reports
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Small-Caps Starting to Lead We continue to see the current environment as a bear market rally with the potential for it turn into something more following bullish breadth thrust signals. Large-cap US indexes (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100) have been treading water for a week (bull flags?), but many other indexes such as the Russell 2000 (IWM), DAX, Hang Seng, MSCI China (MCHI), and China Internet (KWEB) have continued to move higher following their bullish reversals from the prior two weeks. We are also ...
IMO. IMPERIAL OIL LIMITED
WLK WESTLAKE CHEMICAL CORPORATION
SU. SUNCOR ENERGY INC.
PSX PHILLIPS 66
OEC ORION ENGINEERED CARBONS SA
KOP KOPPERS HOLDINGS INC.
CVI CVR ENERGY INC.
CVE CENOVUS ENERGY INC.
MX. METHANEX CORPORATION
CNQ. CANADIAN NATURAL RESOURCES LIMITED
MPC. MADISON PACIFIC PROPERTIES INC. CL B
ARLP ALLIANCE RESOURCE PARTNERS L.P.
VLO VALERO ENERGY CORPORATION
YANZHOU COAL MINING CO. LTD. ADS
VVV VALVOLINE INC.
HCC WARRIOR MET COAL INC.
BTU PEABODY ENERGY CORPORATION
DK DELEK US HOLDINGS INC
CNX CNX RESOURCES CORPORATION
ARCH ARCH RESOURCES INC. CLASS A
PBE INVESCO DYNAMIC BIOTECHNOLOGY & GENOME ETF
OVV OVINTIV INC
DINO HOLLYFRONTIER CORP
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
S&P 500 Near Support; Watching Energy For Strength The market environment remains very mixed, with constant Sector rotations resulting in very few Sectors out- or under-performing for sustained periods. At the same time, market dynamics give us little-to-no reason to be bearish (aside from the simple fact that the S&P 500 has not pulled back even 5% for over 6 months). Growth Sectors (Communications, Technology) and large-caps (S&P 500) have been the primary winners and we recommend sticking wi...
HNRG HALLADOR ENERGY CO.
SBL SAFE BULKERS INC.
GNK GENCO SHIPPING & TRADING LTD.
ESEA EUROSEAS LTD.
LCM COSTAMARE INC.
CCO. CAMECO CORPORATION
DML DENISON MINES CORP.
EFR ENERGY FUELS
SBLK STAR BULK CARRIERS CORP.
ARLP ALLIANCE RESOURCE PARTNERS L.P.
YANZHOU COAL MINING CO. LTD. ADS
LEU CENTRUS ENERGY CORPORATION
BTU PEABODY ENERGY CORPORATION
METC RAMACO RESOURCES
XOP SPDR S&P OIL & GAS EXPLORATION ETF
NMM NAVIOS MARITIME PARTNERS
GSL GLOBAL SHIP LEASE INC. CLASS A
ARCH ARCH RESOURCES INC. CLASS A
ATCO ATLAS CORP.
EGLE EAGLE BULK SHIPPING
PALAT AMUNDI ETF PEA MSCI EM LATIN AMERICA UCITS ETF FCP
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Conditions Continue To Improve The Russell 2000 (IWM) has been moving sideways for 7 months between $208 and $234.50, emblematic of the mixed market environment that we still find ourselves in. As long as $208 support holds we remain constructive on the overall market. On the plus side, conditions have been improving over the past two weeks -- not getting worse (more on this below). This increases the odds of a breakout above $234.50 on the IWM in the coming weeks or months, which would signal ...
TSLA TESLA INC
TRNO TERRENO REALTY CORPORATION
STAG STAG INDUSTRIAL INC.
REXR REXFORD INDUSTRIAL REALTY INC.
PSA PUBLIC STORAGE
PLD PROLOGIS INC.
JD JD.COM INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
FR FIRST INDUSTRIAL REALTY TRUST INC.
FDUS FIDUS INVESTMENT CORP
CNS COHEN & STEERS INC.
NFLX NETFLIX INC.
AB ALLIANCEBERNSTEIN HOLDING L.P.
ARLP ALLIANCE RESOURCE PARTNERS L.P.
YANZHOU COAL MINING CO. LTD. ADS
IIPR INNOVATIVE INDUSTRIAL PROPERTIES INC
HCC WARRIOR MET COAL INC.
