reports
- Russell Waller
Altice France bonds (Equal Weight) Altice France equity (Neutral, TP: ...
After a quiet few weeks, press releases from the consortium this morning confirm that talks are still ongoing, and that due diligence is happening. The French press are reporting on a March deadline. We look at the implications of the release and reports in this short note.
- Oliver Metzger
- Stephane Houri
MTX MTU AERO ENGINES AG
SBMO SBM OFFSHORE NV
GBF BILFINGER SE
RHM RHEINMETALL AG
EKI EKINOPS SA
G24 SCOUT24 AG
BAMNB KONINKLIJKE BAM GROEP NV
RWE RWE AG
FIE FIELMANN AG
TUB TUBACEX S.A.
SAFE SAFESTORE HOLDINGS PLC
BOSN BOSSARD HOLDING AG
NKT NKT A/S
ALCUR ARCURE SA
FAST FASTNED
DEME DEME GROUP NV
TUI TUI AG
SCHOTT PHARMA AG
- Oliver Metzger
- Stephane Houri
MTX MTU AERO ENGINES AG
SBMO SBM OFFSHORE NV
GBF BILFINGER SE
RHM RHEINMETALL AG
EKI EKINOPS SA
G24 SCOUT24 AG
BAMNB KONINKLIJKE BAM GROEP NV
RWE RWE AG
FIE FIELMANN AG
TUB TUBACEX S.A.
SAFE SAFESTORE HOLDINGS PLC
BOSN BOSSARD HOLDING AG
NKT NKT A/S
ALCUR ARCURE SA
FAST FASTNED
DEME DEME GROUP NV
TUI TUI AG
SCHOTT PHARMA AG
- Amira Manai
- Amira Manai
- James Ratzer
European Telecoms for 2026 Industry action required for further outpe...
Over the past 3 years, the EU telecoms sector has had a great run – up >50%, despite modest underlying revenue/ EBITDA growth. This has almost entirely come from a deserved upwards re-rating in the multiple as the risk profile across the sector diminishes – which has been a key theme of ours in the past few years given improved regulation. So, we feel this has now largely played out.
- Russell Waller
- Russell Waller
Orange (Buy, TP: €16.2, +15%) Q3 25: Solid numbers, Group EBITDAaL gui...
Orange has reported a solid set of results, with Telco revenue and EBITDA in-line with consensus expectations; Bank losses are lower than expected and Group EBITDAaL guidance has been lifted as a result (despite a small downgrade to OBS guidance).
- Amira Manai
- Jeremy Garnier
- Thomas Zlowodzki
EN BOUYGUES SA
EKI EKINOPS SA
FAE FAES FARMA S.A.
SUN SULZER AG
VIS VISCOFAN S.A.
SBO SCHOELLER-BLECKMANN OILFIELD EQUIPMENT AG
AMG AMG ADVANCED METALLURGICAL GROUP N.V.
ALBFR SIDETRADE SA
OREGE OREGE SA
VOS VOSSLOH AG
NSI NSI N.V.
VK VALLOUREC SA
BAR BARCO NV
ONE ONE UNITED PROPERTIES SA
TEN TENARIS S.A.
HAVAS HAVAS N.V
- Amira Manai
- Russell Waller
Orange (Buy, TP: €16.4, +21%) Bouygues (Buy, TP: €54, +39%) Altice Fra...
After months of speculation, there is finally an offer for SFR in France. The deal structure is a lot more complicated than we thought it would be, but we think the offer is a fair one. We think the offer implies a synergy payment of €4.2bn, and values the SFR equity at €15/share, if XpFibre, UltraEdge, ATS, Intelcia, and FOT are indeed worth €4bn, as the release suggests.
- Russell Waller
- Russell Waller
Altice France equity (Neutral, TP: €10.3, -14%) Altice France bonds (E...
The price war at the low end of the French mobile market, which began at the beginning of summer 2024, and which we have written about extensively (HERE, HERE, HERE and HERE), appears to be coming to an end, thanks to some tariff changes that should lead to higher APRUs. We show some new work on tariffs in France in this short report, that should be good for all the MNOs.
- Russell Waller
Altice France equity (Neutral, TP: €10.3, -14%) Altice France bonds (E...
New Altice France debt and equity is now trading. Given the material change in bond terms, and the creation of a new separately traded equity piece, we reassess our rating, and think that at these levels the bonds look pretty fairly valued, and so take the bond rating to Equal weight from Overweight (the old bonds ended up +20% from the lows), and initiate on the equity with a Neutral, as we think that the equity is already implying a high probability of a deal happening, and see minimal underli...
