reports
- Egor Fedorov
- James Wilson
EM Credit Spark/EM credit weekly
After some relief for markets on the data front this week, a period of quiet in terms of macro news should offer a further window for new supply to come from EM issuers ahead of an expected summer lull. Spread levels remain well anchored and EM credit should continue to see robust demand from yield-seeking investors.
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: CGEO LN; ELPE GA; GPW PW; BOCH CY; ALPHA GA; EUROB GA; BFT...
HEADLINES: • Georgia Capital: announces two new buyback programmes POSITIVE • HELLENiQ Energy: 1Q24 results – mildly above expectations POSITIVE • Warsaw Stock Exchange: bottom-line miss and further margin compression in the 1Q24 results NEGATIVE • Bank of Cyprus: 1Q24 highlights POSITIVE • Alpha Services and Holdings: 1Q24 highlights – trading-related beat, but NIM and fees evolve better than expected • Eurobank Ergasias Services: 1Q24 highlights – helped by trading income, but good quarter ove...
KRKG KRKA D.D.
MTELEKOM MAGYAR TELEKOM TELECOMMUNICATIONS
PKN POLSKI KONCERN NAFTOWY ORLEN S.A.
LOGO LOGO YAZILIM SANAYI VE TICARET A.S.
BFT BENEFIT SYSTEMS S.A. ALLOTMENT
ALPHA ALPHA BANK AE
MBR MO-BRUK S.A.
GPW WARSAW STOCK EXCHANGE
11B 11 BIT STUDIOS S.A.
BANK OF CYPRUS PCL
CGEO GEORGIA CAPITAL
CZG CESKA ZBROJOVKA GROUP
4IG 4IG NYRT
AROBS AROBS TRANSILVANIA SOFTWARE SA
ELPE HELLENIQ ENERGY
- Miguel Dias
WOOD Flash – Banca Transilvania: NIM resilience and strong loan book e...
Overall, we see the bank’s 1Q24 results as positive. Despite the core pre-provision profit coming in largely in line with our expectations, we view the resilience of the NIM and the strong loan book expansion as constructive. The bargain gain was a positive surprise and, together with the very low COR, provided most of the c.27% bottom-line beat vs. our expectations.
- Gabor Bukta
OTP beat estimates in Q1
OTP reported higher than expected profit for Q1/24. Consolidated PAT totalled HUF 240bn(+8% vs. consensus), driven by improving NIM QoQ, cost efficiency and credit quality.Total risk cost surprisingly comprised HUF +7bn, massively beating analysts’ expectationsof HUF -20bn and our estimate of HUF -25bn) due to provision releases in OTP Core, CRand UKR, offset by UZB, RU and RO. Importantly, Uzbekistan risk cost dropped two-thirdQoQ. Total assets grew +5% QoQ to HUF 41,482bn), driven by a 1% incr...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: TLV RO; ADNOCDRI UH; OTKAR TI; TBCG LN; ELM AB; ISCTR TI; ...
HEADLINES: • Banca Transilvania: NIM resilience and strong loan book expansion the key positives of 1Q24 bottom-line beat, on non-recurring revenue, low provisions and a one-off POSITIVE • ADNOC Drilling: 1Q24 results – new venture and updated dividend policy POSITIVE • Otokar: lacklustre 1Q24 results, but strong backlog NEGATIVE • TBC Bank: 1Q24 results and conference call NEUTRAL • Elm: mixed 1Q24 financial results NEGATIVE • Isbank: 1Q24 highlights – margin pressure worsening • Polish banks: ...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: MBK PW; OTP HB; MIL PW; CCC PW; DNP PW; EAT PW; MOL HB; M ...
HEADLINES: • mBank: solid 1Q24 results justify one of the top market valuations (1Q24 P/BV of 2.1x) POSITIVE • OTP Bank: books solid 1Q24, keeps 2024E guidance unchanged NEUTRAL • Bank Millennium: 1Q24 results in line • CCC: 40% EBITDA beat in 1Q24, on opex control POSITIVE • Dino: 2-7% EBITDA miss in 1Q24 NEGATIVE • AmRest: 1Q24 broadly in line with our forecasts, but below the consensus NEGATIVE • MOL: 1Q24 results – EBITDA below expectations on maintenance NEUTRAL • MedLife: 1Q24 results poin...
MOL MOL NYRT
HTO HELLENIC TELECOMMUNICATIONS ORGANIZATION SA
MIL BANK MILLENNIUM SA
MTELEKOM MAGYAR TELEKOM TELECOMMUNICATIONS
CCC CCC SA
OTP OTP BANK NYRT
11B 11 BIT STUDIOS S.A.
DIGI DIGI COMMUNICATIONS NV
DNP DINO POLSKA S.A.
