Autoliv (Buy, TP: SEK1600.00) - In the fast lane

Despite beating guidance in Q1, Autoliv kept its 2024 guidance intact. In our view, this adds upside potential to consensus for 2024 and some credibility to the 12% medium-term EBIT margin target. Although we estimate 29% YOY growth in 2024e adj. EBIT, fundamentals are likely to be on the sidelines as we expect the company to resume its large share buyback programme in the coming weeks (the mandate has USD873m, c9% of the market cap, left for 2024). We reiterate our BUY and have raised our targe...

Husqvarna (Sell, TP: SEK63.00) - Pressure persists

Continued weak end-market demand, lower production volumes, and a legacy-business exit weighed on sales and earnings in Q1. We expect organic growth and earnings to remain under pressure in 2024. Following the Q1 results, we reiterate our SELL and SEK63 target price.

Medistim (Hold, TP: NOK190.00) - Sales in Americas weaken

Revenues grew 3.5% YOY in Q1 (currency-neutral total sales grew 2.2%), below our estimate c6%. The EBIT margin of 24% was almost back to normal and in our view shows the low margin in Q4 2023 (16.4%) should be seen as a one-off. However, we remain concerned about revenue growth, especially in the Americas, after the fifth consecutive quarter of declining currency-neutral sales. Thus, while we reiterate our HOLD, we have lowered our 2024–2026e sales by c3–8% and cut our target price to NOK190 (21...

Alimak (Hold, TP: SEK102.00) - Facade Access progress

Alimak reported a solid Q1, with strong margins in Industrial and Facade Access. Margins in Construction were on the weak side (following weak Q4 orders), but management seemed confident of a return to normal as soon as in Q2. We have raised our 2024–2026e adj. EBITA by 1–2%. We reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our target price to SEK102 (100).

Cautious optimism ahead of Q2

-11% org. growth, partly due to normalised robotics sales. We see good prospects for improvements in Q2'24e. Lacking short-term triggers for re-rating, we reiterate HOLD.

Q1 figures roughly in line

Dometic (Buy, TP: SEK100.00) - Recovery taking time

Overall, Q1 was below consensus, driven by surprisingly weak performance for Land Vehicles Americas where Dometic said the competitive environment was tough. We have cut our 2024–2026e adj. EBIT by c3% on average and reduced our target price to SEK100 (105). We reiterate our BUY, seeing c25% upside potential from the current share price to our target price, but have pushed a recovery out in time.

Topdanmark (Hold, TP: DKK320.00) - Weathering the storm

Despite harsh winter weather, Topdanmark reported Q1 PTP up ~1% YOY due to a strong investment result and solid underwriting. The combined ratio was 84.8%, 1.2%-points higher YOY, supported by low large claims and high run-off gains. While the underlying claims ratio was up YOY, pricing measures should continue to support improved underwriting. On somewhat increased cost control, we have raised our 2025–2026e EPS by ~1%. We reiterate our HOLD and DKK320 target price.

Alimak (Hold, TP: SEK100.00) - Limited changes ahead of Q1

We have lowered our 2024e sales and adj. EBITA by 1%, mainly on lower organic growth in Construction, and marginally revised our 2025–2026e ahead of the Q1 results (due at 08:00 CET on 25 April). We believe project delays within Facade Access continued to hamper divisional sales, and expect a recovery in H2. We reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our target price to SEK100 (94) on valuation.

Repricing the tonic for bad weather

We expect above-normal weather-related claims in Q1 as a result of heavy rain and snowfall (and record-low temperatures) in the Nordics at the start of the year. On the positive side, we believe the non-life insurers should see the effects of 2023’s repricing efforts, while their latest CMD presentations leave us confident the sector remains committed to maintaining underwriting discipline. Tryg is our top pick in the Nordic P&C sector, while we also reiterate our BUYs on Sampo and Gjensidige an...

