EME Equity Market – April 2025 EME indices mostly in the red in April, Hungarian BUX and Greek ASE the exceptions. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 2.0% mom in EUR terms, but was up 2.9% mom in USD terms in April. The Hungarian BUX was the best performer, followed by the Greek ASE index (+3.5% and 0.8% mom in EUR terms, respectively). There was a slight decline in the Polish WIG20, and more pronounced deteriorations in the Romanian BET and Czech PX indices (-0.6%, -2.0% and -4.2% mom in EUR ...
HEADLINES: • Bank Pekao: very solid 1Q25, supporting our 2025E 20%+ ROE, trading at 1.3x BV and a 9%+ yield very attractive • Komercni Banka: beat on 1Q25 bottom line driven by LLPs releases, pre-provision profit falls short of expectations NEUTRAL • Erste Bank: 1Q25 results in line; 2025E ROTE guidance sustained, but market focus on potential big M&A effort • mBank: 1Q25 solid, but valuation reflects recovery already; 2025E revenue guidance a little disappointing • Santander Bank Polska: solid ...
HEADLINES: • Theon International: 1Q25 trading update – strong execution, rich options POSITIVE • Kruk: 1Q25 results, beat driven by Wonga, debt purchased segment in line, but slowing growth dynamics NEUTRAL • Siauliu Bankas: rather weak 1Q25, but maintained outlook should provide some support NEGATIVE • Medicover: 1Q25 beat on admin costs and other financial income POSITIVE • Otokar: 1Q25 results – continuing losses on the operating and bottom lines • Tofas: weak set of results in 1Q25, as anti...
HEADLINES: • Arcelik: weak set of results in 1Q25 NEGATIVE • Akbank: 1Q25 highlights – management cautious on margin, but positive on fees • Yapi Kredi: 1Q25 highlights, before the call – beat on NII and fees (evolved better than the guidance) • Solutions by STC: weak 1Q25 financial results, disappointing revenue growth NEGATIVE • Poland macro: April data paint an encouraging picture • PCF Group: PLN 173m write-offs to hit the 2024 results, related mostly to Bifrost NEGATIVE • Richter: positive ...
HEADLINES: • DO & CO: the art of the meal (BUY - initiation of coverage) • Diagnostyka: strong 4Q24, in line with the prelims NEUTRAL • Alior Bank: 1Q25 a little below 1Q25E expectations, but valuation (1Q25 P/BV at 1.2x) still very low NEUTRAL • MONETA Money Bank: 1Q25 results almost in line with expectations, ROE of 18% fully priced in by 1Q25 P/BV of 2.2x NEUTRAL • Metlen Energy & Metals: 1Q25 sales +31% yoy, to EUR 1.5bn, in line NEUTRAL • 11 bit studios: strategy update, expands pipeline to...
HEADLINES: • Mo-BRUK: 4Q24 results miss expectations, on jumping SG&A costs NEGATIVE • Orange Polska: 1Q25 results – EBITDAaL up 3% yoy, in line with the consensus; 2025E guidance reiterated NEUTRAL • Kety: 1Q25 results and new strategy presentation call takeaways NEUTRAL • EMEA airlines: 1Q25 traffic; demand concerns vs. cheaper USD and oil • CEZ: ANO promising privatisation and lower fees NEGATIVE • Metlen Energy & Metals: sells Chilean RES for USD 815m (EUR 710m) POSITIVE • Polish banks: Trea...
HEADLINES: • Halyk Bank: efficient frontier (stays BUY) • Diagnostyka: 4Q24 prelims and DPS proposal ahead of expectations POSITIVE • Kety: 1Q25 results in line with the preliminaries, PLN 48.78 DPS proposed NEUTRAL • Kety: new strategy assumes PLN 1.35bn in EBITDA in 2029E, close to our forecast NEUTRAL • CEZ: said to be nearing sale of nuclear SPV to the State POSITIVE • Poland macro: mixed results in March • Greece macro: 2024 budget surplus triggers one-off fiscal easing this year • Kazatomp...
