HEADLINES: • CEZ: government may try to include support for coal plants in draft gas bill NEUTRAL • Wizz Air: extends compensation agreement with PW until YE26 NEUTRAL • mBank: sees PLN 907m of FX mortgage saga costs in 4Q24E NEUTRAL • Mo-BRUK: update on increased fees in Wałbrzych for 2018 NEUTRAL • Wirtualna Polska: agrees to acquire Invia Group for c.EUR 240m POSITIVE • Huuuge Games: December bookings estimate jumps by 18% mom, to USD 13m POSITIVE • Ten Square Games: December bookings estimat...
We put our coverage of the following stocks UNDER REVIEW, with immediate effect: Fondul Proprietatea Globalworth Ignitis Group Philip Morris Piraeus Port Authority We caution against using the forecasts, ratings and price target guidance issued previously on these stocks.
Supply has re-emerged as a key theme to start the year, while sentiment has been mixed amid renewed volatility in core rates. In this environment, we would prefer to be positioned in higher-quality names that have either issued already or shown spread weakness in anticipation of supply.
EME Equity Market – October 2023 Market performance – election results prompt stellar market reaction in Poland; sell-off in Turkey. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 1.7% mom in EUR terms and 2.0% mom in USD in October. Poland staged a massive rebound, post the elections, with the WIG20 advancing 16.4% mom in EUR terms. Apart from Turkey, where October was a sell-off, with the ISE30 declining 13.7% mom in EUR terms, there were relatively muted performances everywhere else (BUX +2.1% / PX +0.4% / B...
HEADLINES: • Purcari Wineries: growth uninterrupted (stays BUY) • Otokar: 3Q23 - strong beat, with accelerated deliveries and improved sales mix POSITIVE • Orange Polska: 3Q23 results - EBITDAaL up 2% yoy, in line with the consensus NEUTRAL • Kaspi.kz: 3Q23 highlights - strong quarter, with a boost from the marketplace POSITIVE • TeraPlast: 3Q23 results in line, FY23E EBITDA guidance lowered NEUTRAL • Polish banks: current government preparing draft bill on credit holiday extension into 2024E ...
HEADLINES: • LPP: heart of steel (stays BUY) • PGE: new 2030 strategy - more aggressive capex targets • Bank Handlowy: strong 2Q23 results; presents plan to support Tier 1 ratio and keep DPS rich NEUTRAL • Dom Development: 2Q23 - GPM still around 30%, as if the challenging last year did not happen POSITIVE • Motor Oil Hellas: 2Q23 results - refining segment weaker than expected • Enea: 2Q23 prelims - 44% EBITDA beat driven by distribution POSITIVE • Globalworth: preliminary 1H23 results NEUT...
3 March 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment objective...
EME Equity Market – October 2022 Market performance – in a positive month across the board, Turkey outperforms yet again. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced by 12.7% mom in EUR terms and 14.4% mom in USD. The ISE30 was, once again, the best-performing index in our coverage, adding 23.4% mom in EUR terms and 25.2% in local currency terms. All the other indices recorded positive performances as well, with the WIG (+14.8% EUR / 11.5% lcl), the BUX (+11.4% EUR / 8.5% lcl) and the ASE (+10.3% EUR) del...
HEADLINES: • Turkish banks: shifting sands (Akbank, Garanti Bank, Isbank and Yapi Kredi downgraded to SELL) • Krka: integrated model underpins steady returns (BUY) • Bank Millennium: books a PLN 1bn net loss in 3Q22, but underlying profitability at peak levels NEUTRAL • Arcelik: 3Q22 results - bottom line misses expectations NEUTRAL • Turkish banks: banking watchdog tightens requirements on Lira borrowers • CCC: new share issue extended by institutional investors POSITIVE • Cyfrowy Polsat: to...
HEADLINES: • CEE real estate: a write-down handbook - rising yields to weigh on real estate values • Wirtualna Polska: strong 2Q22, with adjusted EBITDA up 21% yoy, 4% above our estimate NEUTRAL • 4iG: intends to buy Vodafone Hungary jointly with the Hungarian State POSITIVE • Banca Transilvania: issues new shares; new price target at RON 30 • DataWalk: issues 246,940 shares for PLN 155/share NEUTRAL • Hellenic Petroleum: 2Q22E results preview (due on 25 August) • Banca Transilvania: 2Q22E re...