Dometic (Buy, TP: SEK105.00) - Motoring on

We estimate Q1 sales of SEK6,614m and adj. EBIT of SEK595m (adj. EBITA of SEK745m). Q1 tends not to be a seasonally strong cash flow quarter and we expect end-Q1 net debt/EBITDA of 2.8x. We have increased our 2024–2026e adj. EBIT by c4% on average, reflecting updated FX and somewhat higher profitability. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK105 (100) on updated valuation and estimates.

Autoliv (Buy, TP: SEK1435.00) - Set for an undramatic Q1

We are roughly in line with Q1 consensus, and expect an adj. EBIT margin close to the guidance of c7% and a reiteration of the 2024 guidance. We estimate c30% adj. EBIT growth for 2024 and the cUSD0.9bn of the buyback mandate that remains for this year to further support the stock, which remains one of our sector top picks. We reiterate our BUY, and have raised our target price to SEK1,425 (1,300).

Husqvarna (Sell, TP: SEK63.00) - Tough Q1 expected

We forecast weak consumer demand, lower volumes, negative mix, high robotics comparables, and a partial exit from its combustion engine business (worth cSEK750m of sales) to weigh on sales and EBIT in Q1, with market dynamics and a consumer environment similar to H2 2023. We forecast a Q1 sales decline of 9% YOY and an adj. EBIT margin of 11.4%, down 260bp YOY. We reiterate our SELL and SEK63 target price.

Dometic Group AB: 1 director

A director at Dometic Group AB bought 3,081 shares at 78.302SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 50/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clear...

Medistim (Hold, TP: NOK210.00) - Decreased EBIT margin

Revenues were down in all regions in Q4, with currency-neutral total sales down c13.7% YOY. Due to various strategic initiatives, the EBIT margin was unusually low in the quarter, but we expect it to gradually come back to ‘normal’ levels of 25–30%. However, we have lowered our sales estimates, downgraded to HOLD and lowered our target price to NOK210 (260).

Alligator Bioscience (Buy, TP: SEK1.50) - Rights issue announced

The group pre-announced its Q4 earnings on 8 February in tandem with revealing plans for a rights issue (c40% guaranteed, with a subscription price of SEK1.07/unit). We believe the financial risk in the case remains high, given less than half the rights issue would be guaranteed and the stock is trading below the subscription price. However, we reiterate our BUY, and have raised our target price to SEK1.5 (1.0).

Alimak (Hold, TP: SEK94.00) - Facade Access yet to turn corner

We have reduced our 2024e adj. EBITA by 2%, largely explained by our lower Facade Access margin assumptions, with the improvement in profitability taking longer than we expected. However, management guided for a gradual increase in 2024 (and all new orders booked in Q4 are in line with its higher margin requirements). We reiterate our HOLD but have trimmed our target price to SEK94 (95).

Husqvarna (Sell, TP: SEK63.00) - Under pressure

We reiterate our SELL and have lowered our target price to SEK63 (65), as we cannot extrapolate Q4’s strong growth in professional robotics into 2024, weak consumer demand and macroeconomic headwinds should weigh on sales and earnings in H1, and longer-term we remain cautious on the impact of the transition to electrification on margins.

Alimak (Hold, TP: SEK95.00) - Higher margin for 2025e

We have tweaked our 2023–2024 forecasts but raised our 2025e adj. EBITA by 2% on higher Facade Access margin forecasts. While we believe project delays still affected Facade Access’s Q4 order intake, 2025 margins in the division should be boosted by savings from consolidating assembly activity. We reiterate our HOLD but have raised our target price to SEK95 (69), seeing lower risks related to the construction market than before.

Husqvarna Minor model adjustments

We have updated our estimates, owing to updated FX, minor adjustments to our adj. EBIT assumptions and one-offs in Q4 2023 (results due at c07:00 CET on 2 February). We do not consider these changes to be material, and we have not changed our SELL recommendation. We reiterate our SEK65 target price.