(Republished) Q4 preview: soft end to soft year

Dometic (Buy, TP: SEK70.00) - Way forward becoming clearer

We forecast Q4 sales of SEK4,574m, with c-15% organic growth YOY and adj. EBITA of SEK267m, c3% below consensus. We have reduced our 2025–2026e adj. EBIT by c3% on average, due to updated FX (positive effect) and lowered underlying estimates. As a result, we have reduced our target price to SEK70 (75), but reiterate our BUY, given the low valuation and mid-2025e market improvement.

Alimak (Hold, TP: SEK130.00) - A gentle goodbye to 2024e

We are 2% above post-Q3 consensus on Q4e sales and 1% above on adj. EBITA, as we forecast an adj. EBITA margin of 17.2% (Q4 2023 15.7%, consensus 17.4%). We expect the company to guide for a construction market rebound not earlier than H2, but that M&A should be a contributor for growth in 2025 (M&A is not in our estimates). Following minor estimates changes, we reiterate our HOLD and SEK130 target price.

Autoliv (Buy, TP: SEK1360.00) - Higher margin and share buybacks

Although the share price is up >10% since the Q3 report and we are 4% below consensus on Q4e adj. EBIT, we continue to like the stock. We see EBIT growing by c35% until 2026e (in line with consensus), with the valuation c20% below the historical average and capacity for further share buybacks. We expect Autoliv’s 2025 guidance to include c2% organic growth and an adj. EBIT margin of 10–11%. We reiterate our BUY, and have raised our target price to SEK1,360 (1,270).

Cost savings, divestments and '27e margin target

Greener grass in 2025

Husqvarna (Sell, TP: SEK50.00) - Headwinds are intensifying

Following yesterday’s Q4 profit warning, we expect sales and EBIT to come under further pressure from weaker-for-longer consumer demand, intensified market challenges and promotional activity, as well as negative mix effects and lower inventory build-up from retailers and dealers. Consequently, we reiterate our SELL and have cut our target price to SEK50 (55).

Profit warning in a small quarter

Alligator Bioscience (No_rec, TP: SEK) - Discontinuing coverage

We have discontinued coverage of Alligator Bioscience. Our last published recommendation, target price and estimates should no longer be relied upon.

Alimak (Hold, TP: SEK130.00) - Facade Access: ‘man’ of the match

The Q3 report was mixed, with orders down 2% organically YOY (4% below consensus) and sales flat YOY (in line with consensus). Facade Access orders rose 25% organically YOY (supported by a large infrastructure order), albeit, offset by construction down 27% organically YOY. The highlight was the 5% adj. EBITA beat, driven by a 160bp margin beat in Facade Access. We reiterate our HOLD but have raised our target price to SEK130 (125), having increased our 2024–2026e adj. EBITA by 3% on FX changes ...

Sampo plc - Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships & Alliances

Summary MarketLine's Sampo plc Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships & Alliances and Investments report includes business description, detailed reports on mergers and acquisitions (M&A), divestments, capital raisings, venture capital investments, ownership and partnership transactions undertaken by Sampo plc - Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships & Alliances since January2007. MarketLine's Company Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships & Alliances and Investments reports offer a...

Alligator Bioscience (Buy, TP: SEK1.50) - Running out of cash runway

The Q3 burn rate was higher than in Q1–Q2 at a time the company’s cash runway is running out – management said it had cash for Q4 (excluding the Q4e option programme TO09). Also, a partnering deal for mitazalimab is taking longer than we assumed, leaving the company in a difficult position (potential partners would be aware of its financial position). We have pushed a deal to 2025e and a potential launch to 2028e; as a result, we have cut our target price to SEK1.50 (2.00). That said, we reitera...

Medistim (Hold, TP: NOK172.00) - Q3 report

While up 7% YOY (currency-neutral sales growth 5.3%), revenues of NOK132.8m were below our forecast of NOK136m. The EBIT margin of 24% (Q3 2023: 27%) also fell shy of our forecast of 28.6%. We still see signs that the company’s ‘going direct’ efforts should eventually bear fruit, but we now believe their effect on the revenue side and on margins will take longer to materialise than we initially expected. We also note the cardiac segment is seeing slower progress than we expected, causing us conc...

Sales recovery and cost cuts ahead

Weathering through the storm

Alimak (Hold, TP: SEK125.00) - Limited changes ahead of Q3

We are 2% below post-Q2 consensus on Q3e sales and 4% below on adj. EBITA, as we forecast an adj. EBITA margin of 17.0% (Q3 2023 16.1%, consensus 17.4%). We expect the company to guide for project delays in Facade Access continuing in 2024 and into 2025. Following a change of analyst, we have made minor divisional estimate changes. Consequently, we have lowered our 2025–2026e adj. EBITA by 1% (of which c1% FX). We reiterate our HOLD but have raised our target price to SEK125 (117).

Dometic (Buy, TP: SEK75.00) - Factoring in a new (tougher) reality

Overall, Q3 was in line with the recent profit warning and consensus. However, we have updated our model (incorporating the profit warning and Q3 implications) and reduced adj. EBITA by c20% on average during 2024–2026e. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to SEK75 (100), as a result of our updated estimates. While the next few quarters are set to be tough, we believe this is reflected in the share price and that the risk/reward remains positive.

Q3 report roughly in line with pre-announcement

Q3 results slightly better than feared, new cost savings

Autoliv (Buy, TP: SEK1270.00) - Relief rally

Although Q3 sales and adj. EBIT were just 1% above consensus, the report was a positive surprise that led to a relief rally in the stock price. Key positives were that the 2024 margin guidance was not cut to the extent investors had feared and that the company said it was increasing its market share with local Chinese OEMs. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK1,270 (1,210) following our 4–2% increase in adj. EBIT for 2024–2026e.