BVB S.C. BURSA DE VALORI BUCURESTI S.A.
M MED LIFE
EAT AMREST HOLDINGS SE
4IG 4IG NYRT
7202 ARABIAN INTERNET & COMMUNICATIONS SERVICES CO
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: BDX PW; EU Oil & Gas Monthly; BHW PW; PKO PW; MIL PW; CAR ...
HEADLINES: • Budimex: 1Q24 EBIT 13% above our forecast on solid gross margin, but broadly in line with the consensus POSITIVE • European oil and gas monthly: April 2024 – margins retreating • Bank Handlowy: to pay PLN 10/share dividend NEUTRAL • PKO BP: estimates cost of credit holidays extension at PLN 489m NEUTRAL • Bank Millennium: expects a PLN 201-247m impact from the 2024E credit holidays extension for PLN mortgagors NEUTRAL • Inter Cars: April sales recover by 19.5% yoy POSITIVE • MOL: 1Q...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: ING PW; SOLUTION AB; EME Macro/Strategy weekly; HUG PW; TE...
HEADLINES: • ING BSK: 1Q24 results softer than demanding market expectations, but our medium-term outlook confirmed NEGATIVE • Solutions by STC: mixed 1Q24 financial results NEUTRAL • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (29 April-5 May) • Huuuge Games: April bookings estimate at USD 11m, down 21% mom NEGATIVE • Ten Square Games: April bookings estimate down 20% mom NEGATIVE • 11 bit studios: INDIKA release attracts very positive reviews on Steam, but low peak in number of players NEGATIVE • Cyf...
BSK ING BANK SLASKI S.A.
MTELEKOM MAGYAR TELEKOM TELECOMMUNICATIONS
CPS CYFROWY POLSAT SA
11B 11 BIT STUDIOS S.A.
WPL WIRTUALNA POLSKA HOLDING SA
ADNOCDIST ADNOC DISTRIBUTION PJSC
TEN TEN SQUARE GAMES
HUGE HUUUGE
7202 ARABIAN INTERNET & COMMUNICATIONS SERVICES CO
- Research Team
The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: all geographies in the green in Ap...
EME Equity Market – April 2024 Market performance – green across all geographies, with Turkey outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index was up 5.3% mom in EUR terms and 4.2% mom in USD in April; while the Turkish ISE30 saw the strongest performance, adding 11.6% mom; followed by the Hungarian BUX (+5.0% mom); the Czech PX (+2.8% mom); the Greek ASE (+1.8% mom), the Polish WIG20 (+1.2% mom) and the Romanian BET (+0.1% mom) (all in EUR terms).
EUROB EUROBANK ERGASIAS SERVICES & HOLDINGS SA
PEO BANK POLSKA KASA OPIEKI SA
JMT JERONIMO MARTINS SGPS S.A.
KRU KRUK S.A.
MOL MOL NYRT
EBS ERSTE GROUP BANK AG
CEZ CEZ AS
OMV OMV AG
PKO PKO BANK POLSKI S.A.
ALK ALKALOID AD SKOPJE
SPL SANTANDER BANK POLSKA SA
MIL BANK MILLENNIUM SA
BSK ING BANK SLASKI S.A.
BDX BUDIMEX S.A.
LAMDA LAMDA DEVELOPMENT S.A.
TPS ORANGE POLSKA S.A.
PKN POLSKI KONCERN NAFTOWY ORLEN S.A.
LPP LPP S.A.
ASELS ASELSAN ELEKTRONIK SANAYI VE TICARET A.S. CLASS B
CCC CCC SA
CCOLA COCA-COLA ICECEK A.S.
GTC GLOBE TRADE CENTRE S.A.
2310 SAHARA INTERNATIONAL PETROCHEMICAL COMPANY
DOM DOM DEVELOPMENT SA
AEGN AEGEAN AIRLINES SA
BFT BENEFIT SYSTEMS S.A. ALLOTMENT
PGE PGE POLSKA GRUPA ENERGETYCZNA S.A.
PGSUS.E PEGASUS HAVA TASIMACILIGI AS
APR AUTO PARTNER SA
TPEIR PIRAEUS BANK SA
ALPHA ALPHA BANK AE
PPC PUBLIC POWER CORPORATION S.A.
OTP OTP BANK NYRT
CAR INTER CARS S.A.
ARCLK ARCELIK A.S.
FROTO FORD OTOMOTIV SANAYI A.S.
THYAO TURK HAVA YOLLARI A.O.
TUPRS TURKIYE PETROL RAFINERILERI A.S.
EUR EUROCASH S.A.
CPS CYFROWY POLSAT SA
MBR MO-BRUK S.A.