HEADLINES: • Theon International: Noctis in Dies* (BUY - initiation of coverage) • Huuuge Games: 4Q24 adjusted EBITDA 5% above our forecast, share buybacks not a priority NEUTRAL • PGE: key takeaways from the 4Q24 results call NEUTRAL • Tauron: key takeaways from the 4Q24 results call NEUTRAL • Auto Partner: earnings call takeaways – challenging 1Q25E, but rather optimistic on FY25E outlook NEUTRAL • InPost: acquisition of Yodel for GBP 106m debt swap NEUTRAL • Diagnostyka: 4Q24E preview – 35% y...
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: tariff impact – a preliminary assessment • VIGO Photonics: signs framework agreement with PCO on infrared arrays; minimum 2026-31 contract value of PLN 191.9m POSITIVE • Benefit Systems: confirms 4Q24 preliminary EBITDA of PLN 261m NEUTRAL • Benefit Systems: Medicover gets conditional approval to acquire CityFit gyms NEUTRAL • OMV: 1Q25 trading statement NEUTRAL • OMV Petrom: 1Q25 trading statement NEUTRAL • CEZ: ANO wants to nationalise CEZ • Richter: proposes D...
EME Equity Market – March 2025 Türkiye hammered, once again. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced 0.5% in EUR terms and 4.5% mom in USD terms in March. The Czech PX Index was the best performer (+7.0% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Greek ASE (+4.8% mom), Polish WIG (+3.7% mom) and Hungarian BUX(+1.3% mom) indices (all in EUR terms). There was a muted performance from the Romanian BET Index (-0.1% mom in EUR terms). The Turkish ISE30 finished in the red again, declining 9.5% mom in EUR terms.
HEADLINES: • Shoper: 4Q24 results in line with prelims, sound cash flow generation NEUTRAL • Kety: 1Q25 results close to our expectations and relatively flat yoy NEUTRAL • Asseco Poland: key takeaways from the 4Q24 earnings call NEUTRAL • Aquila Part Prod Com S.A.: publishes 2025 budget POSITIVE • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (24-30 March)
HEADLINES: • Polish banks: pricing and believing (PKO BP, Bank Pekao, Santander BP, mBank, ING BSK, Bank Millennium, Alior Bank, Bank Handlowy) • Asseco Poland: 4Q24 review – net profit up 9% yoy, 9% above the consensus POSITIVE • InPost: 4Q24 in line with expectations; FY25E EBITDA growth guidance in the mid-20%s, but a slow start to the year POSITIVE • Kety: solid full 4Q24 results, with EBITDA 12% above preliminaries POSITIVE • Halyk Bank: 4Q24 review and 2025E guidance highlights • Titan Cem...
The Polish banks have rallied 35% ytd, but the median total return for the LTM has arrived at 18%+ for the Polish banks under our coverage. We feel that the market is currently in a similar place to exactly a year ago. The banks have performed well since the end of last year, but valuations remain attractive, with our 2025-26E median P/Es of 9.0-8.2x, at discounts to the long-term valuation levels and with solid single-digit dividend yields in 1H25E. Our upgraded forecasts imply a 10% median EPS...
HEADLINES: • Polish banks: Financial Stability Committee mentions sanction of free credit risk for consumer loans portfolio NEGATIVE • DataWalk: preliminary 4Q24 results – sales up 19% yoy, to PLN 9.09m POSITIVE • Türkiye macro: putting the CBRT’s emergency rate hike into context • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (17-23 March) • GTC: solvency of controlling investor in question, after State Audit Office of Hungary's report • Banca Transilvania: dividend proposal from the 2024 profits NEUTRA...
HEADLINES: • Polish banks: first politician to suggest additional military tax for the banks NEGATIVE • Sipchem: preliminary 4Q24 results, net profit down, on maintenance NEGATIVE • Türkiye macro: CBRT tightens policy with surprise corridor hike • Kazatomprom: 4Q24 results – well above the market’s estimates POSITIVE • Jeronimo Martins: key takeaways from the 4Q24 call NEGATIVE • Alior Bank: CEO Żabski’s interview with Puls Biznesu, ahead of strategic update (due on 25 March) • Sipchem: to mothb...
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