Modern Times Group AB: 3 directors

Three Directors at Modern Times Group AB bought/maiden bought 3,152 shares at 6.574SEK. The significance rating of the trade was 51/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the ...

UPM (Buy, TP: EUR45.00) - In pole position

Q1 operations were solid across the board, and earnings beat expectations on higher realised power prices than expected and lower opex for the pulp business. We have made relatively few changes to our 2024–2027e earnings, but believe the investment case has strengthened and the forecast risk been eliminated given strong operations and positive outlook comments also for transformative growth investment projects. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to EUR45 (44).

We expect growth in Q2 but visibility is still low

Q1 likely marked the negative organic growth trough. But visibility remains low and valuation still elevated. EBIT +1-5% mainly on FX, we stick to HOLD, TP SEK 350 (330).

Paso in black: A strong Q1

60% of pulp production in Lat-Am - less exposed to the Nordic wood shortage. Paper is late-cyclical and follows pulp. SOTP points to EUR ~43/sh incl. growth projects

MTG (Buy, TP: SEK120.00) - Profitable growth and buybacks

We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK120, following a >10% earnings beat in Q1. MTG gave a cautious revenue growth outlook for 2024 (+1-5% YOY) but with positive adj. EBITDA margin guidance (26–29%). It announced SEK100m of buybacks, with more likely to come following the AGM on 16 May. We have raised our 2024–2025e EBITDA by c3% and continue to like the MTG story, with market growth, good cost control and the ~SEK3bn net cash position.

Q1 miss but comps now get easier

New financial targets in focus

Aims for adj. EPS of at least SEK 5.50 in '26. Driven by 10% EBITA CAGR and buybacks. We trim our long-term assumptions.

A soft start to the year

No incremental news on restructuring and soft Q1 numbers. EBIT estimates intact for 2025e-26e. Unattractive risk/reward, SELL reiterated.

Soft adj. numbers in Q1 vs. expectations

Underlying Q1 growth intriguingly good

Solid 7% organic growth in Q1, underlying was even better. Another $3m in restructuring costs reveals margin pressure. Maintain FV 25-37 after smaller EPS changes.

Embla Medical (Buy, TP: DKK39.00) - Solid start to 2024

Embla Medical’s (formerly Össur’s) organic growth print in Q1 was solid, 7% above consensus of 5.6%. Reported margins were somewhat soft on unexpected one-offs related to cost saving initiatives, but underlying margins were in line with consensus, and the commentary from management about the gross-margin trajectory for the remainder of 2024 was supportive. On limited estimate changes, we reiterate our BUY and DKK39 target price.

Embla Medical (Buy, TP: DKK39.00) - Q1 set to build momentum

We expect Embla Medical (formerly Ossur) to report another solid organic growth quarter, despite tough comparables and Easter effects. We forecast the bionics portfolio to continue to drive prosthetics growth, with more muted growth in Bracing and Support and Patient Care. While we expect the EBIT margin to expand YOY in Q1, and continue to build throughout 2024, we estimate previously taken cost savings to have less effect in the quarter. We reiterate our BUY and DKK39 target price.