Orkla ASA: 1 director

A director at Orkla ASA bought 12,500 shares at 78.995NOK and the significance rating of the trade was 67/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly sho...

Orkla (Hold, TP: NOK81.00) - Signs of light

Orkla’s Q1 results were slightly above consensus, with positive developments in volume and gross margin. Nevertheless, we reiterate our HOLD and NOK81 target price, as we continue to find the valuation fair, and we have made only minor estimate revisions.

Orkla (Hold, TP: NOK81.00) - Q1 slightly above consensus

We consider this a slightly positive report, including figures above consensus on higher-than-expected organic growth, a slight contribution-margin improvement, and no significant change in outlook. We expect 1–2% positive revisions to consensus 2024e adj. EBIT, and believe a slightly positive share price reaction is warranted.

Garmin Q1: 24% growth in Wearables

Logitech: higher demand, low inventory

Essity Aktiebolag (publ): 1 director

A director at Essity Aktiebolag (publ) bought 12,008 shares at 273.140SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 82/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two y...

Modern Times Group AB: 3 directors

Three Directors at Modern Times Group AB bought/maiden bought 3,152 shares at 6.574SEK. The significance rating of the trade was 51/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the ...

Aker Solutions (Hold, TP: NOK40.00) - Probably dead money for a while

Despite Q1 EBITDA 25% above consensus (but in line with our estimate) and 2024e EBITDA c10% higher on updated guidance, we struggle to get excited about the story. The investment case suffers from a lack of financial details for the OneSubsea JV, which we believe investors would need to support a higher valuation. Meanwhile, a forecast working capital unwind and weak cash transition would probably be in focus. We also sense growing concern about the 2026+ outlook as Norway projects end, and back...

Dexcom: inventory remains high

Essity (Buy, TP: SEK330.00) - Financial targets up next

The solid Q1 results were aided by the ongoing gross margin recovery, YOY and QOQ. We expect investor focus from here to be on whether Essity can offset rising raw material costs through agility and pricing power. We see new financial targets and capital allocations as the next potential share-price catalysts; we reiterate our BUY and have edged up our target price to SEK330 (325).

Pulp fiction in Q1, reality for Q2

Stronger performance than expected

Revenue and margin beat in Q1, and '24 guidance up on good visibility. Dividends will come — BUY

MTG (Buy, TP: SEK120.00) - Profitable growth and buybacks

We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK120, following a >10% earnings beat in Q1. MTG gave a cautious revenue growth outlook for 2024 (+1-5% YOY) but with positive adj. EBITDA margin guidance (26–29%). It announced SEK100m of buybacks, with more likely to come following the AGM on 16 May. We have raised our 2024–2025e EBITDA by c3% and continue to like the MTG story, with market growth, good cost control and the ~SEK3bn net cash position.

Essity (Buy, TP: SEK325.00) - Good Q2, but no buybacks

We consider this a positive report for Essity, with Q1 adj. EBITA 10% above consensus, mainly driven by a strong gross margin. That said, no financial targets or buybacks following the Vinda transaction were announced, and we expect any conference call comments to be in focus. We expect consensus 2024e adj. EBITA to come up c2% on the results and expect a positive share price reaction.

Out of the woods

We lift '24e sales by 11% and '25e by 5%. Further upside to '25-'26e: estimates still imply revenues below historical trend. BUY: TP up to NOK 135 (125)

SLAB Q1: positive Q2 outlook

Aker Solutions (Hold, TP: NOK40.00) - Cash conversion in focus for 202...

We forecast Q1 EBITDA well above (28%) consensus, as we expect projects to reach profit recognition milestones, temporarily boosting margins. However, a working capital unwind is set to start in 2024 – likely as soon as Q1 – resulting in weak cash conversion and cash flow from operations. Following the partial sale of its subsea business, the investment case suffers from a lack of financial details for the OneSubsea JV, which we believe would be needed for investors to underwrite a higher valuat...

Q2 guidance 20-40% above

DNB Bank ASA: 1 director

A director at DNB Bank ASA bought 6,000 shares at 205.710NOK and the significance rating of the trade was 57/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly ...

Limited change in EP spending

After reviewing oil companies’ most recent spending plans, we estimate offshore spending growth of c7% YOY for 2024, in line with our November update. Growth is concentrated, with Petrobras being the key driver, favouring service companies with Brazil exposure. Looking ahead, further spending growth is likely to be partly limited by total spending already being on a par with operating cash flow. Delayed energy transition spending is seen as positive for oil services, while recent E&P consolidati...