reports
- Dan Salmon
Match Group (MTCH, Neutral, $34 target) Downgrade to Neutral on lower...
We are lowering our rating on MTCH to Neutral from Buy following last week’s Investor Day. Our model now reflects management’s detailed guidance, resulting in lower estimates, and we also lower our target valuation, leading to new target of $34 vs $48 previously.
- Dan Salmon
Match Group (MTCH, Buy, $52 target) 3Q24 Model Update
We continue to see a positive risk-reward for the stock, anchored by strong margins and FCF generation, with share buybacks protecting downside ~$30 and the potential for strategic alternatives to unlock value if Tinder cannot grow MAUs and payers consistently.
- Dan Salmon
Match Group (MTCH, Buy, $54 target) MTCH First Take: Positioning for a...
What's New: In this first take following tonight’s results, we focus on: 1. Tinder a la carte (ALC) rollout delayed, clouding outlook for the flagship app 2. Tinder MAU trends under more pressure since mid-Sept: back to school hangover? 3. Are new segment profit disclosures a precursor to “exploring strategic alternatives?” 4. What does all of this imply for the Investor Day? And the CFO transition? 5. What to do with the stock
- Dan Salmon
Match Group (MTCH, Buy, $54 target) Quick Thoughts Ahead of the Print
Ahead of Wednesday’s PM’s earnings report and Thursday’s AM’s call, we review what to look for in the shareholder letter, listen for on the call, our top questions for management, potential positive and negative catalysts, and key debates, controversies, and popular topics of late, specifically: 1. Can Tinder payers return to year-over-year growth in 4Q24? 2. If so, how much payer growth is being driven by ALC only buyers vs subscribers? 3. Details on the refreshed a la carte offering 4. How lon...
- Dan Salmon
Match Group (MTCH, Buy, raising target to $54 from $53) Raising 2025-...
Tinder is expected to resume sequential payer growth in 3Q24, and 4Q24 year-over-year payer growth is now in focus – will it be positive or not? With its ecosystem cleanup past the one-year anniversary, we expect investors to increasingly focus on the refresh of its a la carte (ALC) offering which is getting underway. In this note, we review where Tinder ALC stands today, key product features at each of Tinder, Bumble and Hinge, and what the new ALC offering at Tinder could entail.
- Dan Salmon
- Dan Salmon
Match Group (MTCH, Buy, $55 target) Sigh of Relief as 3Q Tinder payer ...
What’s New: In this first take following tonight’s results, we touch on: 1. Tinder 2Q net adds better than feared and 3Q payer guidance brings welcome relief 2. No mention of activists in letter, but Investor Day pinned for December 3. Hinge beats on RPP & Payers, #2 most downloaded dating app in collective markets 4. Exiting Live Streaming and shutting down Hakuna, but bringing Azar to the U.S. 5. Adjusted OI margins solid, but Livestreaming exit will add near-term costs 6. Share buyback excee...
- Dan Salmon
Match Group (MTCH, Buy, $55 target) Quick Thoughts Ahead of the Print
Ahead of Tuesday PM’s earnings report and Wednesday AM’s call, we review key controversies for MTCH, including: 1. Tinder payers: the moment of truth is here 2. Hinge remains a bright spot, but we tap down out-year revenue growth 3. We expect no change to 2024 margin guidance 4. Share buyback levels continue to become a greater focus We also review what to look for in the investor letter and listen for on the earnings call, our top questions for management, potential positive and negative cataly...
- Dan Salmon
- Dan Salmon
- Dan Salmon
Match Group (MTCH, Buy, $55 target) Tinder Trough Deepens as Buybacks ...
What’s New: In this first take following tonight’s results, we touch on: 1. 1Q24 roughly in-line, but 2Q24 and 2024 guidance lower 2. Tinder trough deepens, but still on track for 3Q24 sequential payer growth 3. Hinge growth in line with guidance: RPP better than expected, payers a little light 4. Adjusted OI margins solid, but higher GAAP items called out 5. Share buyback target moved to 75% of FCF from prior 50% target
- Dan Salmon
Match Group (MTCH, Buy, $55 target) Quick Thoughts Ahead of Tuesday’s...
Ahead of Tuesday PM’s earnings report, we review key controversies for MTCH, including: 1. Tinder payers: the moment of truth approaches 2. The path to $1 billion in revenue for Hinge 3. Will MTCH outspend the 50% of FCF target for share buybacks again in 2024? We also review what to look for in the investor letter and listen for on the earnings call, our top questions for management, and potential positive and negative catalysts for MTCH.
- Dan Salmon
- Emily Stykes
Match Group (MTCH, Buy, $55 target) Investor Day date could be next st...
This morning MTCH announced the addition of two new Board members after a “constructive engagement with Elliott Investment Management.” Among other things, the company also confirmed it will host an investor day at a date still to be determined.
- Dan Salmon
- Emily Stykes
- Dan Salmon
- Emily Stykes
Match Group (MTCH, Buy, TP: $55) Quick Thoughts Following the Call
What's New: In this note we touch on: 1. Tinder refresh data points 2. $20M annualized benefit from AAPL changes 3. Elliott engagement confirmed 4. Hinge seasonality is a sign of scale 5. $20-$30M investment in AI, but no revenue in guidance
- Dan Salmon
- Dan Salmon
- Emily Stykes
Match Group (MTCH, Buy, TP: $55) Initial Thoughts Ahead of Tomorrow's ...
What's New: In this brief note we touch on: 1. Tinder payers still expected to grow beginning 3Q24 2. Material change in M&A tone: the Elliott impact? 3. New $1B share buyback authorization 4. Strong growth continues at Hinge, MG Asia bouncing back 5. Elevated marketing spending 6. How will AI features be monetized?
- Dan Salmon
- Emily Stykes
Match Group (MTCH, Buy, TP: $55) Quick Thoughts Ahead of the Print
What's New: In this brief note we touch on the key controversies we expect to be in focus for tonight’s earnings release and tomorrow’s call at 8:30am ET: 1. Outlook for Tinder payers in 2H24 2. Update on Tinder a la carte product suite, pricing, and merchandising 3. Tinder management succession 4. Hinge growth outlook 5. Outlook for in-app payments post AAPL changes 6. Marketing expense and margins 7. AI product roadmap 8. Management engagement with Elliott
- Blair Levin
- Dan Salmon
- Matt Perault
- Dan Salmon
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