Orange presented its vision for the next 3 years in Paris today. We attended, and give our initial thoughts in this short piece. In summary, we are Buyers of Orange, and heard enough to stay long-term positive on the name (even ex M&A). The cash story we wrote about at the time of the MasOrange (MO) buy-in (HERE) is coming through.
After a quiet few weeks, press releases from the consortium this morning confirm that talks are still ongoing, and that due diligence is happening. The French press are reporting on a March deadline. We look at the implications of the release and reports in this short note.
Over the past 3 years, the EU telecoms sector has had a great run – up >50%, despite modest underlying revenue/ EBITDA growth. This has almost entirely come from a deserved upwards re-rating in the multiple as the risk profile across the sector diminishes – which has been a key theme of ours in the past few years given improved regulation. So, we feel this has now largely played out.
Orange has reported a solid set of results, with Telco revenue and EBITDA in-line with consensus expectations; Bank losses are lower than expected and Group EBITDAaL guidance has been lifted as a result (despite a small downgrade to OBS guidance).
After months of speculation, there is finally an offer for SFR in France. The deal structure is a lot more complicated than we thought it would be, but we think the offer is a fair one. We think the offer implies a synergy payment of €4.2bn, and values the SFR equity at €15/share, if XpFibre, UltraEdge, ATS, Intelcia, and FOT are indeed worth €4bn, as the release suggests.
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