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Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Cyclical Value Areas Improving -- Add Exposure Cyclical value areas are starting to play catch-up as interest rates show signs of bottoming -- all kickstarted by Friday's better-than-expected employment report. We see many actionable opportunities, particularly within the Financial and Materials Sectors, and also several retail stocks within Consumer Discretionary. As we noted last week, despite mixed signals from the market, there continues to be an absence of breakdowns at the index and Secto...

Kazunori Ito
  • Kazunori Ito

Morningstar | Steady Progress on User Engagement Will Drive LINE’s A...

Our impression of LINE’s March quarter results is mixed. On the positive side, we believe that LINE’s improving indicators suggest the strength of its ecosystem, to which we cannot find any competitors in Japan. On the negative side, the revenue growth of ad business is slightly lower than our expectation. However, we are not concerned about the long-term growth of the company, as we are impressed with LINE’s strategy to expand its ad revenue by leveraging its ecosystem. We thus retain our...

Kazunori Ito
  • Kazunori Ito

Steady Progress on User Engagement Will Drive LINE’s Ad Revenue in t...

Our impression of LINE’s March quarter results is mixed. On the positive side, we believe that LINE’s improving indicators suggest the strength of its ecosystem, to which we cannot find any competitors in Japan. On the negative side, the revenue growth of ad business is slightly lower than our expectation. However, we are not concerned about the long-term growth of the company, as we are impressed with LINE’s strategy to expand its ad revenue by leveraging its ecosystem. We thus retain our...

Kazunori Ito
  • Kazunori Ito

Morningstar | LN Updated Star Rating from 28 Feb 2019

We revise Line’s fair value estimate from JPY 5,000 to JPY 5,400 per share, and from $45 to $49 per U.S. ADR, as we consider its revenue growth will exceed our original forecasts. We acknowledge a strong network effect from Line’s ecosystem, which is covering more than 90% of smartphone users in Japan, Taiwan, and Thailand, and because of the impressive progress in user engagement, we are more confident that Line will succeed in monetizing. We view that Line’s share price will be volatile ...

Kazunori Ito
  • Kazunori Ito

Morningstar | Improving User Engagement Will Drive Future Monetization...

We revise Line’s fair value estimate from JPY 5,000 to JPY 5,400 per share, and from $45 to $49 per U.S. ADR, as we consider its revenue growth will exceed our original forecasts. We acknowledge a strong network effect from Line’s ecosystem, which is covering more than 90% of smartphone users in Japan, Taiwan, and Thailand, and because of the impressive progress in user engagement, we are more confident that Line will succeed in monetizing. We view that Line’s share price will be volatile ...

Kazunori Ito
  • Kazunori Ito

Improving User Engagement Will Drive Future Monetization; Lift Line’...

We revise Line’s fair value estimate from JPY 5,000 to JPY 5,400 per share, and from $45 to $49 per U.S. ADR, as we consider its revenue growth will exceed our original forecasts. We acknowledge a strong network effect from Line’s ecosystem, which is covering more than 90% of smartphone users in Japan, Taiwan, and Thailand, and because of the impressive progress in user engagement, we are more confident that Line will succeed in monetizing. We view that Line’s share price will be volatile ...

Kazunori Ito
  • Kazunori Ito

Morningstar | While Line’s Quarterly Results Are Disappointing, Indi...

We expect the stagnation of Line’s advertisement business to disappoint the market in the short run. Cost per mille, or CPM (advertisement revenue paid over 1,000 impressions) dropped to JPY 380 from JPY 434 in the previous quarter and JPY 491 in the prior-year period, as an increase in overseas ads and the transition to new ad platforms worsened the product mix. As a result, display ad revenue growth in the September quarter was 13%, representing a slowdown from 62% in the June quarter; conse...

Kazunori Ito
  • Kazunori Ito

Morningstar | While Line’s Quarterly Results Are Disappointing, Indi...

We expect the stagnation of Line’s advertisement business to disappoint the market in the short run. Cost per mille, or CPM (advertisement revenue paid over 1,000 impressions) dropped to JPY 380 from JPY 434 in the previous quarter and JPY 491 in the prior-year period, as an increase in overseas ads and the transition to new ad platforms worsened the product mix. As a result, display ad revenue growth in the September quarter was 13%, representing a slowdown from 62% in the June quarter; conse...

Kazunori Ito
  • Kazunori Ito

While Line’s Quarterly Results Are Disappointing, Indicators Suggest...

We expect the stagnation of Line’s advertisement business to disappoint the market in the short run. Cost per mille, or CPM (advertisement revenue paid over 1,000 impressions) dropped to JPY 380 from JPY 434 in the previous quarter and JPY 491 in the prior-year period, as an increase in overseas ads and the transition to new ad platforms worsened the product mix. As a result, display ad revenue growth in the September quarter was 13%, representing a slowdown from 62% in the June quarter; conse...

Kazunori Ito
  • Kazunori Ito

Morningstar | Line's Advertisement Overseas Business Appears to Pick u...

While increasing marketing and personnel costs depress Line's profitability in the short term, we are encouraged by the robust growth of its advertisement business. We view the growth as demonstrating the strength of Line's network effect, which is the source of our narrow moat rating. In particular, 20% increase on ads impressions from the March quarter suggests that ads business in overseas may pick up much faster than we had anticipated, and in fact, overseas revenue proportion in the June qu...

