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Russell Waller
  • Russell Waller

Orange/Telia/Tele2 and whole sector: Downgrade to Neutral Downgrading...

After some strong share price moves, and now with limited upside to our target prices, we downgrade Orange, Tele2 and Telia to Neutral from Buy. This is a valuation call with no change to thesis.

Russell Waller
  • Russell Waller

Orange (Buy, TP: €18.9, +7%) New EFCF guide justifies a Buy – more to...

Orange presented its vision for the next 3 years in Paris today. We attended, and give our initial thoughts in this short piece. In summary, we are Buyers of Orange, and heard enough to stay long-term positive on the name (even ex M&A). The cash story we wrote about at the time of the MasOrange (MO) buy-in (HERE) is coming through.

Russell Waller
  • Russell Waller

Orange (Buy, TP: €18.9, +12%) Q4 25: Set-up nicely ahead of tomorrow’s...

Orange has reported a solid set of results, with Telco EBITDA c+0.7% ahead of consensus. French KPIs are solid, and French retail SR y/y growth is a little better sequentially.

Russell Waller
  • Russell Waller

Altice France bonds (Equal Weight) Altice France equity (Neutral, TP: ...

After a quiet few weeks, press releases from the consortium this morning confirm that talks are still ongoing, and that due diligence is happening. The French press are reporting on a March deadline. We look at the implications of the release and reports in this short note.

James Ratzer
  • James Ratzer

European Telecoms for 2026 Industry action required for further outpe...

Over the past 3 years, the EU telecoms sector has had a great run – up >50%, despite modest underlying revenue/ EBITDA growth. This has almost entirely come from a deserved upwards re-rating in the multiple as the risk profile across the sector diminishes – which has been a key theme of ours in the past few years given improved regulation. So, we feel this has now largely played out.

Russell Waller
  • Russell Waller

Orange (Buy, TP: €17, +24%) Spain buy-in, target increases to €17, +24...

Late on Friday evening Orange announced that it had agreed to buy out the 50% share in MasOrange (MO) it didn’t own for €4.25bn.

Russell Waller
  • Russell Waller

Orange (Buy, TP: €16.2, +15%) Q3 25: Solid numbers, Group EBITDAaL gui...

Orange has reported a solid set of results, with Telco revenue and EBITDA in-line with consensus expectations; Bank losses are lower than expected and Group EBITDAaL guidance has been lifted as a result (despite a small downgrade to OBS guidance).

Russell Waller
  • Russell Waller

Orange (Buy, TP: €16.4, +21%) Bouygues (Buy, TP: €54, +39%) Altice Fra...

After months of speculation, there is finally an offer for SFR in France. The deal structure is a lot more complicated than we thought it would be, but we think the offer is a fair one. We think the offer implies a synergy payment of €4.2bn, and values the SFR equity at €15/share, if XpFibre, UltraEdge, ATS, Intelcia, and FOT are indeed worth €4bn, as the release suggests.

Russell Waller
  • Russell Waller

Orange (Buy, TP: €16.4, +21%) Bouygues (Buy, TP: €54, +39%) Altice Fra...

After months of speculation, there is finally an offer for SFR in France. The deal structure is a lot more complicated than we thought it would be, but we think the offer is a fair one.

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