BTU PEABODY ENERGY CORPORATION
VCTR VICTORY CAPITAL HOLDINGS CLASS A
BSIG BRIGHTSPHERE INVESTMENT GROUP INC.
ARES ARES MANAGEMENT CORPORATION
CG CARLYLE GROUP INC
ARCH ARCH RESOURCES INC. CLASS A
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Conditions Improving; Watching Cyclicals, 10-Yr Yield Market conditions have started to improve, and the bottom line is that all Sectors and major indexes remain above critical supports. The absence of breakdowns continues to support our overall constructive outlook, and we are watching the 10-year Treasury yield, small-caps (IWM), Financials (XLF), and Industrials (XLI) closely for signs that a new broad-based rally is upon us. Conditions Improving. The 10-year Treasury yield displays early s...
PENN PENN NATIONAL GAMING INC.
ON ON SEMICONDUCTOR CORPORATION
MTD METTLER-TOLEDO INTERNATIONAL INC.
MPWR MONOLITHIC POWER SYSTEMS INC.
MCHP MICROCHIP TECHNOLOGY INCORPORATED
KEYS KEYSIGHT TECHNOLOGIES INC
CNTY CENTURY CASINOS INC.
CHDN CHURCHILL DOWNS INCORPORATED
BYD BOYD GAMING CORPORATION
A AGILENT TECHNOLOGIES INC.
MRVL MARVELL TECHNOLOGY GROUP LTD.
RRR RED ROCK RESORTS INC. CLASS A
GDEN GOLDEN ENTERTAINMENT
STM STABILUS SA
ARLP ALLIANCE RESOURCE PARTNERS L.P.
COHU COHU INC.
UMCB UNITED MICROELECTRONICS CORP (ADR)
YANZHOU COAL MINING CO. LTD. ADS
HCC WARRIOR MET COAL INC.
BTU PEABODY ENERGY CORPORATION
AMD ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC.
CZR CAESARS ENTERTAINMENT INC
ARCH ARCH RESOURCES INC. CLASS A
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Value Is Just Getting Going The weight of the evidence remains mixed yet constructive overall and suggests pullbacks to the 4000-4040 range on the S&P 500 would be nothing more than a buying opportunity. Therefore, we continue to recommend adding exposure to cyclical value areas (Energy, Financials, Materials, Manufacturing, and Transportation) on pullbacks. Below we explain why we believe value's outperformance is in its early innings, and the basis for our overall constructive outlook. S&P 5...
NUE NUCOR CORPORATION
ZEUS OLYMPIC STEEL INC.
WOR WORTHINGTON INDUSTRIES INC.
TX. TERNIUM S.A. SPONSORED ADR
TMST TIMKENSTEEL CORP
STLD STEEL DYNAMICS INC.
SCHN SCHNITZER STEEL INDUSTRIES INC. CLASS A
RYI RYERSON HOLDING CORPORATION
PKXN POSCO
HNRG HALLADOR ENERGY CO.
CMC COMMERCIAL METALS COMPANY
RIO RIO TINTO LIMITED
REI REIBEL
ARLP ALLIANCE RESOURCE PARTNERS L.P.
NRP NATURAL RESOURCE PARTNERS L.P.
SXC SUNCOKE ENERGY INC.
YANZHOU COAL MINING CO. LTD. ADS
CQWA COMPANHIA SIDERURGICA NACIONAL ADS
X UNITED STATES STEEL CORPORATION
CDEV CENTENNIAL RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT INC. CLASS A
MT ARCELORMITTAL
BTU PEABODY ENERGY CORPORATION
SBOW SILVERBOW RESOURCES
METC RAMACO RESOURCES
CNX CNX RESOURCES CORPORATION
PVAC PENN VIRGINIA CORPORATION
ARCH ARCH RESOURCES INC. CLASS A
SMSMY SIMS METAL MANAGEMENT LTD. ADS
- Please Change Name Cindy Yang
Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited: Update following ratings placed o...
CORPORATES CREDIT OPINION 15 August 2017 Update RATINGS Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited Domicile China Long Term Rating B2 , Possible Upgrade Type LT Corporate Family Ratings - Fgn Curr Outlook Rating(s) Under Review Please see the ratings section  at the end of this report for more information. The ratings and outlook shown reflect information as of the publication date. Contacts C
- Jennifer Song
Yanzhou’s Positive Profit Alert In Line; Softening Coal Price Points...