- Russell Waller
Altice France (Overweight) Bouygues (Buy, TP: €52, +39%) Iliad (Equal ...
There have been a few recent reports that the sale process for XpFibre has heated up. It has been suggested that a sale might eventually be pulled and the stake used as a sweetener in any eventual deal; but actually, a sale could also be the first domino in the whole M&A process, as an XpFibre sale would help to ease leverage concerns that Bouygues might have from acquiring SFR. We still think a SFR-Bouygues deal is more likely than not by year end, and that Bouygues is the best way to play this...
- Russell Waller
Orange (Buy, TP: €15.8, +19%) MasOrange (Equal Weight) It’s not all a...
We have been long-term Buyers of Orange, and are pleased about the YTD share price performance (+37% vs the sector +10%). Some of that outperformance is probably due to the prospect of French market repair (France is 56% of the value), but actually it is the Spanish and AME divisions that cause our target to rise to €15.8 from €14.9 post the Q2 results.
- Charlotte Vaisse
- Marc Lavaud
- Olfa Taamallah
- Thomas Zlowodzki
- Yan Derocles
RR. ROLLS-ROYCE HOLDINGS PLC
MTX MTU AERO ENGINES AG
EO FAURECIA SA
VCT VICAT-CIMENTS VICAT SA
BFIT BASIC-FIT NV
HO THALES SA
TFI TELEVISION FRANCAISE 1 SA
FGA FIGEAC AERO SA
RHM RHEINMETALL AG
ALDEL DELFINGEN INDUSTRY SA
EKI EKINOPS SA
FII LISI SA
GOE GROUPE GORGE SA
SAF SAFRAN S.A.
AIR AIRBUS SE
BIG BIGBEN INTERACTIVE SA
BA. BAE SYSTEMS PLC
MIL BANK MILLENNIUM SA
HEIJM HEIJMANS N.V. CERT
TPS
VASTB ORANGE POLSKA S.A.
CON VASTNED RETAIL BELGIUM NV
WAF CONZZETA AG
INSD SILTRONIC AG
FACC VERIMATRIX SA
LDO FACC AG
FTG111 LEONARDO SPA
SAE FLATEXDEGIRO AG
CASH SHOP APOTHEKE EUROPE NV
GEST PROSEGUR CASH SA
CAF GESTAMP AUTOMOCION S.A.
WAVE CONSTRUCCIONES Y AUXILIAR DE FERROCARRILES S.A.
TMV WAVESTONE SA
NACON TEAMVIEWER AG
HAG NACON SASU
AERO HENSOLDT AG
AM MONTANA AEROSPACE AG
ALLFG DASSAULT AVIATION
LAT ALLFUNDS (UK) LTD
R3NK LATECOERE
EXENS RENK GROUP AG
CAN EXOSENS
CANAL+
- Charlotte Vaisse
- Marc Lavaud
- Olfa Taamallah
- Thomas Zlowodzki
- Yan Derocles
RR. ROLLS-ROYCE HOLDINGS PLC
MTX MTU AERO ENGINES AG
EO FAURECIA SA
VCT VICAT-CIMENTS VICAT SA
BFIT BASIC-FIT NV
HO THALES SA
TFI TELEVISION FRANCAISE 1 SA
FGA FIGEAC AERO SA
RHM RHEINMETALL AG
ALDEL DELFINGEN INDUSTRY SA
EKI EKINOPS SA
FII LISI SA
GOE GROUPE GORGE SA
SAF SAFRAN S.A.
AIR AIRBUS SE
BIG BIGBEN INTERACTIVE SA
BA. BAE SYSTEMS PLC
HEIJM HEIJMANS N.V. CERT
TPS
VASTB ORANGE POLSKA S.A.
CON VASTNED RETAIL BELGIUM NV
WAF CONZZETA AG
SMHN SILTRONIC AG
INSD SUESS MICROTEC AG
FACC VERIMATRIX SA
LDO FACC AG
FTG111 LEONARDO SPA
SAE FLATEXDEGIRO AG
CASH SHOP APOTHEKE EUROPE NV
GEST PROSEGUR CASH SA
CAF GESTAMP AUTOMOCION S.A.
WAVE CONSTRUCCIONES Y AUXILIAR DE FERROCARRILES S.A.
TMV WAVESTONE SA
NACON TEAMVIEWER AG
HAG NACON SASU
AERO HENSOLDT AG
AM MONTANA AEROSPACE AG
ALLFG DASSAULT AVIATION
LAT ALLFUNDS (UK) LTD
R3NK LATECOERE
EXENS RENK GROUP AG
CAN EXOSENS
CANAL+
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