Embla Medical (Buy, TP: DKK34.00) - All eyes on tariffs

We expect a slower start to the year than previously, but a likely decent Q1 EBITDA margin, helped by last year’s cost cutting and product mix. We expect the focus to be on potential tariff effects, where we estimate a 10–15% hit on EPS mainly related to Bracing & Support (B&S) produced in China and sold to the US. We reiterate our BUY, but have reduced our target price to DKK34 (39).

It's a marathon, not a sprint

Terminating coverage

On healthy footing into 2025

Embla Medical (Buy, TP: DKK39.00) - Mixed Q4, 2025e Medicare tailwind

Q4 results were mixed, with organic growth slightly below consensus. The EBITDA margin was largely in line, helped by a better gross margin, while higher net financials (due to FX) led to a c16% EPS miss. The 2025 guidance was largely as expected, although tailwinds from Medicare changes and recent product launches could provide upside potential, we believe. We reiterate our BUY and DKK39 target price.

Q4 6% below, but Embla on strong footing

Embla in good shape going into 2025

Embla Medical (Buy, TP: DKK39.00) - Q4 facing tough comparables

The company is facing tough Q4 comparables and we see limited tailwind so far from the recent Medicare reimbursement reform. We expect it to guide for 2025 organic revenue growth of 5–8%, versus its long-term guidance of 5–7%, some potential upside from Medicare changes, and continued EBITDA margin improvement. We reiterate our BUY and DKK39 target price.

Q3 underpins positive momentum into 2025

Embla Medical (Buy, TP: DKK39.00) - Momentum remains strong

Q3 organic revenue growth of c7% YOY was largely in line with expectations and at the high end of the long-term guidance of 5–7% despite end-market headwinds. We believe growth could strengthen further in 2025 and beyond, helped by the recent US Medicare expanded coverage. The Q3 report also showed the EBITDA margin continuing to improve faster than we expected. We reiterate our BUY and DKK39 target price.

Q3 hits the right spots

All eyes on US in Q3

Tailwinds and low guidance bode well for H2

6% organic growth despite headwinds in major markets. Strong margins highlight low guidance into H2. EPS +3-6%, FVR hiked to DKK 27-40 (25-38).

Embla Medical (Buy, TP: DKK39.00) - Momentum looks to be building

Embla Medical’s Q2 top line was mixed, but overall largely in line at c6% organic growth YOY. What really stood out was the stronger-than-expected EBITDA margin thanks to cost-reduction initiatives implemented during Q1, leading the company to narrow its FY guidance to the top end. Combined with recent product launches and the upcoming positive reimbursement changes in the US, we expect momentum to build into H2 and 2025. We reiterate our BUY and DKK39 target price.

Strong Q2 despite US sluggishness

Positive Medicare coverage expansion

Embla Medical (Buy, TP: DKK39.00) - Awaiting Medicare update

We expect Q2 organic growth to be largely in line with Q1’s, and as H1 headwinds should have improved by H2 and given the timing of new product launches, we believe Embla Medical is on track to meet or exceed the high end of its 2024 guidance. By the time of the Q2 results, we may also have had an update from Medicare on the proposed reimbursement for prosthetics, which would provide a significant tailwind for Embla Medical for years to come. We reiterate our BUY and DKK39 target price.

Medicare news may be close

Q2 report due Tuesday, 23 July – many moving parts. Key factor looks to be possibility of imminent Medicare news Updated fair value range DKK 26-38 (25-37).

Underlying Q1 growth intriguingly good

Solid 7% organic growth in Q1, underlying was even better. Another $3m in restructuring costs reveals margin pressure. Maintain FV 25-37 after smaller EPS changes.

Embla Medical (Buy, TP: DKK39.00) - Solid start to 2024

Embla Medical’s (formerly Össur’s) organic growth print in Q1 was solid, 7% above consensus of 5.6%. Reported margins were somewhat soft on unexpected one-offs related to cost saving initiatives, but underlying margins were in line with consensus, and the commentary from management about the gross-margin trajectory for the remainder of 2024 was supportive. On limited estimate changes, we reiterate our BUY and DKK39 target price.