Kazunori Ito
  • Kazunori Ito

Line's Advertisement Overseas Business Appears to Pick up Faster than ...

While increasing marketing and personnel costs depress Line's profitability in the short term, we are encouraged by the robust growth of its advertisement business. We view the growth as demonstrating the strength of Line's network effect, which is the source of our narrow moat rating. In particular, 20% increase on ads impressions from the March quarter suggests that ads business in overseas may pick up much faster than we had anticipated, and in fact, overseas revenue proportion in the June qu...

 PRESS RELEASE

LINE Corporation: Announcement of Additional Information of Summary of...

TOKYO--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- LINE Corporation (NYSE:LN) (TOKYO:3938) (Headquarters: Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, Japan; Representative Director and President: Takeshi Idezawa) announces additional information for the "Summary of Consolidated Financial Results for the Three Months Ended March 31, 2018" announced on April 25, 2018, as follows. The new information is in the following: 1. Interim condensed consolidated financial statements (1) ...

Kazunori Ito
  • Kazunori Ito

Robust Ad Revenue Growth Implies the Strength of Line’s Network Effe...

While Line’s operating income for the March quarter was below our forecast, the revenue growth of the company was in line with our numbers, which we think demonstrates the strength of Line’s network effect, the source of our narrow economic moat rating. Line disclosed that its monthly active users figure in Japan was 75 million in the March quarter, 2 million above the previous quarter, and 7 million up on the year-on-year basis, which suggests that Line’s user base covers more than 90% of...

 PRESS RELEASE

LINE Corporation Files Its Annual Report on Form 20-F and Amendment No...

TOKYO--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- On March 30, 2018, LINE Corporation (NYSE:LN) (TOKYO:3938) filed its Annual Report on Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2017 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Subsequently, LINE Corporation filed an Amendment No. 1 to the Annual Report with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on April 18, 2018. The 2017 Annual Report on Form 20-F and Amendment No. 1 to the Annual Report can be downloaded from www.linecorp.com, as well as from the website of the U.S. Securities and Exchange ...

 PRESS RELEASE

LINE Corporation Announces Summary of Consolidated Financial Results f...

TOKYO--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- LINE Corporation (NYSE: LN) (TOKYO: 3938) announces the summary of its consolidated financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2018. This is an English translation of the original Japanese-language document. Should there be any inconsistency between the translation and the original Japanese text, the latter shall prevail. All references to the “Company,” “we,” “us” or “our” shall mean LINE Corporation and, unless the context otherwise requires, its consolidated subsidiaries. ...

 PRESS RELEASE

LINE Financial Corporation, a Consolidated Subsidiary of LINE Corporat...

TOKYO--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- LINE Financial Corporation (hereinafter "LINE Financial"), a consolidated subsidiary of LINE Corporation (hereinafter the "Company"), announces today that it has made a resolution to issue new shares to the Company through a third-party allocation of new shares, with such shares to be underwritten by the Company.Since the total capitalization of LINE Finance will become equivalent to ten-hundredths or greater of the Company's total capitalization once the third-party allocation of new shares to increase capita...

Kazunori Ito
  • Kazunori Ito

While heavy investment drags down short-term profitability, progress o...

We raise our fair value estimate for Line to JPY 5,400 per share and $50 per U.S. ADR, from JPY 4,800 and $42 per U.S. ADR, respectively. While the share price dropped approximately 10% after the earnings meeting, in which management indicated it would not focus on improving operating margin and would continue to invest over the next few years, we are encouraged by the strong revenue growth momentum in the December quarter. We therefore believe that Line’s narrow economic moat, which is based ...

 PRESS RELEASE

Update to Previously Disclosed Items: LINE MOBILE Corporation, a Conso...

TOKYO--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- As previously announced in the January 31, 2018 release titled "Notice of Execution of Memorandum of Understanding for Strategic Alliance by a Consolidated Subsidiary and Prospect of Change to Subsidiary," LINE MOBILE Corporation (hereinafter "LINE MOBILE"), a consolidated subsidiary of LINE Corporation (hereinafter the "Company"), hereby announces that today it has executed an agreement with SoftBank Corp. (hereinafter "SoftBank") regarding a capital alliance wherein SoftBank will underwrite a third-party all...

 PRESS RELEASE

LINE Corporation Acquires Shares Accompanying Transfer of Subsidiary

TOKYO--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- LINE Corporation (NYSE:LN) (TOKYO:3938) (Headquarters: Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, Japan; Representative Director and CEO: Takeshi Idezawa; the “Company”) announces as follows that it will acquire all shares in FIVE Inc. (hereinafter “FIVE”), making it a subsidiary of the Company. As this transaction does not fall under the timely disclosure standards set forth by the Tokyo Stock Exchange, a portion of the disclosure items and details have been omitted. 1. Reasons for this Share AcquisitionSince the full-scal...

 PRESS RELEASE

LINE Corporation Announces Consolidated Financial Results for the Nine...

TOKYO--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- LINE Corporation (NYSE:LN) (TOKYO:3938) announces its consolidated financial results for the nine months ended September 30, 2017. [This is an English translation of the original Japanese-language document. Should there be any inconsistency between the translation and the original Japanese text, the latter shall prevail. All references to the “Company,” “we,” “us,” or “our” shall mean LINE Corporation and, unless the context otherwise requires, its consolidated subsidiaries.] Cautionary state...

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