq
- Thomas Couvreur
- Thomas Vranken
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- Jason Kalamboussis
NN Group/Tighter path to higher yield pastures/BUY
While most buyouts due to the Dutch pension reform will come in 2026-27, with an expectation of €10bn of AuMs (NN's fair share), the Solvency 2 ratio may struggle to go much beyond the 200% to 2027 without markets help. With a capital generation showing some bright spots (Insurance EU, Non-Life) but also some only temporary supports (Bank, RE, Japan), we expect it not to provide significant surprises in the near term. The long-term picture, however, for the Dutch sector brightens with pension re...
- Cor Kluis
NN Group : 1H24 Solvency in line, OCG/FCF better but targets unchanged
>Conclusion: 1H24 Solvency in line, OCG/FCF better but targets unchanged - The end-1H24 Solvency ratio was in line with our expectations supported by the strong NL housing market. For Q3 the equity/rate/real estate market impact is quite neutral for the S2 ratio, and we estimate the S2 ratio to rise to 198% by end-2024. The years after the S2 ratio will grow further by the retained capital generation. This retained capital generation can be offset by the NL pension bu...
- ING Helpdesk
- Cor Kluis
NN Group : Solvency, OCG, FCF somewhat better, guidance unchanged, non...
>Conclusion: Solvency, OCG and FCF somewhat better, guidance unchanged - The 1H24 Solvency, OCG and FCF were all marginally better than expected. Their future guidance for OCG and FCF remain unchanged. In total we expect some outperformance of the share price today. We keep our Outperformance recommendation. This residential house effect on Solvency and the good non-life combined ratio are also good for a.s.r. as well.1H24 Solvency better than consensus a...
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Thomas Couvreur
- Wim Lewi
- Luis de Toledo Heras
BMW BAYERISCHE MOTOREN WERKE AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
FP TOTAL SE
GET GETLINK SE
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
DG VINCI SA
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
RNO RENAULT SA
DAI DAIMLER AG
ERIC B TELEFONAKTIEBOLAGET LM ERICSSON CLASS B
RHM RHEINMETALL AG
ENI ENI S.P.A.
VOW3 VOLKSWAGEN AG PREF
REP REPSOL SA
ENG ENAGAS SA
BC BRUNELLO CUCINELLI S.P.A.
NN NN GROUP N.V.
RACE FERRARI NV
AD KONINKLIJKE AHOLD DELHAIZE N.V.
BHP BHP GROUP LTD
BP. BP P.L.C.
SIK SIKA AG
AML ASTON MARTIN LAGONDA GLOBAL HOLDINGS
STLA STELLANTIS N.V.
SHEL SHELL PLC
P911 DR. ING. H.C. F. PORSCHE AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
- Luis de Toledo Heras
BMW BAYERISCHE MOTOREN WERKE AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
FP TOTAL SE
GET GETLINK SE
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
DG VINCI SA
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
RNO RENAULT SA
DAI DAIMLER AG
ERIC B TELEFONAKTIEBOLAGET LM ERICSSON CLASS B
RHM RHEINMETALL AG
ENI ENI S.P.A.
VOW3 VOLKSWAGEN AG PREF
REP REPSOL SA
ENG ENAGAS SA
BC BRUNELLO CUCINELLI S.P.A.
NN NN GROUP N.V.
RACE FERRARI NV
AD KONINKLIJKE AHOLD DELHAIZE N.V.
BHP BHP GROUP LTD
BP. BP P.L.C.
SIK SIKA AG
AML ASTON MARTIN LAGONDA GLOBAL HOLDINGS
STLA STELLANTIS N.V.
SHEL SHELL PLC
P911 DR. ING. H.C. F. PORSCHE AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
- Cor Kluis
NN Group : Solvency 2 ratio decline somewhat to 193% by end 1H24, OCG ...
>Conclusion: S2 ratio decline somewhat to 193% by end 1H24, OCG of € 900m - For end 1H24 we expect the group Solvency 2 (S2) ratio to decline marginally to 193% (from 197% end 2023) driven by one-off earlier highlighted items and temporary sovereign spread widenings. We estimate a good OCG of € 900m for 1H24, and they already guided an OCG of € 1.8bn for FY24. Operationally in non-life P&C the combined ratio is likely to be somewhat higher by more fires/weather claims...
- Baptiste Salaville
- Bruno Cavalier
- Jean Danjou
BMW BAYERISCHE MOTOREN WERKE AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
SSAB A SSAB AB CLASS A
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
VNA VONOVIA SE
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
MONC MONCLER SPA
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
NN NN GROUP N.V.
HLAG HAPAG-LLOYD AG
- Baptiste Salaville
- Bruno Cavalier
- Gerardo Ibanez
- Steven Boumans
BMW BAYERISCHE MOTOREN WERKE AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
LI KLEPIERRE SA
COV COVIVIO SA
GFC GECINA SA
SSAB A SSAB AB CLASS A
NXI NEXITY SA CLASS A
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
FLY SOCIETE FONCIERE LYONNAISE SA
GYC GRAND CITY PROPERTIES SA
MERY MERCIALYS SA
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
WHA WERELDHAVE N.V.
INTO INTERVEST OFFICES & WAREHOUSES SA
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KOF KAUFMAN & BROAD SA
KER KERING SA
ALTA ALTAREA SCA
VNA VONOVIA SE
XIOR XIOR STUDENT HOUSING N.V.
DEQ DEUTSCHE EUROSHOP AG
ICAD ICADE SA
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
COFB COFINIMMO SA
VASTN VASTNED RETAIL NV
TEG TAG IMMOBILIEN AG
PSPN PSP SWISS PROPERTY AG
SPSN SWISS PRIME SITE AG
PAT PATRIZIA AG
MONT MONTEA SCA
AED AEDIFICA SA
CARM CARMILA SAS
LEG LEG IMMOBILIEN AG
MONC MONCLER SPA
CPINV CARE PROPERTY INVEST SA
ARG ARGAN SA
VGP VGP NV
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
COL INMOBILIARIA COLONIAL SOCIMI SA
DIC DIC ASSET AG
LRE LAR ESPANA REAL ESTATE SOCIMI SA
NN NN GROUP N.V.
MERLIN MERLIN PROPERTIES SOCIMI S.A.
DKG DEUTSCHE KONSUM REIT-AG
HLAG HAPAG-LLOYD AG
HOME NEINOR HOMES SA
AT1 AROUNDTOWN SA
MVC METROVACESA SA
NSI NSI N.V.
ULA UNIBAIL-RODAMCO-WESTFIELD SE STAPLED SECS CONS OF 1 SH UNIBAIL RODAMCO + 1 SH WFD UNIB ROD
INS INSTONE REAL ESTATE GROUP AG
AEDAS AEDAS HOMES SA
WDP WAREHOUSES DE PAUW SCA
ECMPA EUROCOMMERCIAL PROPERTIES NV
CTPNV CTP NV
SHUR SHURGARD SELF STORAGE LIMITED
- Cor Kluis
NN Group : Better OCG, FCF, SBB, dividend, & pension buyouts improved ...
>Conclusion: Better OCG, FCF, SBB, div, & pension buyouts improved positioning - NN Group had put much information in its FY23 results: good results, increasing multiple targets and increased its recurring SBB. End 2023 its solvency was better than expected, and we expect it to rise to 203% by end 2024 and to 210% by end 2025. The S2 ratio sensitivity rose for real estate, equity and mortgages, but the hybrid actions YTD24 are improving these sensitivities/tiering res...
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