GPW WARSAW STOCK EXCHANGE
11B 11 BIT STUDIOS S.A.
ALR ALIOR BANK SA
OTOEL AUTOHELLAS S.A.
VGO VIGO SYSTEM SA
WPL WIRTUALNA POLSKA HOLDING SA
TLV BANCA TRANSILVANIA S.A.
MONET MONETA MONEY BANK AS
H4L1 HALYK SAVINGS BANK OF KAZAKHSTAN GDR
SNP PETROM S.A.
DIGI DIGI COMMUNICATIONS NV
DNP DINO POLSKA S.A.
NBGGY NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE S.A. ADS
SNN SOCIETATEA NATIONALA NUCLEARELECTRICA SA
ELSA SOCIETATEA ENERGETICA ELECTRICA
GEB BANK OF GEORGIA
M MED LIFE
ADNOCDIST ADNOC DISTRIBUTION PJSC
SOKM SOK MARKETLER TICARET AS
KAP NATIONAL ATOMIC COMPANY KAZATOMPROM
TEN TEN SQUARE GAMES
ALG ALLEGRO.EU SA
CZG CESKA ZBROJOVKA GROUP
KSPI KASPI KZ
INPST INPOST S.A.
HUGE HUUUGE
PCO PEPCO GROUP NV
GPP KAZMUNAYGAS NC JSC
KLKIM GRUPA PRACUJ DA
ADNOCDRILL KALEKIM KIMYEVI MADDELER SANAYI VE TICARET AS
AROBS ADNOC DRILLING CO
2381 AROBS TRANSILVANIA SOFTWARE SA
9526 ARABIAN DRILLING CO.
SHO JAHEZ INTERNATIONAL CO
BOROUGE SHOPER SA
AIRA BOROUGE
GEV AIR ASTANA JSC
GEVORKYAN A.S.
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: SPL PW; PEO PW; PCF PW; EBS AV; OMV AV; BOROUGE UH; SNP RO...
HEADLINES: • Santander Bank Polska: 1Q24 results – 19%+ headline ROE affected only slightly by FX mortgage saga costs • Bank Pekao: 1Q24 results in line with market's expectations NEUTRAL • PCF Group: 4Q23 headlines hit heavily by write-offs, but a more limited EBITDA loss than we had expected NEUTRAL • Erste Bank: 1Q24 results NEUTRAL • OMV: 1Q24 results – chemicals stronger than expected NEUTRAL • Borouge: 1Q24 results – better than expected POSITIVE • OMV Petrom: 1Q24 results NEUTRAL • Garan...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: ARCLK TI; SIPCHEM AB; KRU PW; EME Macro/Strategy Weekly; T...
HEADLINES: • Arcelik: weak bottom-line performance in 1Q24 NEGATIVE • Sipchem: 1Q24 results – weak net income NEGATIVE • Kruk: issues flash 1Q24 net profit of PLN 338m NEUTRAL • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (22-28 April) • Türkiye macro: MPC takes a pause, but hiking cycle not over yet • OTP Bank: CEO Csanyi speaks at AGM on future acquisitions and Russian exposure POSITIVE • Budimex: BXF Energia acquires 60 MW photovoltaic project NEUTRAL • Inter Cars: dividend policy for 2023-25E and p...
- Gabor Bukta
- Szabolcs Pal
CEE Banks – Great opportunities with different risk profiles
The CEE region is expected to deliver a moderate rebound of GDP growth in 2024,following the preceding year’s weak growth, fuelling expectations of sustainable profits inthe banking sector. Inflation is seen to be twin faced in our region, similar to most of the coreeconomies. Even with a diminished potential for much intra-year improvement of the inflationpath in 2024, this inflation provides several CEE central banks more room to cut policy ratesthis year. Lower interest rates are expected to ...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: JMT PL; CAR PW; MBR PW; SHO PW; TL Macro; UZ Macro; PL Ban...
HEADLINES: • Jeronimo Martins: small beat in 1Q24 NEUTRAL • Inter Cars: 4Q23 net profit in line with prelims, a miss vs. our initial forecasts due to lower gross margin NEUTRAL • Mo-BRUK: 4Q23 earnings call takeaways – supportive 2024E outlook POSITIVE • Shoper: earnings call takeaways – strong April, optimistic on 2024E outlook POSITIVE • Türkiye macro: MPC takes a pause, but hiking cycle not over yet • Uzbekistan macro: CBU keeps rates on hold • Polish banks: Polish Supreme Court reconfirms th...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: MONET CP; ALR PW; SHO PW; MBR PW; WIZZ LN; ASELS TI; OPL P...