The ECB’s rate hikes are pushing up the cost of capital across the Eurozone. This is, in turn, likely to drive up real estate yields, in our view. While the impact on values should be mitigated partly by indexation, given the challenging macro backdrop ahead, we believe that the rents in most of the sub-sectors of European real estate are likely to trail inflation when contracts are being renewed, or when new tenants are brought in. In this report, we recap some of the structural trends in offic...
EME Equity Market – September 2021 Market performance – Turkish equities performed the worst, followed by Greek stocks. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced 4.5% in EUR terms and 2.4% in USD terms in September. Turkey’s ISE30 Index declined by 9.7% in EUR terms and lost 5.2% in TRY terms, while the Greek ASE Index declined 6.3% in EUR terms. In Poland, the WIG20 Index declined by 4.3% in EUR terms and 2.4% in local currency. The Hungarian BUX Index fell by 1.3% in EUR terms, but advanced 1.7% in lo...
HEADLINES: • Globalworth: 1H21 in line with preliminaries, reflecting difficult leasing market backdrop • Cyfrowy Polsat: announces tender to control 100% of its shares in cooperation with main shareholder POSITIVE • Allegro: Aliexpress intensifying promo activity in Poland NEGATIVE • CD Projekt: to increase number of employees by c.20% annually NEUTRAL • Short News (FMF, RO Macro)
Globalworth’s 1H21 earnings were weak, in line with what the preliminary results suggested. The CEE office markets remain difficult, on a combination of weak leasing demand and the continuing supply of space. Still, trading at nearly a 30% discount to NAV, we believe Globalworth looks good value at the current levels. Some discount is likely to be appropriate, given the weak liquidity and the low visibility on the future strategic direction, with a potential management and supervisory board resh...
HEADLINES: • NLB Group: growth and dividend combo (stays BUY) • Globalworth: headwinds priced in, bid could drive upside (upgraded to BUY) • Aegean Airlines: 2Q21 - encouraging comments on outlook, fleet transition accelerated POSITIVE • EME Macro/Strategy: the energy price problem • EMEA Airlines: fully-vaccinated passengers to be allowed to fly to the US from November POSITIVE • CEZ: government considering subsidies against impact of rising energy prices NEUTRAL • Rosneft: government genera...
Since our downgrade to a HOLD in July 2021, after the EUR 7/share takeover offer period closed, Globalworth’s shares have declined some 13%. CPI and Aroundtown now jointly hold a c.60% stake. With the additional c.30% held by Growthpoint, the liquidity is predictably weak. The CEE office markets remain difficult, on a combination of weak leasing demand and the continuing supply of space. At 0.78x P/B and a 5.3% FFO yield on our 2021E, it seems that the headwinds are largely priced in, and Global...
EME Equity Market – July 2021 Market performance – Turkish ISE30 Index gains 6.0% in July, while Russian MOEX declines by 1.9%. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined 1.1% in EUR terms and 1.0% in USD terms in July, despite most of the followed sub-indices being in the black. The best-performing equity market was in Turkey, which added 6.0% in EUR terms and 2.6% in TRY terms, followed by the Czech PX Index, which gained 4.9% in both EUR and CZK terms. The Hungarian BUX Index added 1.1% in EUR and 2.9...
A director at Globalworth Real Estate Investments Limited sold after exercising options/sold 18,500 shares at 7.000EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 56/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by al...
HEADLINES: • Huuuge Games: play to win (BUY - initiation of coverage) • Globalworth: bigger boys and stolen sweethearts (downgraded to HOLD) • mBank: creates PLN 248.4m of FX mortgage litigation risk provisions • Eurocash: closing 59 own stores at a cost of PLN 80m NEGATIVE • Bank Handlowy: to pay a PLN 1.2/share dividend from the 2020 net profit NEUTRAL • Santander Bank Polska: may pay out up to 30% of 2020 net profit as a dividend NEUTRAL • PGNiG: operating estimates for 2Q21E, strong sales...
Globalworth has returned some 42% since we upgraded it to BUY in September 2020. The investment demand for quality offices in CEE continues to outstrip supply, supporting pricing. Still, there is limited visibility on occupiers’ office requirements, going forward, and we are seeing pressure on vacancy and effective rent levels in both Bucharest and key Polish cities, driven by the completion of the developments launched before the pandemic. This could translate into further pressure on valuation...
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