>Conclusion: Better OCG, FCF, SBB, div, & pension buyouts improved positioning - NN Group had put much information in its FY23 results: good results, increasing multiple targets and increased its recurring SBB. End 2023 its solvency was better than expected, and we expect it to rise to 203% by end 2024 and to 210% by end 2025. The S2 ratio sensitivity rose for real estate, equity and mortgages, but the hybrid actions YTD24 are improving these sensitivities/tiering res...
>Conclusion: S2 better, cap return better, OCG/FCF targets increased - The end 2023 Solvency ratio was better than expected, albeit that the S2 ratio sensitivities become somewhat higher. The OCG/FCF targets for FY25 were increased, and consequently also the capital return to shareholders has been increased incl. a higher recurring SBB. The 2H23 OCG was higher but the non-life combined ratio claim were somewhat higher than expected. We keep our Outperform recommendati...
AB InBev: A Bit Light, Bud. Ackermans & van Haaren: Core units AM/Banks and DEME. Adecco: Beats by 17% on 4Q23 EBITA; outlook solid. Air France-KLM: Peak reached already? Allfunds Group PLC: MoreFunds. ASR: 2H23 squeezed between two CMDs, no surprises. Belgian telecoms: Digi to launch convergent offers in Belgium. CM.com: FY23 results, EBITDA positive in 2H23. Fugro: Strong? Excellent!. NN Group: FY23 better, modest 2025 targets, capital distribution strategy better. Recticel...
We host our 27th ODDO BHF Forum in Lyon in 11th and 12th January 2024 and virtually 15th and 16th January 2024. In total, 335 companies will be presenting. In the following note, we provide some initial feedback of the company on the last day (day 4). - ...
We host our 27th ODDO BHF Forum in Lyon in 11th and 12th January 2024 and virtually 15th and 16th January 2024. In total, 335 companies will be presenting. In the following note, we provide some initial feedback of the company on the last day (day 4). - ...
>Conclusion: End 2H23 S2 193% and OCG 836m in 2H23, S2 200% end 2024 - For end 4Q23 we expect the group Solvency 2 ratio to be 193% (or 198% excl. the uneconomic temporary mortgage volatility). We estimate that this S2 ratio will be 200% end 2024 and 202% end 2025. We estimate a good OCG of € 836m for 2H23, being at the top end of their guided range. NN announced a double-digit step-up of the dividend per share being at least € 3.07 dividend over FY23 meaning a final ...
>Conclusion: Woekerpolis settled for less cost than expected, TP increased - Yesterday evening NN Group announced its settlement for the Woekerpolis misselling case. The settlement was expected, but they settled it for less cost than we expected which is positive for NN Group. Consequently we increase our target price to € 48 (from € 46) and keep our Outperform recommendation. The company guided that their Solvency 2 ratio of NN Life will be about 187% end 4Q23 (or 19...
Ageas: Debt issue by YE23 boosts China Solvency. Eurocommercial Properties: Unsurprising Woluwe Shopping Center expansion issues. Fugro: Two more geotechnical vessels acquired. IBA: Nice new Proteus One contract in Poland. NN Group: Longevity deals (+8%) vs Mortgage spreads (-8%). Philips: Another recall hurts sentiment. Recticel: Breaking into PIR Insulated Panels with the acquisition of REX. Van Lanschot Kempen: Accuro acquisition, bolt-ons in Belgium to accelerate
>Conclusion: Positive longevity transaction, S2 ratio only temporary pressure - The announced longevity transaction is positive for NN Group. This also gives room to settle the Woekerpolis case soon. Further the S2 update will trigger the market to make their Solvency 2 estimates for end 2023 which will be temporary pressured by the volatile mortgage spreads but we consider this as temporary and to be solved soon in January/February so we have an estimated S2 ratio of...
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