reports
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Upgrading Communications, Downgrading Staples In our January 10th Compass, we discussed that a break above 3910 on the S&P 500 would signal a tradable rally, with 4100-4165 our target, which is the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range. We believe equities are still in the midst of a rally/short squeeze, but that the rally is likely to fizzle in the 4100-4165 area. Upgrading Communications to Market Weight. We have been underweight Communications (XLC, EWCO) since November of 2021, a peri...
TKC TURKCELL ILETISIM HIZMETLERI A.S. ADS
NWSA NEWS CORPORATION CLASS A
PSO PEARSON PLC ADS
RDED RELX PLC
SPGI S&P GLOBAL INC.
LBTYK LIBERTY GLOBAL PLC CLASS C
NPSNY NASPERS LTD. ADS
TKAGY TELEKOM AUSTRIA AG ADS
DTEA DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG ADS
TRI THOMSON REUTERS CORPORATION
MYTAY MAGYAR TELEKOM TELECOMMUNICATIONS
SCMWY SWISSCOM AG
TLGPY TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED
- Michael Field
Investors in RELX Spook, but We See 1H As Robust
Investors banking on narrow-moat RELX’s dependable organic revenue growth model, which has been increasing at a 4% clip for the last three years, may be alarmed to see the number fall to 3% in the first half of the year. With no obvious operational issues highlighted in the announcement, we believe it is a bit early to panic, and as a result do not plan to make any material changes to our forecasts at this point. We reiterate our GBX 1,510 fair value estimate. We believe the market is currentl...
- Michael Field
Morningstar | Slow and Steady Wins the Race for RELX in 1Q
Narrow-moat RELX’s brief trading update confirmed that the first quarter has offered up no material surprises, with management confirming its full-year outlook. We maintain our forecasts and believe that organic revenue growth just north of 4%, combined with slight operating margin improvement over the course of 2019, is eminently achievable. We also reiterate our GBX 1,510 fair value estimate and believe that as concerns have waned over the threat to the journal business, the shares have once...
- Michael Field
Slow and Steady Wins the Race for RELX in 1Q
Narrow-moat RELX’s brief trading update confirmed that the first quarter has offered up no material surprises, with management confirming its full-year outlook. We maintain our forecasts and believe that organic revenue growth just north of 4%, combined with slight operating margin improvement over the course of 2019, is eminently achievable. We also reiterate our GBX 1,510 fair value estimate and believe that as concerns have waned over the threat to the journal business, the shares have once...
- Michael Field
Morningstar | RELX Company Report
Over the past decade, RELX has undergone wholesale changes to the structure of the company, taking its exposure to electronic-format businesses from 35% to more than double this figure. This change was achieved primarily through a series of targeted acquisitions and disposals, such as that of data aggregator ChoicePoint in early 2008, which subsequently burdened the company with significant debt-service costs. Despite these challenges, the company has managed to significantly drive operating mar...
- Michael Field
RELX Company Report
Narrow-moat RELX published a solid set of full-year results, with organic growth continuing apace at 4%, as currency headwinds pinned back headline growth to 2%. While revenue and operating profit were bang in line with our and the Street’s expectations, a lower-than-expected tax expense for 2018 led to a slight beat on our net income number. We do not expect to make any material changes to our long-term forecasts on the back of these results, nor to our GBX 1,510 fair value estimate. Given th...
- Michael Field
Morningstar | RELX Updated Star Rating from 21 Feb 2019
Narrow-moat RELX published a solid set of full-year results, with organic growth continuing apace at 4%, as currency headwinds pinned back headline growth to 2%. While revenue and operating profit were bang in line with our and the Street’s expectations, a lower-than-expected tax expense for 2018 led to a slight beat on our net income number. We do not expect to make any material changes to our long-term forecasts on the back of these results, nor to our GBX 1,510 fair value estimate. Given th...
- Michael Field
Morningstar | Narrow-Moat RELX Books Solid 2018
Narrow-moat RELX published a solid set of full-year results, with organic growth continuing apace at 4%, as currency headwinds pinned back headline growth to 2%. While revenue and operating profit were bang in line with our and the Street’s expectations, a lower-than-expected tax expense for 2018 led to a slight beat on our net income number. We do not expect to make any material changes to our long-term forecasts on the back of these results, nor to our GBX 1,510 fair value estimate. Given th...
- Michael Field
Narrow-Moat RELX Books Solid 2018
Narrow-moat RELX published a solid set of full-year results, with organic growth continuing apace at 4%, as currency headwinds pinned back headline growth to 2%. While revenue and operating profit were bang in line with our and the Street’s expectations, a lower-than-expected tax expense for 2018 led to a slight beat on our net income number. We do not expect to make any material changes to our long-term forecasts on the back of these results, nor to our GBX 1,510 fair value estimate. Given th...
- Michael Field
Morningstar | No Alarms and No Surprises for RELX in 3Q
Narrow-moat RELX’s nine-month trading update contained nothing in the way of surprises, with underlying revenue growth of 4%, bang in line with our expectations for the full year. The full-year outlook was also unchanged from earlier in the year. We do not expect to make any material changes to our forecasts on the back of these numbers, nor to our GBX 1,510 fair value estimate. We believe the shares are currently up with events. Divisionally there were no real surprises, with the risk & busi...