The positive 2017 first-half profit alert from no-moat Yanzhou Coal is within expectations, with profit rebounding on higher coal prices. However, the company’s guidance for net profit under PRC GAAP of CNY 3.2 billion suggests a slight 10% sequential net profit decline, to about CNY 1.5 billion, in the second quarter, amid softening coal prices. With the commencement of commercial operation at its Shilawusu and Yingpanhao coal mines, Yanzhou saw strong 19% year-over-year growth in self-produ...
- Jennifer Song
Surging Coal Price and Aggressive Capacity Expansion Drove Yanzhou’s...
Benefiting from the twin drivers of surging coal prices and strong production growth, Yanzhou Coal’s first-quarter net profit rebounded 6.6 times to CNY 1.6 billion under China GAAP. The result was largely within expectation, and we think the near-term attraction comes from the company’s capacity expansion, following the commercial operation of Shilawusu and Yingpanhao coal mines in 2017. Along with the proposed acquisition of Coal & Allied, we think these actions should add in more than 40 ...
- Jennifer Song
Yanzhou's Acquisition of C&A Seems Fairly Priced, but Increasing Lever...
Yanzhou Coal plans to expand its Australian operation with the acquisition of Coal & Allied, a subsidiary of Rio Tinto that owns majority interests in three coal mines in New South Wales, through its 78%-owned subsidiary, Yancoal Australia. The proposed transaction is likely to more than double Yancoal Australia’s current production volume and slightly improve its returns, given higher EBITDA margins at the targeted assets. We think the deal is reasonably priced, with the sharp rebound of co.....
- Jennifer Song
Surging Coal Prices Drove Positive 2016 Profit Alerts for Coal Compani...
The positive 2016 profit alerts from China’s coal companies are within expectations, with profit rebounds driven by higher coal prices. The benchmark Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index, or BSPI, closed at CNY 593 per tonne on Dec. 28, up 60% year over year. While the peak heating season should keep prices elevated over the next few months, we think coal prices will start to decline by the end of the first quarter of 2017 to be around 15%-20% below where they are now. Recent long-term thermal coa...
- Jennifer Song
China’s Easing in Supply Restrictions will Dampen Coal Prices in 201...
Coal prices in China are set to record strong gains in 2016, with the benchmark Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index up 54% year-over-year to CNY 601 per tonne as of Nov. 23. We think the surging coal price is mostly driven by China’s supply-side reform, with the “276-working day†policy significantly reducing coal production. The government has introduced cooling measures to stem the coal price surge, and increased coal supply is expected to come on stream in December. While the peak heating ...
- Jennifer Song
Yanzhou Coal's long-term future remains grim.
No-moat Yanzhou Coal’s third-quarter results came in slightly better than we expected, with a significant boost in recurring third-quarter net profit to CNY 400 million from a net loss of CNY 120 million in the second quarter, under PRC GAAP, driven by a 14% increase in average coal prices and a 12% drop in production cost. With the coal segment contributing about 85% of total gross profit, we expect Yanzhou to continue to benefit from the higher floor in coal prices, and raise our fair value ...
- Jennifer Song
Investments and Grants Drove a Turnaround at Yanzhou; Coal Segment Sti...
No-moat Yanzhou Coal posted a net profit of CNY 375 million in first-half 2016; however, excluding one-off items (CNY 445 million in government grants and CNY 95 million in investment reclassification gain), its core operation remains loss-marking and largely flat on a year-over-year basis. Contrary to the significant cost reductions seen at China Coal and Shenhua, Yanzhou suffered from a 5% cost inflation at domestic coal mines, owing to a high operating leverage on the back of a 10% production...
- Jennifer Song
Investments and Grants Drove a Turnaround at Yanzhou; Coal Segment Sti...
No-moat Yanzhou Coal posted a net profit of CNY 375 million in first-half 2016; however, excluding one-off items (CNY 445 million in government grants and CNY 95 million in investment reclassification gain), its core operation remains loss-marking and largely flat on a year-over-year basis. Contrary to the significant cost reductions seen at China Coal and Shenhua, Yanzhou suffered from a 5% cost inflation at domestic coal mines, owing to a high operating leverage on the back of a 10% production...
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