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Martijn Den Drijver
  • Martijn Den Drijver
Maxime Stranart
  • Maxime Stranart

Colruyt/FY guidance reiterated despite weaker 1H25-26/BUY

We reiterate our BUY rating on Colruyt but lower our target price from €44 to €38 following Colruyt's 1H25/26F results, which came in below expectations at the operating profit level. While we note management's confident tone during its conference call, we reduce our EBIT forecast by 3.6% for FY25/26F, implying that we now sit roughly 2% below company-guidance. We expect Sunday openings as of January 2026, as well as a strong price position in Belgium to benefit top-line growth over the next eig...

Stijn Demeester
  • Stijn Demeester

Umicore/Metals prices melt-up drives earnings upgrade/HOLD

We raise our 2025F-26F estimates for Umicore on the back of higher precious and platinum group metals prices, with our estimates for the battery materials business broadly unchanged. We raise our target price from €10 to €19 per share, driven by higher estimates and peer multiples, yet maintain our HOLD recommendation. Umicore shares have rallied +85% over the last year, largely driven by the melt-up in metals prices, although its earnings power in 2026F is likely moderated by elevated hedging l...

Umicore S.A.: 1 director

A director at Umicore S.A. bought 1,000 shares at 18.460EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 52/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly s...

Hilde Van Boxstael ... (+6)
  • Hilde Van Boxstael
  • Jacob Mekhael
  • Livio Luyten
  • Lynn Hautekeete
  • Wim Hoste
  • Wim Lewi
Wim Hoste
  • Wim Hoste

Umicore Walking on Sunshine - increasing target price to € 21

We upgrade our forecasts for the coming years with our 2030E adjusted EBITDA estimate upped by c. 8%. Loosening EU standards on CO2 emission regulation for cars & vans provide some additional support to the Catalysts business, whilst we have kept our forecasts for Battery Materials unchanged as these were already below the company's CMD targets and upside to our numbers will have to come from new supply arrangements/partnerships. The very strong metal price environment will most likely allow Umi...

Michiel Declercq
  • Michiel Declercq

Colruyt 1H25/26 disappoints, outlook reiterated, but with caution

Although Colruyt already flagged during the AGM that the operating result in 1H25/26 would be lower, the -15.8% EBIT decline in 1H25/26 to € 213m came in below our estimates (kbcse: € 230m). While Colruyt still banks on a stable operating result and net profit for FY25/26, the group did highlight that the situation has become more complicated following the ongoing price and promo pressure, increased Sunday openings, abolition of the mandatory closing day and uneven level playing field in labour ...

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Colruyt: Guidance reiterated despite weaker-than-expected 1H25/26. Dutch Pension Buyouts: Regulator DNB's view, c.€7bn so far, insurers at 15% market share now. OCI: Dutch investor association VEB and other shareholders take legal action to block Orascom merger. Proximus: CFO Mark Reid to leave Proximus by end of January 2026. Staffing Sector: US temp volume YoY declined vs October; NFP jobs beat expectations. Var Energy: Boosting production bodes well for years to come. Events Calendar

Wim Hoste
  • Wim Hoste

Umicore EU looks set to abandon combustion engine ban in 2035

Based on various press articles, it seems increasingly likely that the European Union is to abandon the earlier agreed ban on new combustion engine-based passenger cars by 2035, whilst new legislation would still require a significant reduction of tailpipe emissions. Any loosening of legislation would probably be good news for Umicore's Catalysts business, with European ICE Light duty Automotive Catalysts' revenue representing c. 28% of total ICE light duty Automotive Catalysts' revenue. We awai...

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Arcadis: New CEO, new wind?. Colruyt: Job protection plan approved by authorities. Colruyt: Preview 1H25/26. IMCD: New CFO announced.

Hilde Van Boxstael ... (+8)
  • Hilde Van Boxstael
  • Jacob Mekhael
  • Kristof Samoy
  • Livio Luyten
  • Mathijs Geerts Danau
  • Michiel Declercq
  • Thibault Leneeuw
  • Wim Lewi
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