HEADLINES: • MONETA Money Bank: strong 1Q24 delivery, on better-than- expected revenues POSITIVE • Alior Bank: books small beat on 1Q24 delivery, driven by low credit risk charges; robust 2024E outlook supported POSITIVE • Shoper: 1Q24 adjusted EBITDA 9% above our expectations; FY23 results in line with prelims POSITIVE • Mo-BRUK: 4% miss vs. our 4Q23 adjusted EBITDA forecast, weak cash flows NEGATIVE • Wizz Air: fiscal 2024 post-close trading update POSITIVE • Aselsan: CEO's comments on exports...
TPS ORANGE POLSKA S.A.
ASELS ASELSAN ELEKTRONIK SANAYI VE TICARET A.S. CLASS B
CCC CCC SA
11B 11 BIT STUDIOS S.A.
ALR ALIOR BANK SA
VGO VIGO SYSTEM SA
MONET MONETA MONEY BANK AS
EAT AMREST HOLDINGS SE
TEN TEN SQUARE GAMES
INPST INPOST S.A.
SHO SHOPER SA
BOROUGE BOROUGE
AIRA AIR ASTANA JSC
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: KSPI LI; KRU PW; TUPRS TI; TL Banks; SIPCHEM AB; JMT PL; E...
HEADLINES: • Kaspi.kz: 1Q24 highlights Kruk: buys more portfolios in Italy • Tupras: launches USD 256m propylene investment NEUTRAL • Turkish banks: coverage UNDER REVIEW • Sipchem: 1Q24E results preview (due on 25 April) NEUTRAL • Jeronimo Martins: 1Q24E results preview – 11% yoy EBITDA growth expected (due on 26 April, before the open) • Erste Bank: 1Q24E preview (due on 30 April) • BRD-GSG: 1Q24E preview (due on 2 May) NEUTRAL • PKO BP: 1Q24E preview (due on 9 May) • Banca Transilvania: 1Q24E...
KRU KRUK S.A.
EBS ERSTE GROUP BANK AG
CDR CD PROJEKT S.A.
PKO PKO BANK POLSKI S.A.
MIL BANK MILLENNIUM SA
2310 SAHARA INTERNATIONAL PETROCHEMICAL COMPANY
TUPRS TURKIYE PETROL RAFINERILERI A.S.
BRD BRD-GROUPE SOCIETE GENERALE
TLV BANCA TRANSILVANIA S.A.
TEN TEN SQUARE GAMES
KSPI KASPI KZ
HUGE HUUUGE
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: SOKM TI, CAR PW, PL telecoms, PL media, SNP RO
HEADLINES: • Sok Marketler: weak performance in the 4Q23 results • Inter Cars: targets 15-17% yoy revenue growth this year • Polish telecoms: telecommunications fee to grow from 0.05% of sales to 0.15% sales • Polish media: CPS audience share at 21.53%, WP TV at 0.61% in March 2024 • OMV Petrom: 1Q24E results preview (due out 30 April)
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: PGSUS TI, 11B PW, VGO PW, GPP PW, APR PW, CCC PW, KAP TI
• Pegasus Airlines: 1Q24 traffic - international ASK up 85% vs. 1Q19 • 11 bit studios: Frostpunk 2 Beta now available for seven days, first gameplay deep dive trailer released • VIGO Photonics: 1Q24 sales down 16% yoy to PLN 15.8m • Grupa Pracuj: new online job ads number down 19% yoy in March 2024 • Auto Partner: earnings call takeaways - solid FY24E outlook maintained, despite disappointing March sales • CCC: key takeaways from the recent site visit • Kazatomprom: awarded a licence for Rare Ea...
- Lukasz Wachelko
- CFA
WOOD Flash - CCC: key takeaways from the recent site visit
Last week (10-12 April) we attended a site visit at CCC’s HQ, which presented new collections and discussed new agreements with suppliers, including exclusive licences. After a long struggle with excess and outdated inventories, over 90% of its stock now comes from fresh collections. Moreover, new supply agreements, including licences with Reebok, Hunter, Nine West, Kappa and Mexx, and renegotiated deals with the remaining suppliers, coupled with the “circle” mechanism of co-financing the sell-d...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: ADNOCDRI UH; ARABIAND AB; PPC GA; KRU PW; BDX PW; PL Utili...
HEADLINES: • Middle Eastern Oil Services: we’re going with what’s growing (ADNOC Drilling upgraded to BUY, Arabian Drilling downgraded to HOLD) • Public Power Corporation: 4Q23 earnings review NEUTRAL • Kruk: 1Q24 trading update shows strong recoveries POSITIVE • Budimex: 4Q23 figures in line with the preliminary guidance NEUTRAL • Budimex: management recommends PLN 35.69 DPS (5% dividend yield), above our expectations POSITIVE • Polish utilities: Industry Ministry plans to link mines to coal-fi...
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