- Michael Field
No Alarms and No Surprises for RELX in 3Q
Narrow-moat RELX’s nine-month trading update contained nothing in the way of surprises, with underlying revenue growth of 4%, bang in line with our expectations for the full year. The full-year outlook was also unchanged from earlier in the year. We do not expect to make any material changes to our forecasts on the back of these numbers, nor to our GBX 1,510 fair value estimate. We believe the shares are currently up with events. Divisionally there were no real surprises, with the risk & bus.....
- Michael Field
Morningstar | RELX Updated Forecasts and Estimates from 12 Sep 2018
Over the past decade, RELX has undergone wholesale changes to the structure of the company, taking its exposure to electronic-format businesses from 35% to more than double this figure. This change was achieved primarily through a series of targeted acquisitions and disposals, such as that of data aggregator ChoicePoint in early 2008, which subsequently burdened the company with significant debt service costs. Despite these challenges, the company has managed to significantly drive operating mar...
- Michael Field
Morningstar | RELX continues its transition into a business with both ...
Over the past decade, RELX has undergone wholesale changes to the structure of the company, taking its exposure to electronic-format businesses from 35% to more than double this figure. This change was achieved primarily through a series of targeted acquisitions and disposals, such as that of data aggregator ChoicePoint in early 2008, which subsequently burdened the company with significant debt service costs. Despite these challenges, the company has managed to significantly drive operating mar...
- Michael Field
RELX continues its transition into a business with both a moat and gro...
As per usual, there were very few surprises from publishing colossus narrow-moat RELX, with underlying revenue growth of 4%, operating profit growth of 6% and earnings growth of 7%, very much in line with the 4-6-8 model that investors have come to expect of late. The first-half numbers were also on track to meet our full-year forecasts; as such, we do not expect to make any material changes to our numbers or to our GBX 1,510 fair value estimate. We believe the current share price is fully up wi...
- Michael Field
Morningstar | RELX continues its transition into a business with both ...
Over the past decade, RELX has undergone wholesale changes to the structure of the company, taking its exposure to electronic-format businesses from 35% to more than double this figure. This change was achieved primarily through a series of targeted acquisitions and disposals, such as that of data aggregator ChoicePoint in early 2008, which subsequently burdened the company with significant debt service costs. Despite these challenges, the company has managed to significantly drive operating mar...
- Michael Field
RELX continues its transition into a business with both a moat and gro...
As per usual, there were very few surprises from publishing colossus narrow-moat RELX, with underlying revenue growth of 4%, operating profit growth of 6% and earnings growth of 7%, very much in line with the 4-6-8 model that investors have come to expect of late. The first-half numbers were also on track to meet our full-year forecasts; as such, we do not expect to make any material changes to our numbers or to our GBX 1,510 fair value estimate. We believe the current share price is fully up wi...
- Michael Field
Morningstar | RELX Doesn't Disappoint in First Half
As per usual, there were very few surprises from publishing colossus narrow-moat RELX, with underlying revenue growth of 4%, operating profit growth of 6% and earnings growth of 7%, very much in line with the 4-6-8 model that investors have come to expect of late. The first-half numbers were also on track to meet our full-year forecasts; as such, we do not expect to make any material changes to our numbers or to our GBX 1,510 fair value estimate. We believe the current share price is fully up wi...
- Michael Field
RELX Doesn't Disappoint in First Half
As per usual, there were very few surprises from publishing colossus narrow-moat RELX, with underlying revenue growth of 4%, operating profit growth of 6% and earnings growth of 7%, very much in line with the 4-6-8 model that investors have come to expect of late. The first-half numbers were also on track to meet our full-year forecasts; as such, we do not expect to make any material changes to our numbers or to our GBX 1,510 fair value estimate. We believe the current share price is fully up wi...
- Hendrik Wiersma
- Jeroen van den Broek
- Job Veenendaal
- Marina Le Blanc
- Nadège Tillier
- Suvi Platerink Kosonen
Coffee, Croissants & Credit/RELX acquires ThreatMetrix for £580m in c...
RELX (RELLN) announced the acquisition of ThreatMetrix for £580m in cash this morning. The US based company will become part of RELX's Risk & Business Analytics division. The acquisition is expected to close in 1H18 and is subject to customary regulatory approvals and is not expected to have a material impact on RELX's 2018 earnings. We view this transaction as neutral to spreads as we believe it can be executed within the company's financial policy.
- Michael Field
RELX Publishes Solid 3Q, Shares Up With Events Though
Narrow-moat RELX’s third-quarter trading update was almost bang in line with our full-year expectations. Underlying revenue growth stood at 4%, in line with 2016 full-year growth. Management have also reiterated their full-year guidance. We do not expect to make any changes to our forecasts, nor to our GBX 1400 fair value estimate for the U.K.-listed shares. We believe the shares are moderately overvalued. Divisionally, there were no real surprises, with each of the four divisions continuing a...
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